Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Global Growth Worries, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Energy/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.9 -4.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.18 +.03%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.31 -1.54%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.35 -1.52%

• ISE Sentiment Index 72.0 -34.6%
  

• Total Put/Call .79 -2.47%

• NYSE Arms 1.04 +49.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.49 -1.36%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 527.0 +2.71%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.32 -4.02%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 247.25 +5.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.59 +.02%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 171.11 -1.13%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 161.02 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.5 unch.

• TED Spread 18.25 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.48 +.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% unch.

• Yield Curve 15.75 -1.75 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.42 USD/Metric Tonne +1.78%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -53.10 +2.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -59.10 +1.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.30 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.91 unch.
• 11.8% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 17.4% chance of cut at July 31st meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +53 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +195 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/tech/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Tobacco -.9% 2) Gold & Silver -.5% 3) Steel -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DLTH, LIVN, PDD and SMTC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FE 2) AET 3) SKX 4) CHTR 5) HES

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DLTH 2) SAM 3) ODP 4) NTIC 5) PLAN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +2.2% 2) Biotech +1.7% 3) Energy +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CCS, TGI, HMST, EB, BOOT, IGV, FIXX, I, FE, GLOB, SGEN, BBBY, CARB, LX, SNP, BZUN, BOOM, SGMS, PRA, ATHM, CRMT, TSLA, SSTI, AABA, APAM, BOOT, SNAP, RECN and IOVA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XRT 2) FOXA 3) CY 4) HYG 5) CSC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HMST 2) BBBY 3) DG 4) NOC 5) XPO

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -16.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 70.5% of Issues Advancing, 25.6% Declining
• 95 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 54.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.98%
• Vix 12.9 -4.8%
• Total Put/Call .92 +13.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.13 +65.2%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• China Hails `New Consensus' on Trade, Though Deal Not Ready Yet.

• May to Keep Alive the Option of Brexit Deal Referendum.

• Japan's Wages Unexpectedly Fall in February in Blow to Inflation.

• U.S. Stock Futures, Treasury Yields Rise on Trade. U.S. equity futures rose with Treasury yields after China President Xi Jinping said substantial progress has been made in trade talks with Washington. Asian stocks were mixed, with much of the region shut for a holiday. S&P 500 futures ticked higher as the news broke, giving a kicker to Japanese shares. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korean shares advanced and Australian stocks fell. China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are shut for a holiday. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index posted a modest gain as President Donald Trump said a deal to end the trade war isn’t yet ready but an agreement may be “monumental” in the end. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.2 percent as of 9:03 a.m. in Toky. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 0.7 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.1 percent. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.2 percent Thursday. Futures rose 0.2 percent.

• Trump's ‘Monumental’ Deal, India Cuts, Fed Rate Impacts: Eco Day.

• Oil Price Benchmarks Are Defying the Laws of Supply and Demand.

Wall St. Journal:

• President Attempts to Shake Up the Fed With Choice of Cain.

• The Mueller ‘Coverup’ Gambit.

• Fearing a No-Deal Brexit, British Companies Hoard Like It’s Wartime.

MarketWatch.com:

• Two top Fed officials push back against economic doom and gloom.

Fox News:

• Special counsel's team may have misrepresented emails during probe, GOP senators warn.

CNBC: 

• Jamie Dimon: US ‘absolutely’ right to enter trade war, despite short-term economic toll.

• Options traders think one airline stock may be about to surge.

• Friday's jobs report could eliminate market's recession fears.

Zero Hedge:

• US Futures, Yuan Surge As China's Xi Says "Substantive Progress" Made In Trade Talks.

• Coming Soon To Every Major City Near You: Manhattan's Brand New "Congestion Toll".

• Feds Investigating Whether Chinese 'Spy' At Mar-A-Lago Connected To Cindy Yang.

• Cal Berkeley Law School Dean: Trump's Free-Speech Executive Order Is "Unconstitutional".

• Trump: "Very Monumental" China Deal May Be Announced In Four Weeks.

• Biden Funneled $1.8 Billion To Ukraine While Son Bagged 'Sweetheart' Government Deal: Report.

• Boeing Bounces, Bitcoin Battered As Trade-Deal Dreams Trump Dismal Data.

Telegraph:

• Markets unnerved by fears of Italy growth downgrade.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.0 +.75 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 42.25 +.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.47 -.02%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.04%.

• S&P 500 futures +.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (GBX)/.22

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for March is estimated to rise to 175K versus 20K in February.

• The Unemployment Rate for March is estimated at 3.8% versus 3.8% in February. 

• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in February.

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for February is estimated to fall to $17.0B versus $17.05B in January.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking and the Eurozone Industrial Production report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to strengthen into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.