Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.9 +1.6
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 55.4% of Issues Advancing, 42.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .79 -48.7%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$128.2M
  
• 179 New 52-Week Highs, 35 New Lows
• 637.7% (+.32%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.7 +1.1

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 24.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 23.0% +2.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 16.0% +3.0 percentage points
• US strikes Iran by June 30th 35.0% +3.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 101.5 +.8%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 421.0 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 272.4 +.6%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 160.76 -.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 52.0 (NEUTRAL) +4.0
• 1-Day Vix 6.5 -22.3%
  
• Vix 14.8 -.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .86 +2.4%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• A series of apparent blasts was heard near Venezuela’s presidential palace in downtown Caracas on Monday evening, rattling residents days after US airstrikes on the capital led to the capture of President Nicolas Maduro.
• US aviation authorities proposed rules that could require airlines to spend billions replacing or updating critical flight safety equipment to accommodate the sale of new wireless spectrum mandated in President Trump’s tax and spending package.
• President Trump asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio to lead the process to implement economic and political reforms in Venezuela, White House senior adviser Stephen Miller said.
• More than half of British companies’ finance chiefs expect artificial intelligence to deliver a growth boost, in a sign of rising optimism over the technology’s potential to transform the economy. 
• Nvidia said it has seen strong demand from customers in China for the H200 chip that the Trump administration has said it will consider letting the chipmaker ship to that country.   
• BlueScope Steel shares surged at the start of trading in Sydney on Tuesday, after a $8.8 billion takeover bid by US steelmaker Steel Dynamics and Australian conglomerate SGH.
• Under Armour jumped as much as 7.2% in late trading on Monday after Fairfax Financial disclosed a sizable stake in the sportswear company. 
• Nvidia, aiming to extend the reach of its technology, announced a group of AI models and tools designed to speed the development of autonomous vehicles. 
• Vistra Corp. agreed to buy Cogentrix Energy, which consists of 10 natural gas-fired plants that boast a total capacity of 5.5 gigawatts.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• Network Of Left-Wing Nonprofits Raced To Counter Trump's Narrative Of Maduro Raid.
• A mystery trader made $400,000 betting on Maduro’s downfall, doubling down just hours before the overnight operation. 
• Confusion As Sporadic Gunfire Erupts Near Venezuela's Presidential Palace Soon After Rodriguez Sworn In.
• Thune's Quiet Deal With Trump: Power Without The Drama.
• Prediction Markets Move Into Real Estate With Polymarket–Parcl Deal.
• DEMOCRAT ELECTION COMMITTEES RECEIVE MORE THAN $1.5 BILLION IN DONATIONS FROM "UNEMPLOYED" DONORS. Actblue received almost $700m from unemployed donors who donate small amounts multiple times to avoid scrutiny. In October of 2024, 2.9m separate TRANSACTIONS were reported, the last month before the general election. The data suggests that committees are using high volumes of small donations to launder money and avoid reporting large donations. 4.9% of Americans are unemployed, but almost 30% of all FEC donations come from people who are unemployed. Where are they getting the money? Based on the data you can easily infer that a large amount of this money is coming from government funded programs being laundered back into committees. In fact its the obvious explanation.  
• Hilton Hotel Plunges Into PR Crisis Mode After "Coordinated Campaign" To Cancel ICE Agent Bookings.
• Maduro's Own VP, Now Sworn-In As President, Betrayed Him To The CIA: Reports.
• CDC Narrows Vaccine Recommendations In Response To Trump Order.
• CIA Concluded Regime Loyalists Were Best Placed to Lead Venezuela After Maduro - WSJ.
• The everything squeeze...  
• The global fight for democracy usually goes through the indefinite suspension of elections.
• Centrus Energy Soars After DOE Awards $2.7 Billion For Uranium Enrichment.
• Charting Venezuela's Collapse: From Riches To Ruin In Ten Years Of Socialism.
• The Mamdani Symptom: How The Radical Left Is Making Its Stand In The Heart Of American Capital
  .  
• Zelensky Names Canada's Chrystia Freeland, Notable Anti-Russia Hawk As Top Advisor
  .
• Trump Again Issues Veiled Regime Change Threat: "Make Iran Great Again"
  .
• Bonds, Stocks, Oil, Gold, & Crypto Jump; Dollar Dumped Amid Maduro Mayhem
  . 

• @CNBC

• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Asia-Pacific markets open mixed after record global stock rally amid Venezuela tensions.
• Stock futures are little changed after Dow rises to record on U.S.’ capture of Venezuela leader: Live updates.  
• Nvidia plans to test a robotaxi service in 2027 in self-driving push.

• @GenFlynn

• This demands wide dissemination! This also demands immediate issuance of subpoenas. (video)

• @TheSCIF

• DOMINION CEO gets caught lying under oath and has to correct himself thinking the Senator doesn't understand what an ethernet cable or LAN line is and admit that they do connect to the internet. Dominion's own sales rep explain what modems and chips the voting machines and tabulators use, including, modems with GSM cell phone chips, 3G and 4G capabilities, uses all providers, like AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Sprint, and every other special providers like in Puerto Rico and Mongolia for remote access. Multiple witnesses testify about Dominion connecting remotely to machines to "fix" things, ethernet cables coming out of all the machines, and multiple Dominion employees going around the country to voting centers saying they are part of the "Trusted Build Maintenance," wiping voting records that have to be preserved by law, and then attempted to convince the voting clerks that they erased the voting logs and not them. This is unbelievable and should tell you everything you need to know. (video)

• @nmlinguaphile

• Paul Ryan backing Trey Gowdy for AG tells you everything you need to know about why Gowdy should never be close to power. Period.

• @SawyerMerritt

• NEWS: Boston Dynamics has just released a new video of its upgraded next-generation humanoid robot called Atlas. Brain is powered by Nvidia chips.

• @SidneyPowell1

• It’s going to be a very interesting year. Buckle up!

• @mark_k

• Elon Musk just dropped a post with huge implications: > “We have entered the Singularity”. By that he means the technological singularity: the point where progress compounds so fast that “normal” timelines stop making sense. AI is already compressing years of work into days. Robotics is next. Energy and space scale the floor under it. When the cost of intelligence and production keeps falling, abundance stops being a slogan and starts being a roadmap. If this is the singularity, the move is simple: build, ship, iterate. Don’t slow it down. Don’t fear it. Shape it. Acceleration is the path to abundance.

• @RealAF_Patriot

• Watch 20,000 votes disappear from Trump and get added to Biden’s numbers in Pennsylvania on live TV. This wasn’t a glitch. This was an intentional algorithm programmed into the Dominion election theft machines. This happened over and over and over all across the nation. (video)

• @FFT1776

• Reminder: Trey Gowdy suggests that John Brennan shouldn’t face handcuffs, but instead be punished through “shaming.” If the rest of us don’t get “shame” as a substitute for accountability, why should elites? Trey Gowdy is not a suitable DOJ AG. (video)

• @ValerieAnne1970

• SHOCKING TRUTH: Your "fresh" supermarket fruits might be OVER A YEAR OLD! They're GASSING them with TOXIC "SmartFresh" – a petroleum-based chemical – just to extend shelf life & boost profits! Carcinogenic & genotoxic, yet approved to use on 12 fruits including tomatoes... Rethinking that "fresh" apple? Many fruits/veggies are treated with 1-MCP (1-methylcyclopropene) to delay ripening for up to a year. SmartFresh is approved for use on apples, pears, persimmons, plums, cherimoyas, kiwis, tomatoes, peaches, melons, mangoes, limes & avocados, with more uses planned.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.5 -.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 38.5 -1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%. 
• Gold 4,466.8 USD/t oz. +.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.82 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.12 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 100.9 +.24%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.17% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.47% unch. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.4 -03%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.08%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.10%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on US Economic/Earnings Optimism, Diminished Geopolitical Angst, Lower Long-Term Rates, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.4 -1.5%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.28 -1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.3 -1.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 124.8 +.8%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.6 +.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.3 -1.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.5 +1.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.5 -1.6 points 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.04 +.46:  Growth Rate +15.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 485.96 +.74: Growth Rate +18.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.4 +.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .80 +3.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 70.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.1 +3.1% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 29.0% -.1 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +2.7% -.3 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.16% -3.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 +7.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 49.3% (+.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 45.2%(unch.) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +410 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +18 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +123 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/industrial/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -1.9% 2) Utilities -1.7% 3) Pharma -1.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AR, SOBO, CHRD, TYRA, AXSM, LEGN, CNQ, CORT, ARGX, ORKA, GPOR, VKTX, EVMN, PVLA and ZBIO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NU 2) HTZ 3) QXO 4) GRAB 5) AZN

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CPNG 2) STUB 3) MCD 4) JYD 5) FTV

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLY 2) IGV 3) IDU 4) ARKK 5) XLC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +7.1% 2) Defense +4.5% 3) Airlines +4.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RGC, BKKT, GHRS, VICR, FIGR, AVAV, VSEC, IBKR, FTAI, MCO, URI, INOD, QXO, AFRM, AA, RCAT, HYMC, NVMI, UMAC, HUT, SMR, ADUR, RDW, WFRD, PTRN, SLB, HAL, ONDS, NVMI, MELI, VLO, AMKR, TCMD, MRTN, SKYT, ASTS, NOV, CPA, FLY, ZETA, TIGR, OII, PSX, FTAI, LING, ASML, LRCX, AMAT, MEOH, TNET, MPC, VSEC, RELX, SYNA, BKR, CVX, EVR, AIR, SPOT, NU, BYRN, EMR, BYRN, ASML, CRNX, EMBJ, IVZ, CIB, KLIC, GS, PSLV, NVO, INVX, PBF, ERO, FCFS, WW, VELO, CEF, TS, HOPE, COP, SHG, LUNR, ILMN, BK, PSO and SA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XLU 2) HTZ 3) IVZ 4) NU 5) CVX 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) QXO 2) SLB 3) HAL 4) ALT 5) AMKR

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLK 3) XBI 4) XLF 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ANGO)/-.10

After the Close: 

• (AIR)/1.04
• (PENG)/.44 

Economic Release 

9:45 am EST

• Final S&P Global US Composite PMI readings for Dec. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, API crude oil stock report, Goldman Sachs Energy/Cleantech/Utilities Conference, (LNN) annual meeting, (STAA) shareholders meeting and the (AMBA) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST