Monday, February 05, 2007

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Carl Icahn, the billionaire activist investor, offered to pay $2.31 billion for the 84% of auto-parts maker Lear Corp.(LEA) that he doesn’t own.
- CBS Corp.’s(CBS) telecast of the Indianapolis Colts’ Super Bowl victory over the Chicago Bears last night earned the game’s highest rating in seven years.
- State Street(STT) agreed to buy Investors Financial Services(IFIN) for $4.5 billion, intensifying consolidation in the trustee-funds industry.
- Almost half of children ages 10 to 17 said they saw pornography online in the year before they were surveyed, a study says.
- US economic growth may slow to 2.7% this year, helping inflation to decelerate further, the White House predicted in its 2008 budget proposal.
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) ended a legal dispute with the Beatles over rights to use the Apple name and logos, potentially clearing the way for the company to distribute the group’s music through its iTunes online store.
- US women aged 30 and older are having babies at the highest rate since 1964, while teenagers are having fewer than ever, a study showed.
- Jim Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999, said more hedge funds may collapse after the demise of Amaranth Advisors LLC and a report of losses by metals-trading hedge fund Red Kite Management Ltd.
- Crude oil is falling .40/bbl. on speculation that US fuel stockpiles are sufficient to meet demand.
- Shares of Verenex Energy, a Canadian explorer, jumped to a record after the discovery of an oil field in Libya, the holder of Africa’s largest reserves.
- The cost of hiring oil tankers will fall for the next two years as a rush of new vessels enters service, forcing owners to compete on price, McQuilling Brokerage Partners said.

Wall Street Journal:
- Simon Property Group and hedge fund Farallon Capital Management made a $1.56 billion offer for Mills Corp.(MLS), topping a $1.35 billion agreement with Brookfield Asset Management.
- CCMP Capital Advisors and GS Capital Partners agreed to buy Triad Hospitals(TRI) for $4.7 billion in cash.
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) has advised some iPod and iTunes users to delay upgrading their computers to Windows Vista because iTunes software might not work well with the new Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) operating system, citing Apple.

American Metal Market:
- Red Kite Management Ltd. holds most of the aluminum inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange. Red Kite may hold about 90% of total LME-monitored stockpiles with help from an unnamed trading company. The metals hedge fund’s aluminum trading position is probably “illiquid.”

Financial Times:
- The bidding contest for Equity Office Properties Trust(EOP) between Blackstone Group LP and Vornado Realty Trust(VNO) shows how much more private-equity firms might bid if challenged.

Financial Times Deutschland:
- SAP AG’s sales in the US will rise more than 15% this year, citing Bill McDermott, the company’s head of Americas.

Bild:
- BASF AG CECO Juergen Hambrecht has demanded a binding worldwide agreement to reduce polluting emissions. The consumption of heating oil could be cut to three liters per square meter from the current level of about 25 liters with the help of triple-glazed windows and insulated facades.

London-based Times:
- Buido Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister, said his country wants to develop joint projects with British companies to bring ethanol to the UK.

Kathimerini:
- Cyprus could have significant oil deposits in at least two years, citing studies for the Cypriot government. A huge deposit called Eratoshenes was found south of the island and another has been identified in the Kylikeia basin, stretching from the shores of northern Cyprus to the coast of Turkey.

La Republic:
- Intel Corp.(INTC) Chairman Craig Barrett expects the health-care market for microchips to expand.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Healthy, Prices Paid Falls Again

- ISM Non-Manufacturing for January rose to 59.0 versus estimates of 57.0 and a downwardly revised 56.7 in December.
BOTTOM LINE: Growth at US service industries accelerated last month as companies trimmed excess inventories, a sign that increased consumer spending is bolstering the economic expansion, Bloomberg reported. ISM non-manufacturing is a gauge of industries that make up almost 90% of the economy. The Prices Paid component declined to 55.2 versus 59.7 the prior month. The employment component of the index fell to 51.7 from 53.2 in December. The inventories component fell to 47, the lowest since June 2003, versus 53.5 in December. The average price of a gallon of gas has declined 29% from last year’s peak of $3.04 to $2.23 a gallon last month. I continue to believe consumer spending will remain healthy and likely accelerate over the intermediate-term as wage continue to meaningfully outpace inflation, unemployment stays low, gas prices fall further, stocks rise, sentiment improves, housing stabilizes at relatively high levels, more seasonal weather arrives and interest rates remain low.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Quick Summary
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
Today in IBD
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Blog of Interest

The Kirk Report by Charles E. Kirk

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The S&P 500 completed its best weekly advance since August, bolstered by speculation the economy is expanding without fueling inflation.
- The Indianapolis Colts beat the Chicago Bears 29-17 in the Super Bowl, making Tony Dungy the first black coach to win a National Football League Title.
- Overstock.com(OSTK) sued Morgan Stanley(MS), Goldman Sachs Group(GS) and other brokers, saying they caused the company’s shares to drop by manipulating the stock.
- US Treasuries advanced this week for the first time in four after government employment and inflation reports supported the Fed’s view that the economy is growing at a moderate pace.
- President Bush asked congressional Democrats today for their cooperation on energy, immigration, health care and other areas where they share common objectives.
- Companies in the same city as the Super Bowl’s victor outperform a benchmark stock index for a month after the NFL championship game is played, according to Goldman Sachs(GS).
- Denny Sanford, chairman and CEO of financial-holding company United National corp., today donated $400 million to a Sioux Falls, South Dakota-based health-care system.
- The productivity of US workers grew at a faster clip last quarter and labor costs stabilized, a sign that wages may not become a source of inflation, economists forecast a report this week will show.
- Raising interest rates didn’t work. So now Asia’s central bankers and governments are trying curbs on bank lending, construction fees, even environmental regulations in an effort to combat asset bubbles that have made Seoul the world’s second-priciest city and Mumbai apartments cost as much as Manhattan’s.
- Vornado Realty Trust(VNO), trying to allay concerns that is bid for Equity Office Properties(EOP) Trust is riskier than an offer from Blackstone Group LP, has offered Equity Office shareholders $56 a share in cash up front for as much as 55% of the shares outstanding.
- Copper futures in Shanghai fell the maximum daily limit of 4% after declines in global markets attributed to a report in the Wall Street Journal of losses at a metals-trading hedge fund.
- Workers at BHP Billiton(BHP) accepted a sweetened wage offer at a Chilean copper mine, averting a strike.
- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert approved development of a missile defense system to guard against short- and intermediate-range rocket attacks by Hezbollah and Palestinians. The “Iron Dome” system will provide Israeli citizens with “optimal protection” against attack.
- Shares of Industrial Bank Co., part-owned by a unit of HSBC Holdings Plc, surged 53% on it debut in Shanghai after the $2 billion offer attracted record bids from investors in China.

Wall Street Journal:
- This past week produced a string of good news for the US economy. Gross domestic product, the most closely watched barometer of growth, expanded by a healthy 3.5% annual rate in the fourth quarter.

Economist.com:
- India’s growth rate is close to China’s; but signs of overheating suggest that this pace cannot be sustained.

NY Times:
- New Orleans residents hardest hit by flooding during Hurricane Katrina can sue the US Army Corps of Engineers, citing a court decision.

Washington Post:
- The Federal Aviation Administration will begin introducing a proposal to finance a new US air traffic control system in the agency’s budget, to be submitted to Congress Feb. 5.

Time.com:
- Last year 2.4 million investors began trading stocks through the Shanghai exchange, a 250% increase in new accounts. But the alarm is being sounded by Beijing officials, who are worried there could be another Chinese market meltdown like the one in 2001 that soured the public on stocks for years.

LA Times:
- General Electric’s NBC Universal Inc. will this week name Jeff Zucker as CEO, replacing Bob Wright.

Financial Times:
- Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Spain’s second-biggest bank, is planning further expansion in the US.

Sunday Telegraph:
- Vodafone Group Plc, Telefonica SA, and AT&T’s Cingular unit are among telecommunications companies planning a mobile phone search engine to rival Google Inc.(GOOG).

Sunday Express:
- Regal Petroleum Plc may become a buyout target amid speculation that it is about to announce it found an oil field worth at least $1 billion.

Focus:
- Stavros Dimas, the European Union Environment Commissioner who wants to force automakers in the 27-member bloc to limit new cars’ emissions, will trade his DaimlerChrysler AG-made Mercedes S-class company car for a hybrid that is more environmentally friendly.

El Universal:
- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’ backers want him to oversee all information that circulates over the Internet, in print media and on mobile phones.

Nikkei:
- Komatsu Ltd. is planning to sell hybrid-powered construction equipment. The construction equipment maker has developed a fuel-efficient hydraulic shovel which requires a third less energy than regular shovels.

Asahi:
- North Korea will demand energy resources form the US and other members of six-party nuclear disarmament discussions as an incentive to shut its atomic reactor when they meet this week.

Financial News:
- China risks stagflation, a period of inflation with low economic growth, in the second half of this year as investment slows, citing a government researcher. China’s economic growth may slow to below 8% if new investment shrinks this year, which may bring overall fixed-asset investment growth to 15% later in the year. New investment dropped year-over-year in December after expanding by 3.7% in the first 11 months.

Kuwait News Agency:
- Qatar, the world’s largest supplier of liquefied natural gas, said a cartel between producers of the fuel is unlikely, citing the nation’s Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (MHK), (DISH), (CEN) and (ANAD).

Citigroup:
- A rank of cash as a % of total market cap reveals 6 of top 20 companies in the S&P 500 are semi or semi equipment companies. Excluding banks and other financial institutions, semiconductor/semi equipment companies represent 5 of top 10. Of these 5, (TER) and (KLAC) rank #1 and #2.
- We see the next wave of news flow in semiconductors as positively biased, improving the sentiment for our top ideas (INTC), (TXN), (SPSN) and (IDTI).

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.06%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.04%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (APC)/1.26
- (BEAV)/.26
- (CTSH)/.43
- (HEW)/.24
- (HUM)/.88
- (KLAC)/.71
- (LVS)/.31
- (MNT)/.25
- (OSTK)/-.84
- (PBI)/.77
- (PPS)/.04
- (QSII)/.30
- (TIN)/.73
- (TNB)/.72
- (WMS)/.30

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for January is estimated at 57.0 versus 56.7 in December.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and automaker shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Click here for The Week Ahead by Reuters
Click here for Stocks in Focus for Monday

There are some economic reports of note and several significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - ISM Non-Manufacturing

Tues. - Weekly retail sales

Wed. - MBA Mortgage Applications, Preliminary 4Q Non-farm Productivity, Preliminary 4Q Unit Labor Costs, Consumer Credit

Thur. - Initial Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories

Fri. - None of note

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Anadarko Petroleum(APC), Cuzins Properties(CUZ), Humana Inc.(HUM), Kla-Tencor(KLAC), Las Vegas Sands(LVS), Pitney Bowes(PBI), Post Properties(PPS), Temple-Inland(TIN)

Tues. - ADP(ADP), Avon Products(AVP), Bowater Inc.(BOW), Business Objects(BOB), CB Richard Ellis(CBG), Cheesecake Factory(CAKE), Cisco Systems(CSCO), Computer Sciences(CSC), Duke Energy(DUK), Emerson Electric(EMR), Gartner Inc.(IT), IAC/InterActiveCorp(IACI), Louisiana-Pacific(LPX), Nabors Industries(NBR), Sohu.com(SOHU), St. Joe(STJ), Tyco Intl.(TYC)

Wed. - Akamai Technology(AKAM), Alcon Inc.(ACL), Cigna Corp.(CI), Devon Energy(DVN), Electronic Data Systems(EDS), Intercontinental Exchange(ICE), Maxim Integrated(MXIM), Medimmune Inc.(MEDI), Moody’s Corp.(MCO), News Corp.(NWS/A), Polo Ralph Lauren(RL), Prudential Financial(PRU), Sara Lee Corp.(SLE), Sina Corp.(SINA), Walt Disney(DIS), Whirlpool Corp.(WHR)

Thur. - Applebees Intl.(APPB), BMC Software(BMC), Broadcom(BRCM), Diamond Offshore(DO), Digital River(DRIV), Energy Conversion Devices(ENER), Express Scripts(ESRX), Freescale Semi(FSL), Level 3 Communications(LVLT), Marriott Intl.(MAR), McAfee Inc.(MFE), Panera Bread(PNRA), PepsiCo Inc.(PEP), Qwest Communications(Q), Timberland(TBL), Tribune Co.(TRB), XTO Energy(XTO)

Fri. - Analog Devices(ADI), Hasbro(HAS), Human Genome Sciences(HGSI), J2 Global Communications(JCOM), Jacuzzi Brands(JJZ), Mastercard Inc.(MA), Weyerhaeuser(WY)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - Thomas Weisel Tech Conference, CSFB Energy Summit

Tue. - Lehman Brothers Industrial Conference, Thomas Weisel Tech Conference, Piper Jaffray Analog Summit, Merrill Global Pharma/Biotech/Medical Device Conference, Cowen Aerospace/Defense Conference, CSFB Energy Summit, Fed’s Bernanke speaking, Fed’s Moskow speaking

Wed. - CSFB Energy Summit, CSFB Financial Services Forum, CSFB Disruptive Tech Conference, Thomas Weisel Tech Conference, Merrill Global Pharma/Biotech/Medical Device Conference, Lehman Brothers Industrial Conference, Fed’s Plosser speaking

Thur. - Merrill Global Pharma/Biotech/Medical Device Conference, CSFB Energy Summit, CSFB Disruptive Tech Conference, CSFB Financial Services Forum, Lehman Industrial Conference, Retail Same-Store-Sales relelases

Fri. - CSFB Energy Summit, CSFB Financial Services Forum, CSFB Disruptive Tech Conference, Fed’s Poole speaking

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on mostly positive economic data, mostly positive earnings reports, buyout speculation, a stronger US dollar, lower energy prices, short-covering and stable long-term rates. My trading indicators are still giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.