Thursday, May 08, 2025

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @ElonMusk
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @MarioNawful
  • @TheTranscript
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @TheInsidePaper
  • @FXHedgers
  • @PIQSuite
  • @DC_Draino
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @StanfordReview
  • INVESTIGATION: Uncovering Chinese Academic Espionage at Stanford. After interviewing multiple anonymous Stanford faculty, students, and China experts, the Review can confirm that the CCP is orchestrating a widespread intelligence-gathering campaign at Stanford. 1/8
  • @EYakoby 
  • @NicoleShanahan
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.25 -3.5 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 56.5 -2.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.34%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.71 +.07%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.2%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 62.9 +.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.37% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.4 +.5%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.04%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.17%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on US Global Trade Deal Hopes, Falling Recession Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Transport/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.3 -5.4%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.37 +.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.0 +5.0% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.71 -.69%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.9 +.77%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 -2.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.1 -5.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 +10.0
  • Total Put/Call .84 +6.3%
  • NYSE Arms .80 -39.4%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$253.9M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.7 -4.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 458.9 -3.7%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 284.0 +1.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.3 -3.4%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 160.3 -1.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.2 -2.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 191.1 -1.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 107.2 +1.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.75 +.03%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.5 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 3.25 basis point +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.25 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 153.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 643.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 73.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.96 -.08% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.37% +10.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.3 euros/megawatt-hour +2.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.1 +.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.7 +3.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.3 +2.5 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(439 of 500 reporting) +12.4% +.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.81 -.11:  Growth Rate +11.8% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.32% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 423.46 -.59: Growth Rate +22.5% -.1 percentage point, P/E 30.3 +.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.07 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.0 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 9.5 -.5
  • US Yield Curve 47.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% +.1 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.4% +.1 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.12 +4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 49.7% (-7.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 43.9%(+7.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +750 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +203 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +1.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Pharma -1.5% 2) Gold & Silver -1.1% 3) Shipping -.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TAP, IBN, FUN, LTH, NCDL, TNK, GMAB, ARM, ALNY, PLNT, NVMI, NTCL, TPB, MTCH, WMG, LQDT, CCOI, FTNT, YOU, OEC, VITL, ADMA, ACIW, CNR, ARGX, MUSA, MMYT, EOLS, LNW, QNST, AMRK, G, AXGN and ERII
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) UUUU 2) ADMA 3) VRNA 4) AHCO 5) QBTS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CODI 2) ASPN 3) CLF 4) DNUT 5) WMG
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) IGV 3) XOP 4) ITB 5) COPX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +2.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +5.4% 2) Alt Energy +3.9% 3) I-Banks +3.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SEZL, QDEL, GRPN, DAVE, BKSY, TPC, DCTH, PGY, CMP, LEU, QURE, ECPG, PBPB, DYN, SEDG, BTDR, FA, MGNI, VYX, CEP, DGII, PONY, AEVA, KAR, SSYS, PZZA, EPAM, ACAD, AXON, APP, MEG, TTEK, SN, HUT, UTI, QTWO, MIRM, RELY, RNA, MMS, AMPL, RVMD, PAHC, CGON, CVNA, CROX, WTS, MTRX, TEM, INOD, TGLS, RGTI, FTK, OPFI, MRUS, ENPH, PAYC, WWW, BV, RARE, PUBM, SYM, SMLR, BROS, AFRM, MELI, GLDD, PRVA, SIBN, NUVL, ACLX, UPST, OXY, CPA, MTSI, BE, EYE, IONQ, HRTG, CSGS, APPN, SLNO, KVUE, CEPO, ARIS, MWA, BA, PRAA, TPR, ATRC, CRMD, ODD, CRMD, ZK, YETI, CRTO, TEVA, PINS, TENB, SBS, RBA, PRCH, AMD and FVRR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) VOD 2) EYE 3) KNX 4) QBTS 5) GGLL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DAVE 2) APP 3) CVNA 4) MELI 5) GS
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XBI 2) MSTY 3) XLP 4) XLY 5) XLU
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AMR)/-1.06
  • (CLMT)/-.51
  • (ROAD)/-.07
  • (SATS)/-.74
  • (ENB)/.69
  • (PAA)/.44
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases
  • None of note

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Needham Tech/Media/Consumer Conference, (LMT) annual meeting, (PGR) annual meeting, (CL) annual meeting, (TER) annual meeting, (CHEF) annual meeting, (VMC) annual meeting, (ABBV) annual meeting, (AES) annual meeting, (MAS) annual meeting and the (MAR) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +24.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.7 -.3
  • 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
  • 77.6% of Issues Advancing, 20.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .95 -28.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$338.6M
  • 59 New 52-Week Highs, 30 New Lows
  • 34.7% (+5.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.8 +2.2
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.3 +4.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 231.7 +1.6%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,274.8 +.09%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 62.0 (GREED) +6.0
  • 1-Day Vix 16.5 -16.2%
  • Vix 22.0 -6.8%
  • Total Put/Call .74 -6.3%