BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:33 PM

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Oracle said the US Justice Department approved its proposed $5.85 billion acquisition of Siebel Systems, which will make the company the world’s largest maker of customer-service software.
- Liu Qibing, the deputy head of imports and exports at a Chinese government agency, was placed on leave in October, people who know him said, amid speculation he made losing bets on copper prices.

Financial Times:
- French Employment Minister Gerard Larcher said multiple marriages may be one factor behind more than two weeks of riots in French cities.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on AMT.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
AMAT/.14
CHRS/.08
DHI/1.63
INTU/-.30
HP/.71
NTAP/.18
MDT/.54
PETM/.19
CRM/.04
TYC/.46

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Consumer Price Index for October is estimated to rise 0.0% versus a 1.2% increase in September.
- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for October is estimated to rise .2% versus a .1% gain in September.
- Business Inventories for September are estimated to rise .3% versus a .4% gain in August.

9:00 am EST
- Net Foreign Security Purchases for September are estimated to fall to $70.0B versus $91.3B in August.

1:00 pm EST
- The NAHB Housing Market Index for November is estimated to fall to 66 versus a reading of 67 in October.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by exporters in the region after oil prices fell again. I expect US equities to open mixed and to trade modestly lower later in the day on further profit-taking. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower on Profit-taking

Posted by Gary .....at 4:46 PM

Indices
S&P 500 1,229.01 -.39%
DJIA 10,686.44 -.10%
NASDAQ 2,186.74 -.65%
Russell 2000 656.23 -1.16%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,267.12 -.46%
S&P Barra Growth 589.26 -.13%
S&P Barra Value 635.46 -.63%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 590.94 -.16%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 747.59 -.49%
Morgan Stanley Technology 513.21 -.48%
Transports 4,006.16 -1.31%
Utilities 388.18 +.44%
Put/Call .82 -9.89%
NYSE Arms .86 +11.24%
Volatility(VIX) 12.23 +.41%
ISE Sentiment 178.00 -3.26%
US Dollar 92.00 -.14%
CRB 312.73 -.75%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 56.98 -1.23%
Unleaded Gasoline 146.55 -2.05%
Natural Gas 11.51 -.79%
Heating Oil 168.50 -2.62%
Gold 469.00 -.02%
Base Metals 139.10 -.66%
Copper 193.00 +.86%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.55% -1.03%

Leading Sectors
Hospitals +1.25%
HMOs +.75%
Utilities +.44%

Lagging Sectors
Airlines -2.52%
Retail -2.61%
Oil Tankers -3.40%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on AIG.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US Senate Finance Committee dropped provisions that would have extended the 2004 tax cuts on capital gains and dividends from its tax-cut package, in an effort to get the legislation before the full chamber where Republicans plan to attach the tax breaks.
- Cisco Systems plans to sell a wireless fidelity, or Wi-Fi, product to take advantage of rising demand from cities for high-speed wireless networks.

AP:
- Jordan’s national security adviser and 10 other top officials resigned today following last week’s bombings in the capital Amman.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Internet longs, Retail longs, Software longs and Medical Information Systems longs. I took some profits in longs and added to my IWM and QQQQ shorts in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished substantially lower, most sectors fell and volume was average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Overall, today's market action was negative. The CRB Index fell again today to 312.73. This is down about 7% since Sept. 1. The index is approaching its 200-day moving-average at around 311. It has not touched this level since January. Moreover, the long-term uptrend that began in the fourth quarter of 2001 would be broken at around 300. I expect both these key technical levels to give way before year-end, which bodes very well for decelerating inflation readings and lower long-term rates going forward.

Stocks Lower Mid-day on Profit-taking after Recent Gains

Posted by Gary .....at 2:54 PM

Indices
S&P 500 1,229.40 -.35%
DJIA 10,684.52 -.12%
NASDAQ 2,188.59 -.56%
Russell 2000 657.55 -.96%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,280.85 -.34%
S&P Barra Growth 589.61 -.07%
S&P Barra Value 636.18 -.51%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 591.04 -.14%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 747.84 -.47%
Morgan Stanley Technology 513.83 -.35%
Transports 4,008.78 -1.24%
Utilities 388.57 +.55%
Put/Call .72 -20.88%
NYSE Arms .83 +6.53%
Volatility(VIX) 12.35 +1.40%
ISE Sentiment 178.00 -3.26%
US Dollar 92.21 +.09%
CRB 312.69 -.78%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.10 -.94%
Unleaded Gasoline 146.10 -2.35%
Natural Gas 11.55 -.49%
Heating Oil 169.00 -2.28%
Gold 469.00 -.02%
Base Metals 139.10 -.66%
Copper 193.00 +.86%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.55% -1.16%

Leading Sectors
Hospitals +1.32%
HMOs +.85%
Utilities +.42%

Lagging Sectors
Retail -2.32%
Oil Tankers -2.37%
Disk Drives -2.67%

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Internet longs, Retail longs, Software longs and Medical Information System longs. I added IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, most sectors are falling and volume is average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Overall, today’s market action is negative considering the fall in long-term rates, the decline in energy prices and positive economic data. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.8% year-over-year this week vs. a 4.2% rise the prior week. This week's gain is up from a 1.5% increase in late April and the 28th week in a row the index has risen 3% or more. This is impressive considering recent depressed consumer sentiment readings and unseasonably warm weather. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower from current levels into the close on profit-taking.

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 1:23 PM

Bloomberg:
- Allergan , the maker of the Botox wrinkle treatment, offered to buy Inamed for $3.2 billion in cash and shares, beating a bid by Medicis Pharmacuticals.
- The US dollar is rising to a two-year high against the euro after the ZEW Center for European Economic Research said German investor confidence unexpectedly fell and a US retail sales report exceeded estimates.
- Johnson & Johnson and Guidant said today that they have entered into a revised merger agreement with a net value of $19 billion.
- Ben Bernanke, the White House adviser nominated to be Federal Reserve chairman, pledged to carry on Greenspan’s interest-rate policies and to move toward more openness if the Senate confirms him for the job.
- United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan has rescinded his dismissal of Joseph Stephanides, the only official fired for wrongdoing in the Iraq oil-for-food program, while continuing to say he violated UN rules.
- US Treasuries are rising after Ben Bernanke said long-run price stability is essential for the economy.

Wall Street Journal:
- Genzyme, Amgen and Genentech and other biotech drugmakers have built booming business in the market for so-called “orphan” drugs used to treat rare illnesses.
- The number of US home-purchase contracts signed last month declined 8% from a year earlier at 48 large real-estate brokers, citing a survey by the real-estate consulting company Real Trends.
- US tax burdens have increases as federal and local tax rates rise, citing recent surveys.
- US officials are trying to prevent unscrupulous dealers from selling cars damaged in Hurricanes Katrina or Rita.
- US congressional negotiators have approved additional funding for veterans medical care.

NY Times:
- Officials of Medicare said performance-based bonuses help increase the quality of care given to patients at hospitals.
- Microsoft plans to offer software that will give scientists and engineers a way to gain high-performance computing from their existing desktop computers.

CNBC:
- UTStarcom, the biggest supplier of wireless-telephone systems in China, was awarded a contract, potentially worth billions of dollars, to provide Internet-protocol television to the city of Shanghai.

Edaily:
- Samsung Electronics, Hynix Semiconductor and Toshiba Corp. will soon sign “large” contracts to supply Apple Computer with NAND flash memory chips.

Core Producer Prices Fall, Retail Sales Strong, Manufacturing Healthy

Posted by Gary .....at 11:32 AM

- The Producer Price Index for October rose .7% versus estimates of unchanged and a 1.9% increase in September.
- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for October fell .3% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .3% gain in September.
- Advance Retail Sales for October fell .1% versus estimates of a .7% fall and a .3% rise in September.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for October rose .9% versus estimates of a .3% gain and an upwardly revised 1.4% increase in September.
- Empire Manufacturing for November rose to 22.8 versus estimates of 15.5 and a reading of 12.1 in October.

BOTTOM LINE: Core producer prices declined by the most in more than two years in October, reflecting cheaper cars, computers, food and clothes, Bloomberg reported. Core prices are now rising at a 1.8% annual pace versus a 2.1% rate at this time last year. Companies have had little success passing higher raw materials costs on to consumers. Car prices fell 3% in October, the largest fall in 4 years. As well, clothing prices declined .4%, the greatest drop in almost 4 years. I continue to believe inflation fears for this cycle peaked in September during the hurricanes.

Sales at US retailers fell less than expected last month as pre-holiday shopping at chain stores helped blunt a drop-off at auto dealerships, suggesting that consumers are largely unfazed by higher energy prices, Bloomberg reported. Sales at clothing and accessory stores rose 3.1%, the largest increase in 3 years, even with unseasonably warm weather. Last month was the 17th warmest October in US history. Moreover, sales at gas stations dropped .8% versus a 5.1% gain the prior month as the average price of gasoline fell to $2.77 from $2.95. This holiday shopping season is shaping up to be much better-than-expected.

Manufacturing in NY state expanded more than economists expected and executives were more optimistic about the future, Bloomberg reported. The prices paid component of the index rose to 60.6 from 57.3 in October. The employment component of the index rose to 16.9, the best level this year, from 9.3 the prior month. Optimism for the next six months soared to 46.9 from 32.6 in October. I continue to believe manufacturing will boost US growth over the next few months as inventory rebuilding continues.