Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%. 
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• China 3.0% -17 .0 percentage points
• Canada 1.0% -12.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 90.0% +52.0 percentage points. 

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 -1.8%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 77.4 -2.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.37% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.2 +1.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.3%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.23%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.33%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by real estate and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Utility Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 -.1%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.34% -3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.7 +1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.3 -.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.7 +3.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(290 of 500 reporting) +9.5% +2.5 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 283.82 -.05:  Growth Rate +11.1% unch., P/E 22.4 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +26.0% +3.6 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 457.1 +.57: Growth Rate +21.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.7 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .48 +10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.53 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.9 unch.
• US Yield Curve 40.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% -60.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.5% -1.9 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% +19.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.72% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 -5.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 47.0% (-1.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for DEC. 10th meeting: 42.4%(+4.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• China 11.0% -9.0 percentage points
• Canada 19.0% +6.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 91.0% +53.0 percentage points. 

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -430 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/utility sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Social Media +2.8% 2) Computer Hardware +2.0% 3) Disk Drives +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NEGG, APLD, PI, AMSC, CGNX, MOD, EBAY, RSI, CVNA, ALNY, CHRW, APLS, NATL, TMDX, INDV, CRWV, ARGX, INOD, META, TSSI, RBLX, AGCO, LNC, PSIX, NVCR, VSEC, IART, WDC, NBIS, HII, XYL, HUT, RTO, LECO, TAL, NCLH, RGTI, GNRC, EZPW, APP, BBVA, MNRO, COUR, THG, AM, PTC, AM, ALL, TFX, STX, SUI, RDDT, FFIV, DSP, BWA, CMRE, AAMI, AME, ZBRA, ABVX, ERJ, MDGL, GEL, CYTK, ITT, GFL, WTW, U, OKLO, SKWD, CORZ, SYM, OMCL, CRTO, VNT, ETD, SCCO, MAS, SPGI, WAY, NET, EXAS, CRTO, ERO, MMS, APTV, APPF, LASR, EXPD, ABBV, ICUI, CNTA, SIMO, ORCL, SAIL, VSAT, AAON, KGC, TEX, WING, BNL, IDCC, SCI and AR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GNRC 2) ALGN 3) CFLT 4) SHAK 5) WDC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PI 2) EBAY 3) CVNA 4) META 5) CGNX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) MSTY 3) AIQ 4) URA 5) SMA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CBOE)/2.44
• (CVX)/1.73
• (CHD)/.86
• (CL)/.90
• (D)/.68
• (XOM)/1.56
• (FLR)/.55
• (GWW)/10.07
• (KMB)/1.66
• (LYB)/.81
• (MGA)/1.17
• (NWL)/.24
• (OSK)/2.95
• (RBC)/2.74
• (REGN)/8.43
• (TROW)/2.15
• (CNH)/.14
• (GT)/.02
• (OMI)/.28 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for July is estimated to fall to 105K versus 147K in June.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in June.
• The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated to rise to 4.2% versus 4.1% in June.  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Manufacturing Index for July is estimated to rise to 49.5 versus 49.0 in June.
• ISM Prices Paid for July is estimated to rise to 70.0 versus 69.7 in June.
• Construction Spending MoM for June is estimated unch. versus a -.3% decline in May.
• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for July. 

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for July is estimated to rise to 16.0M versus 15.34M in June. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, (SNAP) annual meeting and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge 

• JUST IN: Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno releases photos of the woman who was brutally beaten in Cincinnati after a local council member said she deserved the beatdown. Councilwoman Victoria Parks said she was "grateful" that the woman, "Holly," was beaten unconscious. Moreno is now calling out local leadership for failing the victims of the horrific attack. "This is Holly. She wanted to have a nice evening out with friends. Instead, she got this. Holly gave me permission to release the photos so that others will never suffer what she did," said @berniemoreno. "We need and deserve change." (video)
• ICE Looking To Hire Personnel, Offers $50,000 Signing Bonus.
• Trump Envoy Says This Time Oil Sanctions On Russia Will 'Bite'.
• *TRUMP SAYS HE REACHED A TRADE DEAL WITH SOUTH KOREA. *TRUMP TO IMPOSE 15% TARIFF ON GOODS FROM SOUTH KOREA.
• *MICROSOFT 1Q CAPEX SEEN AT MORE THAN $30 BILLION, CFO SAYS.
• 10 Examples That Show That Our Society Is Going Completely Insane.
• META Soars 10% To New All Time High After Smashing Estimates, Guiding Revenue, Capex Higher.  
• The 'War Phase' Of This Fourth Turning Has Arrived.
• Micrososft Shares Soar Higher On Strong Cloud/AI Earnings.
• *MICROSOFT'S AZURE SURPASSED $75B IN REV. THIS YEAR, UP 34%.
• *META 2Q EPS $7.14, EST. $5.89 *META 2Q REV. $47.52B, EST. $44.83B *META 2Q OPER INCOME $20.44B, EST. $17.24B *META SEES 3Q REV. $47.5B TO $50.5B, EST. $46.2B *META SEES FY TOTAL EXPENSES $114B TO $118B, SAW $113B TO $118B *META SEES 2025 CAPEX $66B-$72B VS PRIOR $64B-$72B.
• *MICROSOFT 4Q REV. $76.44B, EST. $73.89B *MICROSOFT 4Q INTELLIGENT CLOUD REV. $29.88B, EST. $29.1B *MICROSOFT 4Q AZURE & OTHER CLOUD REV EX-FX +39%, EST. +34.2%.
• Dollar Soars To 2-Mo Highs, Stocks Stumble As Hawkish Powell Trumps Dovish Fed.  

• @TheTranscript 

• $MSFT CFO: Data center demand continues to outpace supply. "Revenue from Azure AI services was generally in line with expectations. And while we brought additional data center capacity online this quarter, demand remains higher than supply".
• $META CEO on their SuperIntelligence bet: "We're just gonna push very aggressively on all of that. But but at some level, yeah, is this is they're sort of a bet in the trajectory that we're seeing, and those are the signals that we're seeing. We're just trying to read it". 
• $NVDA CEO: Elite AI talent can yield OpenAI-scale value, making high compensation entirely rational. "The big idea is that...150 or so AI researchers can probably create, with enough funding behind them, an OpenAI". 

• @LauraLoomer 

• The NYC Mayoral election is fake. The Democrats in the race are all secretly pulling for Mamdani. They haven’t put up any effort to win because it’s part of their strategy to gaslight the American people into thinking Americans in the most iconic city in the world willingly voted for Islamic jihad and Communism. Andrew Cuomo is working to get @ZohranKMamdani elected. I believe this was the plan all along. Cuomo ran to split the vote on purpose to help Mamdani win. In return, Mamdani will offer him a position to help Cuomo rehabilitate himself in the Democrat Party.The NYC Mayoral election is fake. The Democrats in the race are all secretly pulling for Mamdani. They haven’t put up any effort to win because it’s part of their strategy to gaslight the American people into thinking Americans in the most iconic city in the world willingly voted for Islamic jihad and Communism. Andrew Cuomo is working to get @ZohranKMamdani elected. I believe this was the plan all along. Cuomo ran to split the vote on purpose to help Mamdani win. In return, Mamdani will offer him a position to help Cuomo rehabilitate himself in the Democrat Party.

• @WallStreetApes

• Vanderbilt University, Office of the Dean, is caught on camera bragging about being “heavily federally funding”. Despite taxpayers paying their bills, each student pays roughly $65k per year to attend. She admits to breaking federal law. Still doing DEI seminars, just secretly. (video)

• @GenFlynn

• EVERY SINGLE INTELLIGENCE ANALYST IN THE UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY KNOWS WHAT LOW CONFIDENCE MEANS. IT MEANS THERE WAS NO INTELLIGENCE, NO EVIDENCE, ZERO, NOTHING. YET, THESE CRIMINAL CONSPIRATORS RUINED MANY PEOPLE’S LIVES AS WELL AS UNDERMINED THE WILL OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. THEY CONDUCTED A COUP TO DESTROY A @POTUS AND TO FUNDAMENTALLY TRANSFORM AMERICA. MANY PEOPLE MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE. STARTING WITH @BarackObama. WHERE THE BUCK STOPPED, YOU LIED TO AMERICA AND THE WORLD!

@GordonGChangRemove all Chinese equipment from our infrastructure. Do we really want Beijing to surveil us all the time? (video)
Quote

• @nicksortor

• BREAKING: Brown University has agreed to pay out $50 MILLION after the Trump admin cracks down on their woke, discriminatory policies. Brown will also BAN men from women’s sports and ditch DEI, opting for merit-based admissions MORE OF THIS! (video)

• @MAGAVoice 

• BREAKING!! The PELOSI ACT just passed out of Committee Banning Congress from trading stocks THIS SHOULD BE ABSOLUTELY ILLEGAL INVESTIGATE NANCY PELOSI.

• @EmeraldRobinson

• Here's MORE PROOF the Susie Wiles Administration is still hiring Trump's enemies. They don't have a real vetting process or counter-intel team to protect Trump. Trump had FOUR YEARS to figure it out but he's still surrounded by snakes and fools.

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: It has just been revealed that the Mexican Sinaloa Cartel - once "confident, boasting about its business" - is now instilled with FEAR. Business has come to a screeching halt under Trump. ENORMOUS VICTORY RIGHT HERE. "People are scared to come here...There's more Border Patrol, more National Guard...The business - it's been hit hard." Trump is GREAT for business - but HORRIBLE for cartel business. That's what I voted for. (video)

• @TonySeruga

• Desperate Vaccine Cabal Moves to Eliminate All Nonmedical Vaccine Exemptions for School. Faced with collapsing vaccine uptake, the Bio‑Pharmaceutical Complex chooses force over freedom. The Bio‑Pharmaceutical Complex is in panic mode.

• @newstart_2024

• Politico has uncovered a secret experiment to dim the sun, sponsored by billionaires and crypto moguls. In 2024, a group of scientists from the University of Washington attempted to launch a project in California to block the sun's rays using artificial clouds. The experiment failed due to the negative reaction of local officials: it lasted only 20 minutes instead of the several months it was originally planned for. Politico writes that no one will stop there - the attempt will probably be repeated.

• @AmyKremer

• Cobb County, GA Election Shenanigans! The Cobb County Board of Elections just pulled a fast one… 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐡𝐢𝐣𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐁𝐨𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐚 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞 𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧! No public notice. The new board had NOT been seated. Two seats waiting to be appointed. Just a shady, partisan power grab to install handpicked leadership…

• @RetroCoast

• When Saddam Hussein's nephew buys a $50 million palace, we immediately recognize it as corruption. But when Nancy Pelosi buys a $50 million vineyard in Napa Valley, we think it's okay. That's called "brainwashing the public."

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.5 -.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%. 
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• China 20.0% -36.0 percentage points
• South Korea  100.0% +27.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 38.0% +9.0 percentage points. 

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 +.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 79.8 -1.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.35% -2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.3 -3.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.13%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.84%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.24%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Fed Chairman Powell's Commentary, Rising Long-Term Rates, Dollar Strength, Alt Energy/Commodity Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 -.3%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.37% +5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.5 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.4 +5.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.7 +10.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.2 -1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(231 of 500 reporting) +7.0% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 283.87 +.13:  Growth Rate +11.1% unch., P/E 22.5 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.42% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +22.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 456.53 +.48: Growth Rate +21.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.3 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .38 -27.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.9 -.1
• US Yield Curve 43.25 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.9% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 43.4% +2.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.72% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.80 +2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 51.9% (+16.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 49.0%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• China 20.0% -36.0 percentage points
• South Korea  56.0% -17.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 19.0% -9.0 percentage points. 

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -31 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/industrial/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.4% 2) Electric Vehicles -1.6% 3) Oil Service -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PPG, BLCO, AER, WIX, CARR, EDU, PANW, RSG, MDLZ, HSBC, VRSK, GEHC, GRMN, NAVI, ESS, NVO, SMG, XPRO, TT, FCX, NXT, ODFL, TKR, DRS, IEX, UNM, ENTG, FVRR, CMCO, OI, CWH, ARCB, NEGG, CHKP, CAR, SLGN and MNRO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) REPL 2) CFLT 3) FUBO 4) SBUX 5) CRDF

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SNBR 2) ENTG 3) CRDF 4) ARCB 5) CAR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) SOXX 3) XLI 4) KRE 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers +2.2% 2) Electrification +1.7% 3) Semis +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SDM, WING, FTAI, BHVN, LC, FSS, TER, REZI, GNRC, HOG, WGS, BLKB, ATRC, ZWS, CMPR, BBNX, FDP, BMNR, SEDG, QURE, GENI, IDCC, PEN, CHEF, SITE, HUM, EETSY, HIMS, VRDN, ALMU, GLXY, VFC, RRR, MRVL, ALAB, THRY, ALHC, ASH, BE, BAND, UPB, SBET, EA, REYN, BG, CAKE, SYM, NMRK, TW, FCFS, CECO, NBR, BTSG, UPST, RIGL, VRNS, RBLX, RBRK, GH, PCH, EXE, SMCI, APLS, TTAM, HAYW, HESM, SF, CVS, RSI, GRFS, PTCT, GRFS, RNA, AEP, SONO, GKOS, ALNY, RMBS, SPOT, GSK, NNE, UMBF, TMDX, TRS, CVLT, AZN, HUBB, ASC and IVT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IEF 2) INDA 3) CTRA 4) LC 5) PARA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WING 2) LC 3) FTAI 4) FSS 5) TER

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) MSTY 3) XLF 4) XLP 5) GNR

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABBV)/2.88
• (AMG)/5.29
• (AGCO)/1.08
• (APD)/2.99
• (APTV)/1.82
• (MT)/1.15
• (BAX)/.61
• (BIIB)/3.90
• (BWA)/1.09
• (BMY)/1.07
• (CCJ)/-.04
• (CRS)/2.07
• (CVS)/1.46
• (EME)/5.74
• (EXC)/.37
• (HWM)/.87
• (ICE)/1.77
• (IDCC)/2.19
• (IP)/.39
• (LAUR)/.72
• (MA)/4.03
• (BTU)/.00
• (PWR)/2.44
• (RBLX)/-.36
• (SHAK)/.38
• (CI)/7.16
• (VMC)/2.53
• (XPO)/.99 
• (AES)/.42
• (NTRA)/-.62
• (VRNA)/.03 

After the Close: 

• (AMZN)/1.33
• (AAPL)/1.43
• (BZH)/.42
• (BE)/.01
• (BOOT)/1.55
• (CLX)/2.20
• (COIN)/1.25
• (NET)/.18
• (CUZ)/.69
• (LOCO)/.24
• (FSLR)/2.66
• (ILMN)/1.01 
• (IR)/.80
• (KLAC)/8.56
• (MSTR)/-.10
• (MIR)/.10
• (SPXC)/1.45
• (SYK)/3.07 

Economic Releases 

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for July. 

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.4% decline in May.
• Personal Spending for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in May.
• The Core PCE Price Index MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in May.
• The 2Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.9% gain in 1Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 223K versus 217K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1953K versus 1955K prior.  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for July is estimated to rise to 42.0 versus 40.4 in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q update, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (RL) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.3 -2.2
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 44.8% of Issues Advancing, 52.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.17 -17.6% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$20.9M
  
• 57 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 52.2% (-.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.3.2 +.3

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 80.9% +1.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.5 -.2%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 170.9 +1.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 69.0 (GREED) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 13.0 +2.3%
  
• Vix 16.0 +.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .87 +3.6%
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• China 38.0% -18.0 percentage points
• South Korea  62.0% -13.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 26.0% -2.0 percentage points. 

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• The US and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before it expires in two weeks: Here’s your Evening Briefing.
• Chinese sovereign bonds are coming under pressure as growing optimism over local stocks drives the correlation between the two markets toward the most extreme levels since the pandemic.
• South Korean officials met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington on Tuesday. 
• The Japanese yen has underperformed all its major peers in the past three months, and it may be at risk of further declines as political risks mount.
• Investors parsing Jerome Powell’s remarks Wednesday for any hint that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to an interest-rate cut might be left wanting .
• Attorney General Pam Bondi demanded "severe accountability" from UCLA after the Justice Department found the university violated federal civil rights laws by failing to stop antisemitic harassment on campus.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge 

• Tsunami Alerts Triggered, Japan Issues Evacuation Warning After 8.7 Earthquake Hits In Russian Waters.
• "I Am Not A Trump Fan": Disturbing Public Statements Surface From Brennan's Hand-Picked Head Of Controversial Assessment.
• And yes, it's all massive below-cost, state subsidized statecraft masking as trade. This is Beijing trying to put the world's auto producers out of business even as domestic carmakers teeter on the verge of collapse, but are propped up by state money. (graph)
• Just commenting here to explain what this chart actually shows, because it's one of the most significant economic stories that's not getting enough attention. China's vehicle exports went from basically zero to 7 million units, and this isn't normal market competition. From 2009-2023, China's government invested $230 billion into the EV industry, with spending accelerating three-fold in recent years. Over 6.6 million vehicles received subsidies up to $2,800 each in 2024 alone. 
• The 9 Supreme Court Cases To Watch Next Term.
• Jefferies: "Although value and small caps have been massive laggards this year, we think the tide could be on the cusp of turning for these stocks."  
• "The US Is Catching Up": Competition With China Over DR Congo Minerals Intensifies.
• BREAKING - All archived posts of former FBI agent Peter Strzok, who helped lead the Trump-Russia hoax, have been removed from the Wayback Machine.
• Dear New Yorkers: Consider Moving To Dallas, TX.
• The MAHA Priority Pursued By Lawmakers On Both Sides Of The Aisle.
• Federal Judge Blocks Big Beautiful Bill's Medicaid Cuts To Planned Parenthood
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• These Are The Biggest Risks To The Market And Economy, According To Goldman.
• Stocks Drop, Bonds & Oil Pop As China Agrees To Tariff Truce, Trump Reiterates Russia Threats.  

• @TheTranscript 

• Booking Holdings CEO: "We are pleased to report a strong second quarter with 8% room night growth and a double-digit increase in gross bookings & revenue, reflecting disciplined execution against our strategic initiatives." 
• Visa CEO: "In Q3 and through July 21st, even with the continued uncertainty, consumer spending remains resilient. Within the U.S., while spending growth differed among consumer spend bands, all spend bands in Q3 remain resilient and consistent with past quarters." "all spend bands in Q3 remain resilient and consistent with past quarters." "Both U.S. discretionary and non-discretionary spend growth remain strong, and we see no meaningful impact from tariffs."
• $CDNS CEO: Agentic AI is redefining semiconductor design. "In Q2, we launched Cadence Cerebrus AI Studio, the industry's first Agentic AI, multi-block and multiuser SoC design platform. This technology delivering up to 20% PPA improvement while accelerating chip delivery time by 5x to 10x was endorsed by Samsung and STMicroelectronics at launch".

• @LauraLoomer 

• EXCLUSIVE: Dozens of anti-Trump officials from the CIA and NSC who signed a 2019 national security letter condemning President Trump, which accused him of being a national security threat still have their security clearances, and some of these people still work in the 2nd Trump admin as federal employees and or government contractors. Why the Trump Administration Must Revoke The Security Clearances of The 2019 Anti-Trump National Security Letter Signatories.
• Does President Trump know that Cindy McCain is in charge of the World Food Program? He should ask her what she’s doing with the $10 billion she supposedly oversees for food distribution. If there’s no aid going into Gaza, what is @cindymccain doing with our money? USAID 2.0.
• EXCLUSIVE VIDEO: @VPrasadMDMPH, a newly appointed Trump admin official working at the @US_FDA once said he stabbed a Trump voodoo doll to “curse” Trump for the COVID pandemic. Another massive vetting failure! Incredible. Isn’t it?

• @WallStreetApes

• Blackstone confirmed their top executive Wesley LePatner was killed in the Manhattan headquarters shooting. Report shows Blackstone is behind buying massive amounts of properties all over the United States and increasing rents 38% “A new report is shedding light — It found that one equity firm increased rent prices at nearly double the market rate.” “The new report from the private equity stakeholders project takes a closer look at America's largest landlord. Blackstone is not quite a household name, but for those who have anything to do with business or finance, they are known as the biggest real estate players in the US.” (video)

• @DC_Draino

• I can’t believe we caught Maricopa County election officials ON VIDEO intentionally rigging the voting machines to shut down on election day to stop Kari Lake’s voters and nobody’s been arrested.

• @ShadowofEzra

• Virginia Giuffre stated in her own words that she was working at a spa in Mar-a-Lago when Ghislaine Maxwell approached her — ultimately leading to her being trafficked to Jeffrey Epstein. Despite her story, Giuffre never accused President Trump of any misconduct and even voiced her support for his 2024 presidential run. (video)
• Bill Gates has been given approval to spray synthetic RNA on crops through his company, Terrana Biosciences. The gene-silencing tech bypasses DNA and rewires plants at the RNA level. This means your food, soil, and gut could now be controlled by biotech—with no labels, no consent, and no long-term safety studies. The RNA can linger in soil, spread via pollen, and possibly affect human microbiomes—all under emergency-use laws that protect corporate liability. 

• @amuse 

• ELECTION INTEGRITY: What if ActBlue was simply a massive money laundering operation? It is being alleged that as much as 60% of donations funneled through the platform are from China. Senator Finchem and Whistleblower Shawn Taylor claim they have evidence that ActBlue is involved in real estate fraud and money laundering totaling in the billions in what they call, “The Motherlode of All Financial Crimes”.

• @paulsperry_

• BREAKING: Susan Miller, the Trump-hating ex-CIA analyst who's said to be the lead drafter of the now-discredited/dossier-supported ICA on Trump-Russia, is BFF w/ Caroline Kennedy and also helped write the Mueller Report. She still has TS clearance and is training new CIA recruits.
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• @OcrazioCornPop

• BREAKING: Senate Leader John Thune REFUSES to cancel August recess despite Trump’s plea to clear 100+ nominees (as well as leaving 50 Federal Judge positions open). Thune's current plan is to extend session "a few days." Worse, he’ll gavel in every few days to BLOCK Trump from any recess appointments! The Senate will be on "recess" for approximately 30 days! WHAT IS YOUR MESSAGE FOR
  @LeaderJohnThune?
• JUST IN: House Republican Appropriators have restored FULL FUNDING to the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). Trump requested $0. House GOP gave them $315 MILLION back and allows NED to take in more money through government contracts. USAID and NED funded Ukraine's Molfar and VoxUkraine (propaganda outlets), which smeared J.D. Vance and Thomas Massie as "foreign propagandists" and called for their prosecution and removal from office. Elise Stefanik served as a board member of the NED from January 30, 2019, to January 2025.

• @truthwithkari 

• BREAKING: AAP DEMANDS REMOVAL OF RELIGIOUS & PERSONAL VACCINE EXEMPTIONS. The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) has just issued a disturbing new policy statement calling on *all* states, territories, and Washington D.C. to eliminate ALL non-medical vaccine exemptions— including those based on religion, conscience, or personal belief. In their words: “The AAP recommends that all states, territories, and the District of Columbia eliminate all nonmedical exemptions from immunizations as a condition of school attendance.” Let’s be clear: this is an open assault on fundamental American freedoms.

• @MetabolicFactor

• Joe Rogan just hosted the most censored doctor in America. Dr. Mary Bowden exposed what really happened during COVID—and the cover-up runs deeper than you think. Here are 8 shocking takeaways they never wanted you to hear: (thread)

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: It has just been revealed that the amount of child s*x offenders arrested by ICE Houston in the past 6 months has already SURPASSED the child s*x offender arrests for the ENTIRE year of 2024. I voted for this. (video)
• JUST IN: New York AG Letitia James announces lawsuit against President Trump for kicking illegal aliens off SNAP. Yep. Democrats are suing to give welfare to illegal aliens. (video) 

• @Rasmussen_Poll

• How likely is it that undercover government agents helped provoke the Capitol riot? It's Likely- DEM: 59%. IND: 62%. GOP: 74%. All Voters: 65%. J6 Videos: 65% Now Suspect Feds Provoked Riot.

• @MJTruthUltra

• All in favor, say Aye. MTG Just introduced the Clear Skies Act which allows Citizen’s to report Suspicious Activity. Summary: PROHIBITS all weather modification, including geoengineering, cloud seeding, and solar radiation management. CRIMINALIZES weather modification violations, up to $100,000 in fines and/or 5 years in prison per violation. DIRECTS the EPA and DOJ to investigate and prosecute violations. REPEALS all existing federal authorities and executive orders that permit weather modification. CREATES a public reporting system to allow Americans to report suspicious activity and requires the EPA to investigate. “We must get this bill passed. Man should not be playing God with our weather!”

• @Holden_Culotta

• RFK Jr: “If you get poisoned by Coca-Cola, you can stop drinking Coca-Cola. But if you get poisoned by a vaccine, your kids still have to take that vaccine to get to the school.” “If your doctor tells you … there’s some kind of genetic vulnerability that’s affected the older siblings and your third child should not take this vaccine, he’s going to be punished for that.”

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 +.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 40.75 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%. 
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• China 56.0% +24.0 percentage points
• India 10.0% -6.0 percentage points
• South Korea  75.0% +16.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 28.0% +8.0 percentage points. 

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.92 +.14%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 78.7.1 -1.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.33% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.8 -.24%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.11%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.12%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.