Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -1.7% 2) Digital Health -1.6% 3) Computer Services -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BRBR, CHH, TSN, TMCI, APD, A, GPRE, KFRC, SWKS, DRS, USM, BNTX, W, LITE, SLVM, AHCO, HSIC, IFF, ACCD, YOU, GFS, WAT, TSE, JKS, HIMS, RPD, HAIN, CERT, WMG, MRVI, CRNC, PYPL, TALO, PRAA and OMH
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWC 2) APRN 3) WM 4) SWKS 5) PLTR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PLUG 2) PYPL 3) LCID 4) FSR 5) DDD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Defense +1.0% 2) Oil Service +.8% 3) Construction +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VYGR, SHLS, NEO, HLIT, JELD, INTA, TH, DVA, SAVA, TCMD, BSY, TREX, PGNY, MCK, TMDX, ATSG, GVA, EPC, CVNA, COCO, HOLX, ZS, J and PINC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IAG 2) ARRY 3) BEKE 4) MERC 5) EWJ

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PLTR 2) SHLS 3) GENI 4) HLIT 5) DVA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BCO)/1.10
• (COHR)/.82
• (EBIX)/.19
• (GDFRX)/-.01
• (NYT)/.17
• (PFGC)/.71
• (RBLX)/-.40
• (TEVA)/.55
• (TUP)/.11
• (VSH)/.56
• (WEN)/.20
• (WWW)/.03
  

After the Close: 

• (DOX)/1.47
• (BYND)/-1.02
• (CAKE)/.59
• (CR)/.85
• (JAZZ)/4.22
• (PAAS)/.02
• (HOOD)/-.49
• (STE)/2.15
• (TTD)/.12
• (U)/-.02
• (DIS)/.94
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for April is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.1% gain in March.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in March.
• The CPI YoY for April is estimated to rise +5.0% versus a +5.0% gain in March.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for April.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,108,710 barrels versus a -1,281,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,011,860 barrels versus a +1,742,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -821,710 barrels versus a -1,190,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.66% versus a -.6% decline the prior week.

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for April is estimated to fall to $235.0B versus $308.2B in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China CPI report, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Canaccord Genuity Metals/Mining Conference and the (AB) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -6.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 +.5
  
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 34.2% of Issues Advancing, 62.7% Declining
• 27 New 52-Week Highs, 56 New Lows
• 39.0%(-2.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 -3
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.6 -.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,318.0 +.2%
• 1-Day Vix 10.7 -5.8%
  
• Vix 17.7 +4.5% 
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -25.2%
• TRIN/Arms .90 +20.0%
  

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.75 -2.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 76.0 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.7 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.0 +1.8%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .00 -4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.0 +.31%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.14%.

• S&P 500 futures -.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, FANG+ Stock Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.1 -.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .59%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.0 +1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 155.5 -.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.74 -.71%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.6 -3.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .95 +2.2%

• NYSE Arms .60 +3.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.4 +.11%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 409.7 -.13%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 415.0 -13.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.98 +.18% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 377.5 -.16%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 192.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.58 -1.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 250.25 +.96%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.5 -.41%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 13.5 basis points +7.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.5 +.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 166.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 710.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.21% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.6 -1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.3 -5.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.0 +1.1 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.97 +.25:  Growth Rate +2.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.1 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.55 -4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -50.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.75% +9.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.66% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 58.5%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 47.0%(-4.4 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +99 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +73 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long