Stocks Higher into Close on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Nvidia AI Conference, Technical Buying, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.3 -.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .33 -52.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.1 +2.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 175.7 -.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.2 +.65%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.5 +.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 143.0 +9.0
  

• Total Put/Call .90 +13.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.14 +16.3%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$4.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.2 -1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 286.1 -.98%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 255 -7
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.6 -.7% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 179.2 -.57%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 122.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.3 +1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.2 -.78%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 114.2 -1.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.04%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points +1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 151.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 808.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.8 -.41%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.8 euros/megawatt-hour +6.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.0 -1.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +16.5% n/a
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 248.68 +.23:  Growth Rate +11.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.82% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +55.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 316.98 +.17: Growth Rate +31.9% unch., P/E 31.2 -.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.12 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -40.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.3% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 51.9% -4.6 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% unch.: CPI YoY +3.33% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 96.8%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 56.1%(+.9 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -265 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -31 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +267 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware -1.3% 2) Alt Energy -1.3% 3) Disk Drives -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• OLMA, AU, ARCO, GLOB, SONO, APGE, MEI, NTCT, MP, LOGI, DRCT, NMRA, AVD, SBGI, RILY, ARCT, RBLX, FOUR, BMEA, SMCI, SAIC, CDLX, LI, MSTR, CRGX and GCT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FCEL 2) BITF 3) AMLX 4) ACWI 5) WBD
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) JOAN 2) FSR 3) KIND 4) AMLX 5) FOUR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Internet +1.3% 2) Gambling +1.2% 3) Foods +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SMR, ROOT, TILE, HCP, ATMU, GOOG, MDGL, ATXS, VITL, ADBE, VRT and GPS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GOEV 2) ACB 3) VLY 4) EH 5) DLO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SMR 2) HCP 3) TLS 4) APP 5) LVO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (TME)/.90

After the Close: 

• (ZTO)/2.68

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Feb. is estimated to rise to 1430K versus 1331K in Jan.
• Building Permits for Feb. is estimated to rise to 1500K versus 1489K in Jan.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, 20Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, (NVDA) analyst meeting, (TTC) annual meeting, (POOL) investor day, Keybanc Life Sciences/Medtech Conference and the BofA Industrials Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.1 +4.5
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 55.2% of Issues Advancing, 41.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.37 +39.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$72.3M
  
• 88 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 58.7% (+1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 unch.
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.7 +1.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 140.84 -.23%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,207.1 +1.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 74.0 (Greed) +3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.3 -21.5%
  
• Vix 14.3 -.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 +19.0%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Putin Warns Russia Won’t Be Stopped After Record Election Win.
• BOJ Rate Hike on Tuesday Is Now Widely Expected After Wages Jump.
• Netanyahu Pushes Back on Schumer’s ‘Inappropriate’ Criticisms.
• Frontier Markets Win Over Bond Investors With ‘Radical Shift’. 
• Stocks Gain Led by Japan on BOJ Rate Hike Momentum. 
• Oil Holds Weekly Advance After More Russian Refineries Attacked.
• Iron Ore Swings Near $100 a Ton With China Concerns to the Fore.
• Grocery Prices Have Soared. That’s Spoiling Biden’s Economic Pitch.
• Boeing’s Pain Spreads to Travelers as Airlines Cut Back on Plans.
• Boeing Troubles Threaten to Worsen Airlines’ Bear Market Blues.
• TSMC Bulls Ignore Buffett’s Warning for Bet on Coming AI Age.
• Apple’s New CarPlay Becomes Last Hope to Crack the Auto Industry.
  
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zero Hedge:

• Musk Defends Former President After Leftist Corporate Media Unleashes Trump "Bloodbath Hoax".
• What Will Happen When They Give The Green Light To Millions Of Radicals To Cause Widespread Chaos All Over America?
• Housing Affordability Crisis Solved: Sedona To Let Homeless Workers Sleep In Cars.
• Goldman Trader: We Continue To See Institutional Clients Sell Crowded Tech Stocks.
• Default: San Francisco Four Seasons Hotel Investors $3 Million Late On Loan As Foreclosure Looms.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• RFK Jr To Name Sergey Brin's Ex-Wife As Running Mate: Report.
• Gold Star Dad Who Interrupted State Of The Union Explains Why He Did It.
• The Stain Of Fani: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp Signs Law To Discipline 'Rogue' Prosecutors Amid DA Willis Controversy.
• This Week Seemed Like A Crazy Market, On Steroids.
• VDH: Elite Heaven Or Real Hell On Earth?
• "Extreme Events": US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In "Large Excess Over Trend".
• Mistakes Were Made.
• Taiwan Confirms Presence Of US Green Berets On Islands Very Close To China's Coast.
• Biden Embraces Schumer’s "Good Speech" Which Blasted Netanyahu.

Wall Street Journal:

• America’s Office Fire Sale Has Barely Begun.
• A Big Disney Fight Isn’t Nelson Peltz’s Only Drama.
• Fed’s Challenge: Has It Hit Brakes Hard Enough?
• Netanyahu Rejects Schumer’s Call for New Israel Elections as ‘Totally Inappropriate’.
• Meet the Tech Company That Had a Better Year Than Nvidia.
• Americans Will Do Anything to Avoid Gray Hair.
• Self-Driving Cars Enter the Next Frontier: Freeways.
• Lithium-Ion Batteries Are Everywhere. Fires Caused by Shoddy Ones Are on the Rise.

CNBC:

• White House urges Senate to ‘move swiftly’ on TikTok bill.
• Biden campaign has amassed $155 million in cash on hand for 2024 campaign and raised $53 million just in the last month.
• Top Wall Street analysts prefer these three stocks for the long haul.

Reuters:

• Oil mergers, clean fuels vie for attention at Houston energy conference.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Stock market to face reality check when Fed updates its interest-rate forecasts.

Fox News:

• Musk, others blast media for taking Trump's 'bloodbath' remark out of context.
• Trump lays out framework for abortion deal in exclusive interview with Howard Kurtz.
• Experts warn deadly threat to pets is sweeping across the United States. 
• TV personality warns about dangers of popular weight-loss drug Ozempic.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• It’s The Perfect Storm: Drivers Licenses for Illegals + Noncitizens Voting + Mail-in Ballots + Private Funding of Elections + Partisan Hack SOSs.
• NBA Legend John Stockton Sues Gov’t Officials Over COVID Persecution.
• Illegal Alien Caught at Border Admits He is a Hezbollah Terrorist, Said “I’m Going to Try to Make a Bomb”.
• CDC Finally Releases 148 Page Study on Myocarditis Following COVID Vaccine – And EVERY SINGLE WORD is Redacted!
• Biden White House Is Funding Palestinian Security Forces.
• MUST SEE! Stephen A. Smith Turns on Biden Regime: “The High Price of Democrats Anti-Trump Lawfare” (VIDEO). 
• Planet Fitness Bans Woman for Taking Photo of ‘Transgender’ Biological Man Shaving in Women’s Locker Room.
• Hero: 11-Year-Old Chicago Boy Murdered While Protecting Pregnant Mom from Man Allegedly Paroled 1 Day Earlier and on Electronic Monitoring.
• ‘Gloves Off’: Democrat Tennessee State Senator Calls for Riots After Republican Lawmakers Pass Pro-Police Bill (VIDEO).
• Over a Dozen Female Athletes File Lawsuit Against NCAA for Allowing Men to Compete in Women’s Sports.
• EUROPEAN FARMERS REVOLT: EU Commission Caves Again to Farmers, Proposes to Scrap More Crippling ‘Green’ Policies.
• ‘There’s Always The Hope’: Leftist Lunatic Keith Olbermann Fantasizes About Trump’s Assassination.
• Canada is Lost: Toronto Police Arrest Reporter David Menzies at Pro-Hamas Rally for Practicing Journalism (Video).
• UC Berkeley Parents Turn to Private Security To Protect Students From Raging Crime on Campus.
• Meet the MO v. Biden Plaintiffs – Jill Hines Spoke Out Against the Government COVID Regimen, So They Silenced Her – Tomorrow She Will Represent Millions of Americans in the US Supreme Court and Will Defend Our Right to Free Speech (Video).
• NOT ROCKET SCIENCE: Dominican Republic Seals Border With Haiti, Deports Thousands of Illegal Migrants.
• FDNY Official Who Wanted to ‘Hunt Down’ Staffers Who Booed Letitia James Gets Heckled at Parade: ‘You Suck!’ (VIDEO).

X:

• @elonmusk 

• Interesting. (video)
  
• Easy to tell who is an NPC today. (pic)
  

• @WideAwakeMedia

• EPIC: Rep. Scott Perry blows John Kerry's asinine climate propaganda completely out of the water, before calling him a grifter, right to his face. "You want to have the American taxpayers spend 1.6 quadrillion dollars to fix a problem that doesn't exist." (video)
• Dr. Mike Yeadon, a former vice president at Pfizer: "When we lose cash and you've only got central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)... If they say you can't leave your house more than 5 miles, you try to buy a bottle of water 6 miles from home, you won't be able to." (video)
  

• @StillGray
  

• Missouri is fighting the biggest free speech case in US history in its lawsuit against Biden. "At the core of the lawsuit, is the idea that the federal government can't outsource censorship to social media companies to trample on Americans' speech, which is exactly what they were doing. At the behest of some of the highest ranking government officials in the country the biggest social media companies in the world censored speech on topics like the lab leak theory, the Hunter Biden laptop story, the origins of COVID, the efficacy of masks, and much much more. (video)

• @kylenabecker

• Remember, America: The exact same people pushing this dishonest, divisive, and dangerous "bloodbath hoax" are the same ones pushing to install censorship on social media to prevent "election interference." Not a SINGLE account will be locked out, censored, deplatformed or demonetized for this blatant hoax. Even if their Big Lies lead to polarization, civil disorder, and political violence, they will never apologize. (pics)

• @songpinganq

• Chinese 15-minute cities are open air prisons! Residents are also required to take a face scan in order to leave their 15-minute zone!! So the State always knows where they are in real-time. (video)
  

• @KobeissiLetter

• BREAKING: For the first time in history, interest payments on non-mortgage debt in the US are equivalent to interest on mortgage debt, at $575 billion. Exactly 3 years ago, interest on non-mortgage debt was at $250 billion. This marks a 130% increase in household interest expense on non-mortgage items over just 3 years. (graph)
• Current state of the electric vehicle (EV) market: BRAND NEW Ford Mustangs Mach-E vehicles are selling for $12,500 BELOW MSRP. That's a 30% discount on the car before a single mile has even been put on it. (pic)
  

• @TheInsiderPaper

• NEW - Macron says ground operations in Ukraine possible ‘at some point’.

• @crushthemarket

• Oops. Facts matter.

• @WallStreetSilv

• "Support American farmers and DO NOT support Bill Gates". "What he's trying to do now in the food industry is the same thing that they did with genetically modified seeds" "He doesn't do anything when he comes into these areas to support community-based organizations" "We can't buy the land once Bill Gates moves into the area". (video)

• @CraigKellyPHON

• A NATIONAL EMERGENCY. Why is this not on the front page of every paper and the lead story on every news bulletin across the nation ? Something has gone catastrophically wrong in Australia. (map)

• @unlimited_ls

• This isn't the 'Third World,' this is AOC's 14th Congressional District in NYC. Trash-covered streets overrun by illegals running flea markets, while alleged prostitutes openly solicit men at 'Market of Sweethearts'. (video)

• @RandPaul

• I agree with @TulsiGabbard and @mkibbe, this isn’t just a ban of TikTok it’s a disturbing gift of unprecedented authority to Biden and the Surveillance State! (video)

• @PierreKory

• Before COVID, I didn't believe vaccines caused autism or that everyone would cover it up. Now I get that they do and my question's become how? This brilliant article explains how they cause autism and that those same mechanisms underly COVID vax injuries.

• @zerohedge

• Remember, main anchor of the "great reset" is depopulation. Well, that's a pretty simple and easy way to achieve it.

• @alx

• Biden campaign, liberal media spread hoax that Trump threatened ‘bloodbath’ if not elected—he was talking about auto industry.

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,007,636 Reports(+4,460 from prior report) Through February 23th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.5 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 69.5 +1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 -.04%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.1 +2.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.6 -.5%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.04%.
• S&P 500 futures -.07%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modstly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.