Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +3.8% 2) Steel +3.7% 3) Road & Rail +3.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LOCO, AXL, XENT, MRC, RUTH, TPB, QRVO, X, MMSI, BRKR, AMED, LHCG, MD, SKY, FTNT, ACLS, RAD, APA, FLR, AGIO, SSNC, IBP, NWL, AERI, NTLA, EHC, ITT, HAE, DNOW, BLDR, BIO, MTZ, AYX, GVA, WCC, SWKS, KOD, SAGE, SEM, UCTT, WU, ATI, BOOT, BAH, HRC, BLD, CPS, MDC, CHEF, VECO, INGR, DRNA, CATM, HTH, EDIT, AVTR, HBI, CROX, WMGI, SUM, KMT, TRN, SYNA, LPG and PETQ

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) QRVO 2) FIT 3) SGMS 4) GD 5) EWJ

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) QRVO 2) FIT 3) BGG 4) IMGN 5) TPB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +28.9% Above 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 71.0% of Issues Advancing, 27.1% Declining
• 143 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 55.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.9%
• Vix 12.5 -5.8%
• Total Put/Call .68 -39.8%
• TRIN/Arms .73 -47.5%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.25 +.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 41.0 +1.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  66.18 unch.
• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ABBV)/2.30
• (BABA)/10.68
• (AIG)/1.01
• (BAH)/.71
• (BGG)/-.72
• (CBOE)/1.15
• (CVX)/1.46
• (CL)/.70
• (D)/1.14
• (XOM)/.66
• (ITT)/.90
• (LYB)/2.76 
• (NWL)/.55
• (RUTH)/.10
• (STX)/1.00

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Oct. is estimated to fall to 85K versus 136K in Sept.
• The Unemployment Rate for Oct. is estimated to rise to 3.6% versus 3.5% in Sept.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in Sept.

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Manufacturing Index for Oct. is estimated to rise to 49.0 versus 47.8 in Sept.
• The ISM Prices Paid Index for Oct. is estimated to rise to 50.0 versus 49.7 in Sept.
• Construction Spending MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Aug.

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Oct. is estimated to fall to 17.0M versus 17.19M in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Vice Chair Clarida speaking, Fed's Quarles speaking, China Manufacturing PMI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Concerns, Impeachment Uncertainty, Global Growth Worries, Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.7 +10.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.98 -.79%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.20 +.56%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.01 +18.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 77.0 -16.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.12 +16.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.37 +26.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.21 +1.58%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 483.0 -.62%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.82 +.62%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -1.5 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.0 +.93%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 198.84 +1.85%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.22 +.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 3.25 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 38.25 +4.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.0 -1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.18 -.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.53% -7.0 basis points

• Yield Curve .16 -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 82.78 USD/Metric Tonne +2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.7 -3.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.10 +9.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -27.0 -6.2 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.60 -2.0 basis points
• 53.6% chance of Fed rate cut at Jan. 29th meeting, 63.5% chance of cut at March 18th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -209 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -31 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/industrial/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.7% 2) Social Media +.6% 3) Paper +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MUSA, OLED, CRUS, STAA, EGOV, KHC, MC, ABMD, UCTT, TDOC, INOV, TPX, BLD, FLWS, NTCT, SPXC, LKQ, LITE, CSGS, BWA, WHD, VIAV, SRCL, MIC, ATI, NTLA, NUVA, CFX, DT, BJ, LSI, MUR, EQT, DNKN, TFX, INSM, CDAY, CNMD, DX, DRNA, OII, GNRC, EXAS, YEXT, AGNC, IDXX, LSXMA, SFM and LNTH

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TDOC 2) OLED 3) ETSY 4) MET 5)EMB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CRUS 2) CRAI 3) KHC 4) DNKN 5) TPX

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +19.3% Above 100-Day Average
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 31.7% of Issues Advancing, 65.8% Declining
• 117 New 52-Week Highs, 56 New Lows
• 58.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.9%
• Vix 13.3 +7.6%
• Total Put/Call .89 -7.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.49 +37.9%