Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Yen Weakness, Healthcare/Financial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.4 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.61% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.8 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.4 +.4 point
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.1 +.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.6 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(49 of 500 reporting) +5.9% +.6 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.32 +.07:  Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.8 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 367.59 +.23: Growth Rate +29.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.6 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .72 -14.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .92 -10.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 7.75 basis point (2s/10s) unch.
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.22% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.7 +.4 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.57% +2.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 86.0%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 66.2%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +390 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +41 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +173 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BMI)/1.11
• (BX)/.92
• (CMC)/.91
• (ELV)/9.66
• (IRDM)/.20
• (KEY)/.28
• (MTB)/3.64
• (MAN)/1.29
• (MMC)/1.62
• (SNA)/4.59
• (TRV)/3.65
• (TFC)/.91
  

After the Close: 

• (OZK)/1.54
• (CCK)/1.81
• (ISRG)/1.64
• (MRTN)/.08
• (NFLX)/5.12
• (WDFC)/1.34
• (WAL)/1.89
• (ALK)/2.22
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in Aug.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in Aug.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook for Oct. is estimated to rise to 3.0 versus 1.7 in September.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 260K versus 258K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1868K versus 1861K the prior week.

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.8% gain in Aug.
• Capacity Utilization  for Sept. is estimated to fall to 77.8% versus 78.0% in Aug.
  
• Manufacturing Production for Sept. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.9% gain in Aug.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in July.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Oct. is estimated to rise to 42.0 versus 41.0 in Sept.

11:00 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,496,290 barrels versus a +5,810,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies is estimated to fall by -1,695,860 barrels versus a -6,304,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories is estimated to fall by -2,187,710 barrels versus a -3,124,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.26% versus a -.9% decline prior.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q update, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, (MDU) analyst day and the (CACI) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 +.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.0 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.43 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.2 +.62%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 -.03%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.56%.

• S&P 500 futures +.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Jitters, Diminishing China Stimulus Hopes, Technical Selling, Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.42 -.33%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.63% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.0 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.0 -3.0 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.9 +4.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.1 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(40 of 500 reporting) +5.3% -2.0 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.25 -.10:  Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.8 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 367.36 +.28: Growth Rate +29.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.7 -.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .86 +8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.02 -6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 7.75 basis point (2s/10s) -6.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.22% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.3 -.4 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.55% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 82.5%(+5.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 61.7%(+4.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -770 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -133 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +122 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABT)
• (MS)/1.59
• (CFG)/.79 
• (FHN)/.37
• (SYF)/1.79
• (PLD)/1.37
  
• (USB)/.99
  

After the Close: 

• (AA)/.28
• (CNS)/.74
• (CCI)/1.79
• (CSX)/.48
• (DFS)/3.46
• (EFX)/1.84
• (KMI)/.27
• (PPG)/2.15
• (SLG)/1.25
• (STLD)/1.97
• (SNV)/1.08
• (LVS)/.54
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• NY Fed Services Business Activity for Oct.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.3% decline in Aug.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in Aug. 
• The Export Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.7% decline in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly MBA mortgage applications report, API weekly crude oil stock report, (ULTA) investor day, (OKTA) investor meeting and the (MDT) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +9.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.9 +.3
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 62.4% of Issues Advancing, 36.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.28 +25.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$311.9M
  
• 272 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 61.3% (+1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 70.0 +2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 59.6 -2.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 230.5 -1.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,698.6 -1.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 74.0 (GREED) -3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.3 -.4%
  
• Vix 20.1 +2.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .86 +4.9%