Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote
Monday, November 14, 2005
Sunday, November 13, 2005
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- France banned all public gatherings in central Paris that might create disorder, to head off calls for increased violence in the capital after two weeks of rioting in French suburbs that has led to a total of 2,440 arrests. 502 cars were torched around the country last night.
- Wal-Mart said November sales at its US stores are rising within its forecast.
- The US dollar rose to a two-year high against the euro this week on speculation the gap between the strength of the US economy and Europe will widen further after widespread violence in France.
- Advantest Corp., the world’s biggest maker of memory-chip testing equipment, said operating profit will rise 67% in three years, helped by sales of machines that can be adapted to check different types of semiconductors.
- Georgia-Pacific agreed to be bought by closely held Koch Industries for $13.2 billion in cash.
- Gold’s surge to a 17-year high is prompting the biggest miners of the metal to seek new deposits from Mali to Russia.
- US private donations to aid hurricane relief may reach a record, topping private charity after Sept. 11.
Wall Street Journal:
- The US government filed a “statement of interest” in a US court, asking to keep its BlackBerry devices running in case a court orders Research In Motion Ltd. to shut them down.
- Toyota Motor Corp. is seeking a site in the US to build a new engine and transmission plant over the next few years to keep up with production demands in the area.
NY Times:
- Many Arabs view Israel as their enemy, which diverts their attention from social, political, religious and economic issues.
- The Chinese government is struggling to maintain people’s confidence in the legal system even after changes in 1996 that permitted a shift toward an adversarial trial process.
- The US Defense Department on Monday will urge suppliers to adopt radio-identification tags like those used by Wal-Mart Stores to track inventory.
Washington Post:
- The experience at the Federal Reserve of Ben Bernanke should dispel any doubts he would effectively work with financial markets.
- Viacom is changing almost all of the Web sites for its CBS and UPN networks to include a search tool that displays sponsored advertising links along with news.
- The Democratic National Committee under the chairmanship of Howard Dean trails Republicans in campaign fundraising by a two-to-one margin, prompting concern among party strategists the party will be at a disadvantage in the 2006 midterm elections.
Crain’s Chicago Business:
- Motorola Inc. is lobbying the US government to convert to digital television from the analog standard, freeing up broadcast airwaves for use by new devices and creating a “multibillion-dollar opportunity” for the company.
Detroit News:
- GM, which posted a sales decline of 26% last month after ending steep discounts, plans to offer more incentives beginning tomorrow to spur sales.
Star-Ledger:
- A $6 billion urban school construction program in New Jersey was crippled by waste, poor management and political favors.
Financial Times:
- Google will offer a free service analyzing the effectiveness of Web sites and online advertising, citing Google engineering director Paul Moret.
- Wal-Mart may provide facilities in its stores for customers to download feature films on to portable discs.
Economist.com:
- After losing $43 billion in five years, airlines are at the beginning of a massive boom.
Business:
- Acambis Plc, a UK vaccine-maker, will this week say its experimental flu vaccine, which could protect against avian influenza, is ready to start clinical trials.
Times of London:
- Thames River Capital, a London-based hedge fund with more than $7 billion of assets, may ask its US customers to leave rather than register with the SEC.
- Queen Elizabeth II’s security has been tightened after the British monarch was described by a senior al-Qaeda official in a video message as “one of the severest enemies of Islam.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on AVII, NOK, MSFT, ACN, SAPE, SAY, INFY, IBM, SAP, S and PNC.
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on AMGN.
Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.15%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
A/.37
AIG/.78
LOW/.77
TSN/.30
WMT/.57
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
- None of note
Bloomberg:
- France banned all public gatherings in central Paris that might create disorder, to head off calls for increased violence in the capital after two weeks of rioting in French suburbs that has led to a total of 2,440 arrests. 502 cars were torched around the country last night.
- Wal-Mart said November sales at its US stores are rising within its forecast.
- The US dollar rose to a two-year high against the euro this week on speculation the gap between the strength of the US economy and Europe will widen further after widespread violence in France.
- Advantest Corp., the world’s biggest maker of memory-chip testing equipment, said operating profit will rise 67% in three years, helped by sales of machines that can be adapted to check different types of semiconductors.
- Georgia-Pacific agreed to be bought by closely held Koch Industries for $13.2 billion in cash.
- Gold’s surge to a 17-year high is prompting the biggest miners of the metal to seek new deposits from Mali to Russia.
- US private donations to aid hurricane relief may reach a record, topping private charity after Sept. 11.
Wall Street Journal:
- The US government filed a “statement of interest” in a US court, asking to keep its BlackBerry devices running in case a court orders Research In Motion Ltd. to shut them down.
- Toyota Motor Corp. is seeking a site in the US to build a new engine and transmission plant over the next few years to keep up with production demands in the area.
NY Times:
- Many Arabs view Israel as their enemy, which diverts their attention from social, political, religious and economic issues.
- The Chinese government is struggling to maintain people’s confidence in the legal system even after changes in 1996 that permitted a shift toward an adversarial trial process.
- The US Defense Department on Monday will urge suppliers to adopt radio-identification tags like those used by Wal-Mart Stores to track inventory.
Washington Post:
- The experience at the Federal Reserve of Ben Bernanke should dispel any doubts he would effectively work with financial markets.
- Viacom is changing almost all of the Web sites for its CBS and UPN networks to include a search tool that displays sponsored advertising links along with news.
- The Democratic National Committee under the chairmanship of Howard Dean trails Republicans in campaign fundraising by a two-to-one margin, prompting concern among party strategists the party will be at a disadvantage in the 2006 midterm elections.
Crain’s Chicago Business:
- Motorola Inc. is lobbying the US government to convert to digital television from the analog standard, freeing up broadcast airwaves for use by new devices and creating a “multibillion-dollar opportunity” for the company.
Detroit News:
- GM, which posted a sales decline of 26% last month after ending steep discounts, plans to offer more incentives beginning tomorrow to spur sales.
Star-Ledger:
- A $6 billion urban school construction program in New Jersey was crippled by waste, poor management and political favors.
Financial Times:
- Google will offer a free service analyzing the effectiveness of Web sites and online advertising, citing Google engineering director Paul Moret.
- Wal-Mart may provide facilities in its stores for customers to download feature films on to portable discs.
Economist.com:
- After losing $43 billion in five years, airlines are at the beginning of a massive boom.
Business:
- Acambis Plc, a UK vaccine-maker, will this week say its experimental flu vaccine, which could protect against avian influenza, is ready to start clinical trials.
Times of London:
- Thames River Capital, a London-based hedge fund with more than $7 billion of assets, may ask its US customers to leave rather than register with the SEC.
- Queen Elizabeth II’s security has been tightened after the British monarch was described by a senior al-Qaeda official in a video message as “one of the severest enemies of Islam.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on AVII, NOK, MSFT, ACN, SAPE, SAY, INFY, IBM, SAP, S and PNC.
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on AMGN.
Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.15%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
A/.37
AIG/.78
LOW/.77
TSN/.30
WMT/.57
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
- None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology stocks in the region after an optimistic outlook by Advantest. I expect US stocks to open mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Weekly Outlook
There are some important economic reports and significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. - None of note
Tues. - Producer Price Index, Advance Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing
Wed. - Consumer Price Index, Business Inventories, Net Foreign Security Purchases, NAHB Housing Market Index
Thur. - Housing Starts, Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims, Industrial Production, Philadelphia Fed.
Fri. - None of note
A few of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. - Agilent Technologies(A), American International Group(AIG), Lowe’s(LOW), Tyson Foods(TSN), Wal-Mart Stores(WMT)
Tues. - Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF), American Eagle Outfitters(AEOS), Analog Devices(ADI), Dick’s Sporting Goods(DKS), GameStop(GME), Home Depot(HD), Staples(SPLS), TJX(TJX)
Wed. - Applied Materials(AMAT), Borders Group(BGP), DR Horton(DHI), Intuit(INTU), Medtronic(MDT), Petsmart(PETM), Tyco International(TYC)
Thur. - Autodesk(ADSK), Barnes & Noble(BKS), Gap Inc.(GPS), H&R Block(HRB), Hewlett-Packard(HPQ), Marvell Technology(MRVL), Nordstrom(JWN), Sears Holdings(SHLD), Sports Authority(TSA), Starbucks Corp.(SBUX), Walt Disney(DIS), Williams-Sonoma(WSM)
Fri. - AnnTaylor Stores(ANN), Freddie Mac(FRE)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. - Banc of America Energy Conference
Tue. - UBS Global Communications Conference, Merrill Lynch Banking & Financial Services Conference, Banc of America Energy Conference, Pacific Growth Top Tech Conference, the Fed’s Fisher speaking, the Fed’s Moskow speaking, CSFB Insurance Conference
Wed. - Merrill Lynch Banking & Financial Services Conference, CSFB Healthcare Conference, Lehman Brothers Small-cap Conference, UBS Global Communications Conference, the Fed’s Santomero speaking, CSFB Insurance Conference
Thur. - UBS Global Communications Conference, Merrill Lynch Banking & Financial Services Conference, the Fed’s Moskow speaking, the Fed’s Pianalto speaking, CSFB Healthcare Conference, Lehman Brothers Small-cap Conference, Semi Book-to-Bill, Deutsche Bank Hospitality & Gaming Conference, Lehman Brothers Small-cap Conference
Fri. - Lehman Brothers Small-cap Conference, CSFB Healthcare Conference
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. - None of note
Tues. - Producer Price Index, Advance Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing
Wed. - Consumer Price Index, Business Inventories, Net Foreign Security Purchases, NAHB Housing Market Index
Thur. - Housing Starts, Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims, Industrial Production, Philadelphia Fed.
Fri. - None of note
A few of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. - Agilent Technologies(A), American International Group(AIG), Lowe’s(LOW), Tyson Foods(TSN), Wal-Mart Stores(WMT)
Tues. - Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF), American Eagle Outfitters(AEOS), Analog Devices(ADI), Dick’s Sporting Goods(DKS), GameStop(GME), Home Depot(HD), Staples(SPLS), TJX(TJX)
Wed. - Applied Materials(AMAT), Borders Group(BGP), DR Horton(DHI), Intuit(INTU), Medtronic(MDT), Petsmart(PETM), Tyco International(TYC)
Thur. - Autodesk(ADSK), Barnes & Noble(BKS), Gap Inc.(GPS), H&R Block(HRB), Hewlett-Packard(HPQ), Marvell Technology(MRVL), Nordstrom(JWN), Sears Holdings(SHLD), Sports Authority(TSA), Starbucks Corp.(SBUX), Walt Disney(DIS), Williams-Sonoma(WSM)
Fri. - AnnTaylor Stores(ANN), Freddie Mac(FRE)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. - Banc of America Energy Conference
Tue. - UBS Global Communications Conference, Merrill Lynch Banking & Financial Services Conference, Banc of America Energy Conference, Pacific Growth Top Tech Conference, the Fed’s Fisher speaking, the Fed’s Moskow speaking, CSFB Insurance Conference
Wed. - Merrill Lynch Banking & Financial Services Conference, CSFB Healthcare Conference, Lehman Brothers Small-cap Conference, UBS Global Communications Conference, the Fed’s Santomero speaking, CSFB Insurance Conference
Thur. - UBS Global Communications Conference, Merrill Lynch Banking & Financial Services Conference, the Fed’s Moskow speaking, the Fed’s Pianalto speaking, CSFB Healthcare Conference, Lehman Brothers Small-cap Conference, Semi Book-to-Bill, Deutsche Bank Hospitality & Gaming Conference, Lehman Brothers Small-cap Conference
Fri. - Lehman Brothers Small-cap Conference, CSFB Healthcare Conference
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed, as lower energy prices, lower long-term rates, healthy retail data and decelerating inflation readings offset profit-taking. My trading indicators are giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Saturday, November 12, 2005
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 1,234.72 +1.20%
DJIA 10,686.04 +1.48%
NASDAQ 2,202.47 +1.52%
Russell 2000 666.66 +1.29%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,333.89 +1.15%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,068.03 +.20%
S&P Barra Growth 590.75 +1.10%
S&P Barra Value 639.69 +1.29%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 594.85 +1.61%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 744.36 +1.66%
Morgan Stanley Technology 515.65 +1.06%
Transports 4,072.25 +3.51%
Utilities 388.03 -1.24%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 7,580.00 +4.15%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 17.0 -26.34%
Put/Call .67 -22.09%
NYSE Arms .64 -20.0%
Volatility(VIX) 11.63 -10.54%
ISE Sentiment 168.00 -11.11%
AAII % Bulls 58.62 +36.48%
US Dollar 91.98 +.72%
CRB 315.59 -1.0%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.53 -4.99%
Unleaded Gasoline 148.50 -7.48%
Natural Gas 11.71 +3.19%
Heating Oil 172.35 -3.90%
Gold 470.00 +2.04%
Base Metals 139.80 +2.44%
Copper 190.50 +3.20%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.56% -2.15%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.36% +.79%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +7.96%
REITs +4.01%
Banks +3.79%
Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -1.65%
Oil Service -4.21%
Energy -4.30%
One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers
*5-Day % Change
S&P 500 1,234.72 +1.20%
DJIA 10,686.04 +1.48%
NASDAQ 2,202.47 +1.52%
Russell 2000 666.66 +1.29%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,333.89 +1.15%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,068.03 +.20%
S&P Barra Growth 590.75 +1.10%
S&P Barra Value 639.69 +1.29%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 594.85 +1.61%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 744.36 +1.66%
Morgan Stanley Technology 515.65 +1.06%
Transports 4,072.25 +3.51%
Utilities 388.03 -1.24%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 7,580.00 +4.15%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 17.0 -26.34%
Put/Call .67 -22.09%
NYSE Arms .64 -20.0%
Volatility(VIX) 11.63 -10.54%
ISE Sentiment 168.00 -11.11%
AAII % Bulls 58.62 +36.48%
US Dollar 91.98 +.72%
CRB 315.59 -1.0%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.53 -4.99%
Unleaded Gasoline 148.50 -7.48%
Natural Gas 11.71 +3.19%
Heating Oil 172.35 -3.90%
Gold 470.00 +2.04%
Base Metals 139.80 +2.44%
Copper 190.50 +3.20%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.56% -2.15%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.36% +.79%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +7.96%
REITs +4.01%
Banks +3.79%
Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -1.65%
Oil Service -4.21%
Energy -4.30%
One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers
*5-Day % Change
Friday, November 11, 2005
Stocks Modestly Higher Mid-day, Consolidating Recent Gains
Indices
S&P 500 1,233.09 +.17%
DJIA 10,675.00 +.33%
NASDAQ 2,202.57 +.28%
Russell 2000 665.86 +.14%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,316.74 +.17%
S&P Barra Growth 590.41 +.18%
S&P Barra Value 638.26 +.14%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 594.45 +.20%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 743.10 +.53%
Morgan Stanley Technology 515.61 +.16%
Transports 4,059.86 +.39%
Utilities 386.42 -1.21%
Put/Call .73 -2.67%
NYSE Arms .63 -20.88%
Volatility(VIX) 11.84 -.50%
ISE Sentiment 230.00 +47.44%
US Dollar 91.94 -.15%
CRB 315.53 +.32%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.70 -.17%
Unleaded Gasoline 149.00 -1.11%
Natural Gas 11.65 +2.37%
Heating Oil 173.75 -.34%
Gold 469.40 +.36%
Base Metals 139.80 +1.44%
Copper 190.55 +1.82%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.56% +.76%
Leading Sectors
Steel +2.65%
Coal +2.10%
Airlines +2.03%
Lagging Sectors
Defense -.74%
Tobacco -.92%
Utilities -1.15%
S&P 500 1,233.09 +.17%
DJIA 10,675.00 +.33%
NASDAQ 2,202.57 +.28%
Russell 2000 665.86 +.14%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,316.74 +.17%
S&P Barra Growth 590.41 +.18%
S&P Barra Value 638.26 +.14%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 594.45 +.20%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 743.10 +.53%
Morgan Stanley Technology 515.61 +.16%
Transports 4,059.86 +.39%
Utilities 386.42 -1.21%
Put/Call .73 -2.67%
NYSE Arms .63 -20.88%
Volatility(VIX) 11.84 -.50%
ISE Sentiment 230.00 +47.44%
US Dollar 91.94 -.15%
CRB 315.53 +.32%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.70 -.17%
Unleaded Gasoline 149.00 -1.11%
Natural Gas 11.65 +2.37%
Heating Oil 173.75 -.34%
Gold 469.40 +.36%
Base Metals 139.80 +1.44%
Copper 190.55 +1.82%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.56% +.76%
Leading Sectors
Steel +2.65%
Coal +2.10%
Airlines +2.03%
Lagging Sectors
Defense -.74%
Tobacco -.92%
Utilities -1.15%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Internet longs, Semi longs, Airline longs and Medical Information System longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is neutral, most sectors are rising and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are lower. Overall, market action is neutral. It is my experience that tight, sustained trading ranges result in extreme moves in either direction. We are in the midst of the longest string of 3%+ GDP growth quarters since 1986, yet consumer confidence was recently at the lowest level since the depths of the recession in the early 1990s. Given the U.S. economy's bulletproof disposition, there has been a major disconnect between perception and reality, thanks to fact the that there has never before in U.S. history been so many that perceive they will benefit(both politically and financially) from a U.S. economic collapse. I contend that all the irrational negativity that has built up since the bursting of the bubble five years ago will help propel the major averages higher out of the recent trading range over the intermediate-term.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)