Monday, March 31, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @Liz_Wheeler
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @kylenabecker
  • @MarioNawful
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @DC_Draino 
  • @nicksortor
  • @Humanspective
  • @alx 
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @Susancrabtree
  • @EYakoby
  • @MAGAVoice
  • @pepesgrandma
  • @AmyMek
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.75 + basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 51.0 + basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.2 +.1%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.3 +2.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.23%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.44%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.58%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Quarter-End Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Energy/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 +.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.7 euros/megawatt-hour -.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.4 -1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.4 -.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.0 +1.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +8.4% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.37 +.28:  Growth Rate +13.4% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.0 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.57% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.27 +.49: Growth Rate +21.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 27.2 -.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .09 -22.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.37 -5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 32.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.8% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.9% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.47% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 64.4% (-.5 percentage point) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 41.9%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +532 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +8 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +344 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -2.4% 2) Biotech -2.2% 3) Electric Vehiciles -2.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • LULU, RWAY, CGBD, ICLR, ZS, CRNX, PHH, TRIN, RBRK, MRUS, BNTX, RNA, DNLI, CRSP, MRNA, EXTR, PTCT, RKT, SRPT, MNRO, BLFS, BHVN, QURE, BEAM, VERA, IIPR and PCVX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FND 2) TRMB 3) HES 4) UAA 5) IYR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SRPT 2) MRNA 3) ATNM 4) MULN 5) NVAX
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) FXD 2) IGV 3) PPA 4) XLV 5) XRT

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Energy +1.1% 2) Medical Equipment +1.1% 3) Insurance +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CORT, COOP, DFS, CELH, MLYS, LYV, AVO, HMY, PARA, AIG, DRD, OMC and DLTR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) UMC 2) MCHI 3) XLC 4) XLI 5) KVUE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) VASO 2) BLUE 3) CTOR 4) CORT 5) DFS
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) FXU 2) IFRA 3) XLU 4) VGT 5) XLK
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (NCNO)/.19
Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

  • Construction Spending MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.2% decline in Jan.
  • JOLTS Job Openings for Feb. is estimated to fall to 7652K versus 7740K in Jan.
  • ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to fall to 49.5 versus 50.3 in Feb.
  • ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to rise to 64.6 versus 62.4 in Feb.

Afternoon

  • Total Vehicle Sales for March is estimated to rise to 16.2M versus 16.0M in February.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Barkin speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for April, weekly US retail sales reports and the Dallas Fed Services Revenues for March could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +6.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.8 -7.0
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 23.1% of Issues Advancing, 74.6% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .80 -51.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$104.3M
  • 39 New 52-Week Highs, 133 New Lows
  • 34.4% (-4.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 41.3 -9.3
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.2 -4.3%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 231.4 -1.0%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,089.4 -1.4%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 20.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 19.1 -24.7%
  • Vix 22.4 +3.7%
  • Total Put/Call .99 -2.0%

Sunday, March 30, 2025

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    
Zero Hedge: 
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (CARR).
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @JimFergusonUK
  • @MarioNawfal
  • PANAMA PORT DEAL DELAYED AS CHINA MOVES TO BLOCK BLACKROCK PURCHASE. CK Hutchison will not sign its $19B deal to sell 2 Panama Canal ports to a BlackRock-led group next week—after China launched an antitrust review to halt the sale. The ports, critical chokepoints for global trade, were praised by Trump as key to pushing back Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere. Beijing is furious. State media slammed the deal as a betrayal, and Chinese regulators are now pressuring billionaire Li Ka-shing to abandon the sale altogether.
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • @wideawake_media
  • @RealDrJaneRuby
  • @StephenM
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @KevinnBass
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @RepJamesCorner
  • @Catturd2
  • BREAKING NEWS. The British Sentencing Council has decided that starting Tuesday, white men will be sentenced to longer prison sentences than women and ethnic minorities. UK has fallen. This is a government we want to protect and be friends with? No. The UK should no longer be considered an ally.
  • @JohnLeFevre
  • Headline: DOGE is slashing medical research funding. Reality: After you eliminate the bureaucratic and administrative skimming and kickbacks, actual medical research funding goes up. Headline: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits are being taken away. Realty: Benefits and services to intended recipients go up after the elimination of waste, fraud, and abuse. Rinse and repeat this theme across the entire government to the tune of trillions of dollars in savings and efficiencies. Any person who opposes DOGE at this point is dishonest, stupid, or mad because they are in on the grift.
  • @EYakoby
  • BREAKING: The new president of Columbia University called the Congressional hearings on antisemitism "nonsense" and that the suspended student groups responsible for taking over buildings and canceling classes should be reinstated. Columbia is truly a lost cause at this point.
  • @DerrickEvans4WV 
  • @amuse
  • @karma44921039
  • @bespokeinvest
  • @IanJaeger29
  • @LaraLogan
  • @_NewsBarron
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.0 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 51.5 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.2 -4.2%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.0 +4.6%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.57%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -1.04%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, March 29, 2025

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:  

NewsMax:       

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @LauraLoomer 
  • @catturd2 
  • @kylenabecker
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @JimFergusonUK
  • @matt_vanswol
  • @HealthRanger
  • @truckdriverpleb 
  • @glennbeck
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com: