Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for June is estimated at +110K versus +139K in May.
• The Unemployment Rate for June is estimated to rise to 4.3% versus 4.2% in May.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in May.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 241K versus 236K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1662K versus 1974K prior.
• The Trade Deficit for May is estimated at -$71.0B versus -$61.6B in April. 

9:45 am EST

• Final S&P Global US Composite PMI readings for June. 

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for June is estimated to rise to 50.6 versus 49.9 in May.
• ISM Services Prices Paid for June is estimated to rise to 68.9 versus 68.7 in May.
• Factory Orders for May is estimated to rise +8.2% versus a -3.7% decline in May. 
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.5% decline in May.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for May. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, weekly EIA nat gas inventory report and the weekly US Baker Hughes rig count could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

 

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +19.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.9 +3.6
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 61.7% of Issues Advancing, 36.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .97 unch. 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$24.7M
  
• 87 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 52.0% (+2.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 68.1 +.4

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 75.4% +4.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.2 +.9%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.2 -.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 63.0 (GREED) -3.0
• Polymarket: US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 31.0% -6.0 percentage points 
• Polymarket:  Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 51.0% -9.0 percentage points
• 1-Day Vix 12.2 +25.9%
  
• Vix 16.7 -.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .73 -14.1%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• President Donald Trump said Israel has agreed to the conditions needed for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, adding that the plan would now be presented to Hamas.
• President Donald Trump said he is not considering delaying his July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to resume, and renewed his threat to cut off talks and impose duty rates on several nations, including Japan. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• Google ends tests of a feature that would have let users open a snapshot of cooking-recipe content directly in web search results — a welcome development for creators who were concerned about eroding traffic to their sites. 
• Toyota is slowing plans to build EVs in the US to free up manufacturing capacity for a popular gas-powered SUV. 
• Some of Wall Street’s largest lenders boosted their dividends after passing this year’s Federal Reserve stress tests, a hurdle that regulators made easier to clear by softening some of the requirements laid out in previous years.
  Jurors in the Sean “Diddy” Combs case told the judge they reached a verdict on sex trafficking and prostitution charges but were divided on a lone racketeering charge.
• Centene shares plunged after the health insurer pulled its 2025 guidance following an early analysis of data from the Affordable Care Act marketplace that showed a significant revenue hit from a risk-sharing mechanism.
• Leveraging home sensors and AI, Whisker Labs has developed new ways to rapidly track electricity flows to detect grid faults — leaving some power providers trailing. 
• Bond traders who rapidly built up long Treasuries positions in recent weeks are counting on Thursday’s jobs report to give the market rally more room to run. 
• Jeff Bezos sold 3.3 million Amazon shares in recent days, netting $736.7 million.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day
  .
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.  

• @ZeroHedge 

• UPenn, Trump Admin Reach Deal To Strip Trans Swimmer Of Past Titles & Awards.
• The face you make when you’ve convinced NPR that socialism is just vibes.
• Rubio Announces USAID Has 'Officially' Ceased Operations. 
• "This Is The Next Level": AI-Powered "Digital Workers" Deployed At Major Bank To Work Alongside Humans
  .
• The Curbing Of The Administrative State
  .
• Bridgewater’s Flagship Pure Alpha Fund Gains 17% in 1H: Reuters
  .
• Productivity Gains From Using AI
  . 
• Judge Orders Halt To Mass Layoffs At Dept. Of Health And Human Services.
   
• "Violent Moves": Stocks Start H2 With Momo Massacre & Massive Short-Squeeze; Bullion Bid & Bonds Battered
  . 

• @CNBC 

• Wednesday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Google promotes ‘AI Mode’ on home page 'Doodle'.

• @TheTranscript 

• $AMZN CEO: One of the why questions we’re always asking is how can we help operations employees access inventory more efficiently? We’re taking a big leap forward by introducing DeepFleet, an exciting new AI model that makes our one million+ robot fleet work smarter. Think of DeepFleet as an intelligent traffic management system for our fulfillment centers. Just like smart traffic systems reduce congestion in cities, DeepFleet coordinates our robots’ movements to find optimal paths and reduce bottlenecks.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 -1.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 50.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 93.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%.
• Polymarket: US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 37.0% -15.0 percentage points. 
• Polymarket:  Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 60.0% -7.0 percentage points

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.05 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.16 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.6 +.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.25% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.2 -.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.21%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.04%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on BBB Passage Hopes, US Economic Data, Sector Rotation, Consumer Discretionary/Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.07%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.25% +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% +5.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 93.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.43%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.7 euros/megawatt-hour +2.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.4 +10.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.3 +1.0 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.2 +.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +2.2% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 280.57 +.13:  Growth Rate +10.3% unch., P/E 22.1 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.42% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 446.03 +.18: Growth Rate +19.4% unch., P/E 32.8 -.8
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .47 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.53 +57.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.4 +.1
• US Yield Curve 47.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% -.4 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.1% +1.4 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 +1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 72.8% (-2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 55.8%(-1.9 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 40.0% -12.0 percentage points
• Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 60.0% -7.0 percentage points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -97 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -137 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +163 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my utility/industrial/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +2.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +5.1% 2) Regional Banks +3.3% 3) Oil Service +3.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BMNR, MUX, MESO, LE, KLG, AEHR, BLDR, LVS, ICHR, WYNN, LGIH, OPRA, IBP, CLDX, THS, PKG, CC, DFH, PKX, MGM, SEDG, KTB, ARCB, ALGT, PRCH, HAS, FND, BBWI, OLN, LIND, RXO, LPX, VC, CCS, ZD, IREN, HUN, EYE, M, HSY, HUBG, RUSHA, WLK, PSFE, TMHC, HRI, CMPR, SEI, AGCO, BULL, HP, CUBI, CRUS, SXT, PHM, DOW, CMP, LEN, SDM, FUN, DOW, FUN, DOOO, NXT, EGBN, DIOD, XYF, EMN, SON, PATK, RHI, GFS, DHI, CADE, SJM, CNC, H, FBIN, F, XYF, COLB, BUSE, MRNA, KNX, WAL, PHH, YELP, NCLH, BJRI and UHS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ATAI 2) ILMN 3) VRNT 4) JMIA 5) KBE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WOLF 2) ATAI 3) MLCO 4) JMIA 5) MUX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) IYW 3) SHLD 4) XLC 5) XLK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +43.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.3 -.9
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 73.0% of Issues Advancing, 25.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.05 -7.1%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$4.2M
  
• 103 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
• 52.6% (+11.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.7 +2.7

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.4% -3.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.5 +.2%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 165.5 -3.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) unch.
• Polymarket: US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 35.0% -17.0 percentage points 
• Polymarket:  Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 62.0% -5.0 percentage points
• 1-Day Vix 9.1 -10.4%
  
• Vix 16.9 +.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .89 +12.7%