Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Jitters, Diminishing China Stimulus Optimism, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Commodity Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.99 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.6 euros/megawatt-hour +.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.1 +.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.7 +1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(13 of 500 reporting) +8.4% +5.8 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.58 +.04:  Growth Rate +12.7% unch., P/E 20.3 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.56% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 412.31 +.14: Growth Rate +19.2% unch., P/E 28.9 -.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .28 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.43 -3.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 30.25 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -1.76% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.8% +1.2 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.46% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 67.3% (+4.8 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 46.7%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -242 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +242 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/financial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• (KBH)/1.58

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to -.14 versus -.03 in Jan.

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for March is estimated to fall to 51.5 versus 52.7 in Feb.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for March is estimated at 51.0 versus 51.0 in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, Scotiabank Utilities/Renewables Conference, (IP) Investor Day and the HSBC Investment Summit could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• BREAKING — Explosive new documents expose a massive government-backed censorship operation orchestrated by USAID, the Global Engagement Center, the UK government, and media firms to manipulate public discourse and silence Americans. Wow, this is crazy!
• NVIDIA announces they will invest hundreds of billions of dollars over the next four years in U.S. manufacturing. AMERICA FIRST. 
• Here’s where cars sold in America are made. Yup. (chart)
• LAWFARE: An Obama-appointed judge told Trump's lawyers they should assume that if a hearing is scheduled to challenge the president's actions, he will rule against them. Imagine trying to govern with 700 district court judges that expect you to be a mindreader. He’s a radical activist cosplaying as a judge.
• JUST ANNOUNCED: Approval ratings for the Democrat Party falls even further, from 29% to 27%. Hate and violence is not working.
• I've seen Democrats on TV for the past week scream Elon Musk, Musk, Musk, Musk, Musk.. what's funny to me is you're mad at the guy who found the fraud, but not mad at people that wasted your money.. ~ Wesley Hunt. And they wonder why they're polling numbers are in the 20's. (video)
• 2017. Mark Cuban: Reduce the size of government by at least a third. Make it more efficient. Just a reminder that like so many other Democrats, Cuban was all about cutting government waste until Elon and DOGE started actually doing it. Good idea. (video)
• For sexual violence, the data is off the charts. Wow, trans violence is EXTREMELY FAR above normal levels!! (chart)
  

• @bennyjohnson

• Mike Benz DIVES DEEP into how the Pentagon Created Lyme Disease 60 Years Ago in the SAME Lab as COVID: “The military was funding the tick viruses in the same lab as COVID… It’s the same playbook.” (video)

• @MarioNawful

• BOSTON DYNAMICS UNVEILS NEXT-GEN ATLAS WITH REINFORCEMENT LEARNING. Boston Dynamics just dropped a new Atlas demo—and it’s insane. The robot now walks, runs, and crawls using policies trained through reinforcement learning, with human motion capture as the reference. This isn’t just programming—it’s Atlas learning from real human movements. The work comes from a partnership between Boston Dynamics and the Robotics and AI Institute. If you thought Atlas was impressive before, this takes humanoid robotics to a whole new level. (video)
• JFK FILES CONFIRM TRUMP'S ‘DEEP STATE’ WARNINGS. Newly released JFK assassination files are shaking up history, with investigative journalist Glenn Greenwald arguing that the "deep state" is real—not just a conspiracy theory pushed by Trump and others. Greenwald:

• @WallStreetApes

• People need to go to prison. Joe Rogan brought up with Mike Benz the “map of 55,000 NGOs, that was essentially just democratic propaganda machine that was exposed. That was all just money being funneled in a circular manner”. A breakthrough artificial intelligence tracking system called Fractal technology maps previously hidden connections between 55,000 liberal NGOs, revealing how tax dollars allegedly flow through major institutions straight back to Democrats. (video)

• @bennyjohnson

• General Mike Flynn drops BOMBSHELL! The JFK file release CONFIRMS the CIA was behind JFK's assassination: "The Central Intelligence Agency committed this act of criminal conspiracy to undermine and assassinate a president of the United States. We need accountability." (video)

• @MilaLovesJoe

• I think that the “John Roberts” listed on the Epstein flight logs is Chief Justice John Roberts. It would explain why this conservative republican usually votes with the Democrat members of SCOTUS. Who believes the same? (pic)

• @seanmdav

• John Roberts didn’t just go out of his way yesterday to trash Trump on a purely political matter—impeachment of corrupt judges—over which Roberts has no authority. He did it by selectively leaking his statement to left-wing corporate media outlets, lying about its nature (claiming it was only in response to press inquiries rather than a general statement), and then refusing to provide the full statement to conservative media outlets when requested, including
  @FDRLST.

• @PeterSweden7

• BREAKING: India has conducted raids at the offices of George Soros Open Societies Foundation in Bengaluru. WOW.

• @NationFirstAust

• THE JFK FILES: AUSTRALIA, THE CIA & A 60-YEAR COVER-UP. The official story is DEAD. Declassified docs prove JFK wasn’t killed by a lone gunman—it was a coup, covered up by intelligence agencies worldwide. And guess what? Australia’s
  @ASIOGovAu was in on it. THREAD.

• @DavidSacks

• Extraordinary piece in THE HILL. The truth is finally coming out about the Ukraine war. The author explains why Trump is right about Ukraine; the war was completely unnecessary; Biden and Zelensky played significant roles in provoking and escalating it; and Western media has continuously lied about it. The author writes:

• @CartlandDavid

• So basically taxpayers paid for the creation of the Covid-19 virus through USAID and then paid the mainstream media to brainwash them about masks, vaccines, and lockdowns? It's unbelievable what these sick people did to us. (video)

• @Barchart

• Copper Withdrawals from LME soar to highest level in almost 8 years. (graph)

• @WarClandestine

• The JFK files show that the CIA were engaged in: -Regime change. -Biological warfare. -Political/Psychological warfare. -Global media control. -Mass propaganda. Sound familiar? There are so many parallels between what happened then and what is happening now. The CIA never changed.

• @TheShortBear

• From full long to full short. This is one of the biggest derisking I have ever witnessed. 70 percentage points of positioning within 3 months, simply unseen before. (graph)

• @YahooFinance

• BofA warns of Chinese stock correction ‘soon’ in 2015 repeat. (graph)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.5 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 49.5 +4.0 basis points(new series).
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.8 +.7%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.06%

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by tech and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Diminishing China Optimism, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.3%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.9 euros/megawatt-hour -1.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.3 +1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.1 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.7 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +2.6% -1.7 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.54 +.02:  Growth Rate +12.7% unch., P/E 20.5 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.55% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 412.17 +.12: Growth Rate +19.2% unch., P/E 29.3 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.46 +3.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 27.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -1.76% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.6% +1.9 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.46% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 62.6% (+7.5 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 48.7%(+.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -220 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -78 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer tech/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Services -3.3% 2) Airlines -1.1% 3) Cyber Security -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BIDU, PSO, WB, GIB, GLOB, GDS, ERJ, QBTS, SRPT, BAH, XPEV, ACN, ZTO, AK, YY and GRRR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FIVE 2) FNKO 3) HTZ 4) AEO 5) BAH

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AKBA 2) QUBT 3) YY 4) FLNC 5) CATO

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) GRID 3) RSPD 4) IBB 5) GDX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +1.6% 2) Education +1.4% 3) Banks +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PRA, RGC, SPRY, TITN, CAPR, IMCR, CVNA, WS, BE, GAMB, CAVA, CLS, JBL, DRI, FIVE, RKT, APP, PKX, TREE, BASE, OKLO, VSCO, DCTH, DEC, SGI, PPTA, META, Z, IMVT, PLTR, ALL, SOLV, GAP, RH and NRIX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PRMW 2) AKBA 3) ALGM 4) XNET 5) FIVE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OPTN 2) PRA 3) RSCF 4) AEVA 5) IVVD

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) XLF 3) XAR 4) IXN 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume