Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Global Trade Deal Uncertainty, Pre-Fed Jitters, Technical Selling, Pharma/Biotech Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.06 -.09% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% -3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.7 euros/megawatt-hour +5.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.8 +.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 3.4 +6.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.0 -1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(391 of 500 reporting) +11.7% -.7 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.02 +.11:  Growth Rate +11.9% unch., P/E 20.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.35% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 423.80 -.09: Growth Rate +22.6% unch., P/E 30.0 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.04 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.08 -9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.6 +.1
• US Yield Curve 52.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.2% +1.1 percentage points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.8% +.8 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.6 +6.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 68.1% (-4.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 55.5%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +55 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +38 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +56 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.9%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -5.8% 2) Pharma -3.4% 3) Homebuilding -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• KNF, HUBG, GEO, BCC, BCRX, PHG, XENE, TDG, CBT, IART, TREE, ENR, VTS, TGTX, FN, DASH, CTRA, BLFS, VERA, DYN, SLP, AESI, PCVX, CERT, CEP, MRNA, ETD, IPGP, VRTX, LSCC, MATX, JANX, PLTR, OFIX, CSTL, DOCN, KRYS, ACLX, OMCL, BRBR, BEAM, SNDX, FWRG, ICHR, SRPT, QURE and PRAA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WMB 2) JCI 3) VRTX 4) SRPT 5) JETS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SRPT 2) BEAM 3) PLTR 4) MRNA 5) FWRG

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLE 3) XOP 4) XLK 5) PAVE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.6% 2) Utilities +1.2% 3) Telecom +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PONY, FARO, CRMD, AMRC, UPWK, AORT, SEDG, XPEL, SIBN, LMB, ULS, HIMS, RRX, PINC, CEG, XMTR, ARMK, NGVT, MD, ERO, CE, BTU, FMS, PHH, AL, TDW, GLDD, NBIX, DRVN, LCII, DORM, CPS, AVNT, AVNS, LPX, VAL, AGI, LDOS, ACEL, UTZ, ACLS, AEM, CRBG, SEE, INGR, KGC, VST, MUR, OGS and LTC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CF 2) WRD 3) TDUP 4) CNK 5) SHLS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HIMS 2) LOBO 3) TDUP 4) UPWK 5) EVGO

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLC 2) EUFN 3) XLP 4) IGV 5) XLY

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BLMN)/.57
• (BWA)/.98
• (BG)/1.28
• (CRL)/2.07
• (ELAN)/.31
• (EMR)/1.41
• (FLEX)/.70
• (JCI)/1.00
• (JLL)/2.18
• (OC)/2.87
• (ROK)/2.10
• (SHOP)/.26
• (TRIP)/.03
• (UBER)/.51
• (DIS)/1.19
  

After the Close: 

• (DOX)/1.71
• (APP)/1.44
• (CAR)/-5.89
• (AXON)/1.27
• (BYND)/-.46
• (CVNA)/.72
• (CF)/1.48
• (CLF)/-.82
• (COHR)/.86
• (CXW)/.34
• (CSGS)/1.02
• (BROS)/.10
• (FLUT)/1.91
• (FTNT)/.53
• (FWRD)/-.55
• (GT)/-.03
• (HRB)/5.17
• (KGS)/.39
• (MELI)/8.27
• (OXY)/.78
• (PAAS)/.20
• (QTWO)/.47
• (RBA)/.84
• (RGLD)/1.43
• (SWKS)/1.20
• (ZG)/.37
• (TPB)/.70
  

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,632,330 barrels versus a -2,696,00 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,420,330 barrels versus a -4,003,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -388,500 barrels versus a +937,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.45% versus a +.5% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 4.25-4.5%.

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for March is estimated to rise to $9.387B versus -$.81B in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC press conference, Treasury Secretary Bessent's testimony to House, weekly MBA mortgage application report, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference, Needham Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, (GD) annual meeting, (IDXX) annual meeting, (PEP) annual meeting, (CSX) annual meeting, (MGM) annual meeting, (GILD) annual meeting and the Truist Industrials/Services Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.7 -2.5
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 37.8% of Issues Advancing, 59.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .70 -27.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$287.4M
  
• 25 New 52-Week Highs, 35 New Lows
• 32.6% (-3.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.5 -2.8

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.1 -.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 227.2 -.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,305.0 -.23%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 58.0 (GREED) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 17.9 +7.6%
  
• Vix 24.4 +3.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .84 -8.7%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• Starlink still worked in Spain and Portugal when the whole countries lost power! Worth having @Starlink as backup, even if you have a gigabit landline.
• This is great. No more funding “research” that kills millions of people! The real name for “gain of function” is death maximization. That’s what Fauci was actually researching. (video)

• @ZeroHedge

• Trump Says Mexican President "Afraid Of The Cartels" After Rejecting US Army To Hunt Them Down.
• Popular Hedge Fund Trade Adjusts With Wild Market. (graph) 
• Israel Unleashes Massive Strikes On Yemen With 30 Jets, After Ben Gurion Airport Attack.
• Bravo @zerohedge asking about the anthrax attacks. (video)
• ZeroHedge In The White House: Who Blew Up The Nord Stream Pipelines? Trump Responds.
• Tyson Foods Spots Potential Beef Crisis Low As Hard Work Begins For Ranchers.
  
• Bleed, Not Win: CIA Station Chief's Astonishing Ukraine Admission.
  
• *TRUMP: IN GOOD POSITION TO SETTLE WITH RUSSIA AS OIL PRICE DOWN.
• What Recession: Goldman Now Expects Q2 GDP To Surge To 2.4%. (graph)
• Gold Gains, Crude Crushed As Stocks' Big Win-Streak Ends Abruptly.
  

• @MarioNawful

• NIH TERMINATES CONTROVERSIAL BEAGLE EXPERIMENTATION. The lab doors finally swung shut on decades of distress. No more painful tests, no more lonely cages, no more puppy eyes filled with fear. National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Bhattacharya joked he's now receiving bouquets instead of angry letters, thanks to animal advocates like PETA. Elon’s DOGE is even sniffing out unnecessary cruelty. Trump's administration halted funding, and notorious breeder Envigo now faces massive fines. Taxpayers relieved, pups rejoice—cages are history, comfy couches await. NIH swapped cruelty for compassion, and tails everywhere wag their approval. Science just got kinder!
• TEENAGER BUILDS APP THAT BEATS HEART SURGEONS AT THEIR OWN GAME. Meet Siddharth — age 14, armed with machine learning, and apparently here to disrupt cardiology before getting his learner’s permit. His app can detect up to 40 heart conditions in seconds, using ECG data and outscoring human doctors: 96% accuracy vs their 54%. That’s not a typo. The kid’s app is almost twice as accurate as the average physician. Next up? He’s working on diagnosing lung diseases. Because, you know, why not reinvent medicine between math homework? 
• CHICKEN GIANT DITCHES PETROLEUM DYES: RFK JR. ANNOUNCES TYSON FOODS GOING AU NATURAL. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. revealed that Tyson Foods is eliminating all petroleum-based dyes from its food products by month's end. The food processing giant's move aligns with Kennedy's well-documented stance against artificial food additives, which he's repeatedly linked to various health concerns - a view that formerly made him an outsider but now guides federal policy. This represents one of the first major food industry shifts under Kennedy's HHS leadership, as America's largest meat producer responds to the administration's focus on natural ingredients.
• NYPD SWARMED BY TEEN GANG DURING TIMES SQUARE ARREST — CHAOS CAUGHT ON VIDEO. Two NYPD officers attempting to stop an apparent teen assault in Times Square were suddenly surrounded by a violent group believed tied to the Tren de Aragua (TDA) gang. Video shows the suspects pushing officers, hurling objects, and flashing gang signs before scattering. At least one suspect is just 12 years old. (video)
• DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION TO HARVARD: NO MORE FEDERAL GRANTS FOR YOU. Harvard just got a hard stop from the federal government. In a letter signed by Secretary of Education McMahon, the school was told it won’t be getting any new federal grant money. Why? Allegations of financial mismanagement, ignoring Supreme Court rulings, and what the letter calls a total betrayal of American values. 
• SEC BESSENT: FOREIGN MARKETS OPENED, MANUFACTURING IS COMING HOME. "The goal is twofold. Open foreign markets—and bring back manufacturing. COVID exposed unreliable overseas suppliers in medicine, chips, steel. We can't let that happen again. It's time to rebalance the economy." (video) 
• TRUMP MOVES TO END U.S. RELIANCE ON FOREIGN-MADE MEDICINE. Trump just signed an order to bring drug manufacturing back to American soil — because relying on foreign meds is out, and homemade pharmaceuticals are in. Right now, the U.S. gets a big chunk of its medicine (and the ingredients inside them) from countries like China and India. The new plan? Cut the red tape, fast-track factory building, and hand the EPA the keys to speed things up.

• @LauraLoomer

• EXCLUSIVE: BLM-Linked Wife of Trump DOJ Nominee Raises Vetting Concerns.
• So we went from “the files are on my desk” to “the files were just delivered to my office in a truck” to “the Deep State is trying to undermine me by making me look like a Blondi” to “we don’t have a specific timeline for the release of the Epstein files”.

• @TheTranscript

• $NOW CEO on what gives them confidence to increase guidance: "The signals are amazing. Our pipeline is great. The [upcoming ServiceNow] Knowledge event is way up year over year in attendance. In this environment, our pipeline is big and getting bigger"
• S&P 500 Q1 EPS growth is now at 12% YoY, 2X the early-season forecast of 6%. (graph)
• Palantir CEO: "Our total U.S. revenue grew 55% YoY to $628M in Q1 25, while commercial revenue from our U.S. customers soared 71% in the same period to $255M...Similarly, our U.S. government revenue increased 45% YoY to $373M in Q1 25" 
• Palantir EPS in-line, revenues beat, CEO: "We generated $884 million in revenue in the first quarter of the year, a 7% QoQ and a 39% YoY." $PLTR: -3% AH.

• @CharlieKirk11

• BREAKING: President Trump has just signed an executive order to end any present or future Federal funding of gain-of-function research in “countries of concern” including China and Iran.
• IMPORTANT! If Ed Martin, acting US Attorney of DC is not confirmed by the Senate Republicans before May 20th, radical Judge Boasberg gets to choose his replacement. If the Senate GOP doesn’t confirm Ed in the next two weeks, we will have a Trump hating US Attorney in the nation’s capital. The Senate MUST CONFIRM ED Martin, NOW!
  

• @DC_Draino 

• Tom Fitton dropping truth where are the arrests? Where are the investigations? If President Trump doesn’t dismantle the Deep State with massive prosecutions, they’re going to come after him and his family with political persecutions after this term. And then they’ll come after all the strongest MAGA voices. Simple as that. It’s now been 4 months and we still don’t have a single Deep State or Epstein arrest. (video)

Quote

• @EndWokeness

• Rep. Ilhan Omar: "I am a Somali girI taken from my country. I miss my country and I dream of living in Somalia again." Let's help her out. (video)

• @JasonJournoDC

• NEW: Trump CALLS OUT Nancy Pelosi in interview segment that didn't air on "Meet the Press" Sunday morning. "If I own stock in something and I do a good job, and the stock market goes up, I guess I’m profiting." "But who really profits is somebody like Nancy Pelosi, who uses inside information. She worked for $175,000 a year, and that’s at the high end. And she’s worth $150, $200 million? Okay? You ought to look at Nancy Pelosi and you ought to look at some of these politicians that are stone cold crooks." "I was very wealthy when I came in. Being president probably cost me money if you really look."

• @WallStreetApes

• Whistleblower confirms illegal migrants were issued social security numbers so they could claim benefits and vote in our elections. Aaron Heitke was a US Border Patrol Chief “who had experience with five different administrations”. He “confirmed that under Biden, he was directed to suppress, hide, and even alter data related to the crisis at the border. Detention capacity was ordered reduced throughout the country, and new Social Security numbers were ordered to be issued to undocumented aliens. Aaron Heitke admitted that this allowed them to access full Social Security benefits and Medicaid, register to vote, and even participate in our elections.” “It never really was about compassion, was it”. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.5 -1.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 59.75 +1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.76 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.12%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.4 -.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.35% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.8 -.04%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.13%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.12%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.32%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.