Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• South Korea’s $206.5 billion sovereign wealth fund is standing by US Treasuries as a core holding, undeterred by recent market volatility.
• Italy will increase its imports of US soybeans as part of a new effort to rebalance trade between the two countries, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told reporters after meeting with her Italian counterpart.
• The US will start reopening ports to Mexican livestock in phases, after trade along the southern border had been halted in May by the spread of a parasitic fly. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• A Paris-based ESG data firm specialized in real estate is planning to dramatically increase its presence in the US, based on an assessment that Americans will soon need to pay more attention to how energy efficient their homes and offices are.
• A group of Senate Republicans is pushing a plan to soften an aggressive planned phase out of subsidies for wind and solar projects under President Donald Trump’s tax-and-spending package.
• The US Treasury didn't take measures that could have prevented or mitigated major cyberattacks, a Bloomberg News investigation found. 
• Accelerant Holdings filed for an IPO, joining a rush of insurance-related listings in the US.
• BlackRock’s Rick Rieder sees more opportunity in the stock market at the moment than at the long-end of the Treasury curve. 
• On the heels of its blockbuster IPO, stablecoin issuer Circle said it is seeking to create a national trust bank in the US. 
• Here's your Evening Briefing. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge 

• Quantum Meets AI: Morgan Stanley Maps Out Next Tech Frontier.
• A Translation Guide To Progressive Slavespeak.
• New California Laws Effective July 1 Could Impact Students, Paychecks, Airbnb-Stays.
• Disney Hit With More Layoffs As Latest Woke Projects Bomb Hard.
• Ultra-Processed Foods Linked To Brain Changes That Drive Overeating. 
• The Complete Flows, Technicals & Positioning Market Summary As We Enter The Second Half.  
• Social Media: The Biggest Threat To Teens' Mental Health? 
• Dollar Crashes To Worst H1 In 52 Years As Stocks Soar To Best Quarter Since Q1 2023 Despite Tariff Tantrum. 

• @CNBC 

• Meta shares hit all-time high as Mark Zuckerberg goes on AI hiring blitz.
• Despite tariffs, Andy Jassy says Amazon hasn't 'seen prices appreciably go up,' so far. 
• Tuesday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 

• @FoxNews

• Survivor of Mao's Cultural Revolution warns New Yorkers to "wake up" about @ZohranKMamdani: "He is a full-fledged Communist". (video)
• Fox News Poll: 6 in 10 are proud of US today – the most in more than a decade.

• @GatewayPundit

• Chinese Drug Gangs Buying up Rural US Land, says new Tucker Carlson Documentary.
• JUST IN: Senate Rejects Measure to Kick Illegals Off Medicaid 56-44.
• Democrat Infighting: Hakeem Jeffries Demands Socialist NYC Mayoral Candidate Mamdani ‘Clarify’ Defense of Genocidal ‘Intifada’ Chant.
• DOJ Charges 324 in Largest Healthcare Fraud Takedown in U.S. History — $14.6 BILLION Scheme Involved 96 Doctors, Nurses, and Pharmacists Targeting Medicare and Medicaid.

• @WallStreetApes 

• Finally MTG says it out loud. America funded the Ukraine War, “How come we couldn’t watch that war on television”. ‌ There was no war footage. ‌ American taxpayers ARE STILL paying to: ‌ - Fund the Ukraine Government - Paying for Ukraine public sector retirements, salaries and pensions - Our tax dollars are still being used to boost Ukraine’s economy and military Total U.S. Aid: As of March 2025, the U.S. has allocated approximately $182.8 billion in emergency funding for Ukraine and the region, with $83.4 billion disbursed and $140.5 billion committed. This includes military, economic, and humanitarian aid. (video)

• @bennyjohnson

• AOC built her entire political brand on being a “Girl from the Bronx.” But is that true? No. It’s a lie. I travelled to AOC’s actual hometown to investigate. It’s safe, clean, patriotic and wealthy. It’s a slice of small town American heaven. Here’s where AOC is really from… (video)

• @LawrenceSellin

• Chinese Fifth Column. In addition to her alleged criminal activities, Linda Sun (Sun Wen 孙雯), former Deputy Chief of Staff to NY Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul, has been deeply involved with Pro-CCP Chinese-American groups and the Chinese Consulate. There are many like her.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.75 +.25 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 50.0 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.21%.
• Polymarket: US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 54.0% unch. 
• Polymarket:  Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 44.0% -16.0 percentage points

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.03 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.17 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.4 -1.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.21% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.15%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.03%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deal Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.3%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.23% -5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.27% -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 94.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.11%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.9 euros/megawatt-hour -2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.4 -1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.3 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.6 -4.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +2.2% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 280.44 +.27:  Growth Rate +10.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% +14.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 445.85 +.77: Growth Rate +19.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.6 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .49 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .96 -41.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch.
• US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.9% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 46.7% +2.4 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 75.0% (+.2 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 59.9%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 54.0% unch. 
• Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 60.0% -15.0 percentage points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -97 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -137 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +163 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -1.8% 2) Retail -.5% 3) Energy -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• JHX, APOG, OPFI, VICR, MRC, FLNG, TTAM, YPF, SPRY, ARQQ, BJ, NXT and FTV

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DLR 2) CFG 3) AEO 4) CZR 5) STNE

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CHE 2) PROK 3) VSTS 4) LPRO 5) ENPH

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLC 2) XLE 3) GDX 4) XLY 5) IGV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +1.9% 2) Social Media +1.7% 3) I-Banking +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DNA, BUR, JOBY, MGNI, NMAX, GMS, HNGE, HPE, NEON, HOOD, SG, GLXY, METC, BULL, AMR, DAVE, JNPR, RGTI, SEZL, SOUN, FSLR, INDV, CAVA, BE, QUBT, HCC, SOFI, CRNC, BTU, BLCO, BKSY, LIF, RIOT, NPCE, RDDT, WNS, SEDG, IREN, TIC, SERV, CELC, AEHR, EGBN, OSCR, ACHR, ENVX, AEVA, ORCL, SYM, CLBR, NU, PRVA, WHR, CYD, INOD, FTK, APP, CAE, MARA, AVAV, SMCI, NVMI and CLSK

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) JMIA 2) VOR 3) CFG 4) AXP 5) STNG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PLUG 2) VOR 3) GMS 4) RUN 5) HPE

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) VGT 3) XLK 4) IYF 5) IFRA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (MSM)/1.03

After the Close: 

• (STZ)/3.31
• (GBX)/.98 

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for June is estimated to rise to 48.8 versus 48.5 in May. 
• ISM Prices Paid for June is estimated to fall to 69.3 versus 69.4 in May.
• Construction Spending MoM for May is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.4% decline in April.
• JOLTS Job Openings for May is estimated to fall to 7300K versus 7391K in April. 

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for June.

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for June is estimated to fall to $15.3M versus $15.65M in May. 

Upcoming Splits

• (APG) 3-for-2

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for July, Texas Services Sector Outlook for June, weekly API crude oil stock report and the (SIG) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.2 -3.1
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 52.2% of Issues Advancing, 45.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .87 -25.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$178.3M
  
• 101 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 47.1% (-.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 +3.2

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 74.4 -.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 248.4 +.03%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 172.0 +.97%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) +3.0
• Polymarket: US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 52.0% -2.0 percentage points 
• Polymarket:  Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 67.0% -8.0 percentage points
• 1-Day Vix 10.1 -17.4%
  
• Vix 17.2 +5.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .80 +8.1%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• French finance minister Eric Lombard said the European Union can clinch some form of a trade agreement with the US before a July 9 deadline.
• President Donald Trump’s $4.5 trillion tax cut bill prevailed in a crucial Senate test vote after hours of negotiations between Vice President JD Vance and GOP leaders and Republican holdouts.  
• China’s envoy to Canberra urged Australia not to be “incited” by NATO’s support for US demands to sharply raise defense spending and instead cooperate with Beijing. 
• US President Donald Trump characterized trade in cars between the US and Japan as unfair on Sunday, little more than a week before higher tariffs are set to kick in. 
• China firmly opposes any countries reaching trade agreements with the US that would sacrifice Chinese interests in exchange for tariff relief, the Ministry of Commerce said.
• Iran said it remains skeptical that a tentative US-brokered ceasefire with Israel would last, warning it’s prepared to respond to any fresh aggression. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• President Donald Trump said he has identified a buyer for the US operations of the TikTok social media app, but he won’t provide details for two weeks. 
• Taiwan said it’s made “constructive progress” in a second round of trade talks with the US
• President Donald Trump said he has identified a buyer for the US operations of the TikTok social media app, but he won’t provide details for two weeks.
• Some parts of the options markets are still showing signs of stress even after Middle East tensions eased. 
• It’s hard enough for governments to execute well on core functions like policing, schools and transit, says @mattyglesias. Why take on the assignment of running grocery stores?  
• Some investors are growing wary over the global stablecoin craze that has driven massive gains in shares of companies linked to the still-emerging technology. 
• Meta has hired four notable artificial intelligence researchers from OpenAI, ramping up a hiring spree for its Superintelligence group. 
• US bond traders gutted through turbulence to somehow find themselves notching profits as the first half ends. Now, they’re setting up for more gains.
• Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodity markets as the week gets underway. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @Zerohedge  

• and trump wins again... *CANADA RESCINDS DIGITAL SERVICES TAX TO ADVANCE US TRADE TALKS.
• *CANADA SAYS TO RESUME US TRADE TALKS, TARGET DEAL BY JULY 21.
• How Canada's Digital Tax Exposes Brussels' Globalist Playbook: A Trump Retaliation.
• This Week Could Reshape The Fed Narrative.
• What Goldman's Top Traders Think About The Market As It Hits A New Record High.
• English Trucking Rule Takes Effect, Federal Probe Begins Of Sanctuary State Migrant CDL Pipeline.
• JAPAN MAY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT -1.8% Y/Y; EST. 1.6%.
• *TILLIS SAYS HE WON'T SEEK REELECTION FOLLOWING ATTACK BY TRUMP.
• "When It's Too Dirty For The CIA..." Benz On USAID's Litany Of Corruption.
• Zohran Mamdani's Socialist Policies Would Put The Final Nail In New York's Coffin.
• Cattle Herd Rebuild Begins Just As Consumers Get Slaughtered By Record Beef Prices
• Texas Law Gives Grid Operator Power To Disconnect Data Centers During Crisis.
• *TRUMP: WE SHOULD BE AT 1% OR 2% INTEREST RATE.
• The Fed Bar To Cutting Is Slowly Being Lowered; Goldman Macro Traders.
• Mapping The World's Wealthiest Cities.
• Senate Advances Trump Tax & Spending Bill In Saturday Night Vote.
• China's Economy Spirals With No End In Sight, Says Kyle Bass
• The Business Of Broken Self-Worth In The Digital Age.

• @WSJ

• The Senate geared up Sunday for an all-night session of debate and amendment votes on the GOP’s “big, beautiful bill” after Republicans narrowly advanced the measure in a 51-49 vote.
• After repeated splits with President Trump, Sen. Lindsey Graham has been able to find his way back to the inner circle—even convincing the president approve the high-stakes strike against Iran.
• Beijing is building a broad network of preschools across Tibetan areas, seeking to instill loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party early in life.
• Trump’s Criticism of Fed’s Rate Decisions Not Necessarily a Threat to Its Independence, BIS Says. 
• A new cruise passenger tax will go into effect in Mexico on July 1 as the government negotiates with Royal Caribbean and other companies.
• Sixth Street’s Alan Waxman says his publicly traded rivals are turning private credit into a commoditized, lower-returning business.
• Heard on the Street: Mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani’s policies could hurt a promising source of new housing supply, writes Carol Ryan.  

• @GatewayPundit

• Putin: “I Deeply Respect the Current American President – As You Know, He Survived Two Attempts on His Life. He’s Very Courageous” (Video)
• EU Commission ‘Queen’ Ursula von der Leyen Braces for No-Confidence Vote Showdown. 
• Communist NYC Mayoral Candidate Says “I Don’t Think We Should Have Billionaires” – Doubles Down on Targeting ‘Whiter Neighborhoods’ with Higher Taxes.
• NEW: Senate GOP Discovers Spine – Puts Three Key Provisions Including Defunding of Medicare for Illegals Back In “Big Beautiful Bill” Following Parliamentarian Ruling.
• BREAKING: Thom Tillis Won’t Seek Reelection After Trump Threatens to Primary Him. 
• Veteran NYPD Officers Signal Exodus if Zohran Mamdani Becomes Mayor.
• Gross: CBS "Reporter" Lisa Ling Uses Her Young Child to Push Leftist Political Agenda Fueled by Trump Derangement Syndrome.
• Fatwa Calling for Muslims to Assassinate President Trump Issued by Iranian Ayatollah.
• State Department Confirms: Beijing Exploits U.S. Tech Platforms for Military Intelligence.
• Dead Democrats Keep Posting Online From Beyond the Grave — and No One Knows Who’s Behind It.
• Scandal Brews in the UK as New Female Intel Chief of MI6 Is Revealed To Be Granddaughter of Ukrainian Nazi Nicknamed ‘The Butcher’.
• Administrator Kelly Loeffler Announces Full-Scale Audit of SBA 8(a) Program After DOJ Finds Over $550 Million in Contracts Linked to Bribery and Fraud Scheme. 

• @FoxNews  

• Trump teases 'loading up' Abraham Accords with new nations after Middle East shakeup.
• If the political right doesn’t win over Gen Z with both words and action, the future will be a "nightmare for everyone," independent journalist @evitaduffy_1 predicts. (video)
• Recent satellite imagery has revealed ongoing activity and fresh evidence of significant damage to tunnels and access roads at Iran’s underground Fordow uranium enrichment site. 
• BREAKING: Two killed after suspect starts shooting at firefighters responding to a wildfire near Coeur d'Alene, Idaho. The suspect has not been caught. 
• WATCH LIVE: Firefighters allegedly ambushed by shooter, authorities give update. (video)

• @MarioNawful

• WORLD’S FIRST BRAIN IMPLANT THROUGH BLOOD VESSELS LETS PARALYZED MAN MOVE AGAIN. Chinese scientists have pulled off a world-first human trial using a brain-computer interface slipped into blood vessels instead of slicing open the skull. Led by Nankai University, doctors slid a stent loaded with micro-electrodes through a vein in a stroke patient’s neck, connecting it wirelessly under the skin to capture brain signals and trigger muscle movement. The 67-year-old patient, paralyzed on one side, can now voluntarily grasp objects and handle daily tasks, with zero major side effects reported.
• NEW “MAGIC” DEVICE COULD CRUSH STROKES… LITERALLY. Imagine a teensy tornado weaponized inside your arteries, pulverizing deadly brain clots into dust. That’s the mind-blowing premise behind Stanford’s milli-spinner - a whirling micro-gadget so effective, researchers have actually called it “magic.”
• CYBERSTORM HITS GULF & IRAN AS “ISRAELI” INDIAN SOFTWARE EXPOSED. A digital disaster is unfolding as Iran claims that software built by Indian programmers - long trusted to run everything from airports to civil registries - is secretly stuffed with Israeli backdoors, funneling real-time data on millions straight into Tel Aviv’s lap. 

• @C_3C_3

• President Trump now calling Rand “Fauci” Paul because… Rand caught Fauci lying under oath and did nothing about it. Literally nothing. I wonder if Rand’s relationship with China had anything to do with his inactivity. Trump calling Rand out is great. (video)
• Connect the dots it all makes sense. Pence gave Trump the advice to fire Flynn lighting the Russia Collusion fuse. Pence was in charge of the intentionally botched COVID response. Pence played a role in the Jan 6 election theft cover up operation. Judas from the beginning.

• @WallStreetApes

• “The Muslim Brotherhood has been working to destroy the United States from within for DECADES, this is their secret written plan exposed”. 29 organizations involved in their Islamic takeover of America. Barack Obama’s Middle East Policy Advisors involved. (video)
• Joe Rogan calls out American bread. “Our bread is so f*cked — We're f*cking poisoned”. People are not gluten intolerant, they’re poison intolerant. Here’s the breakdown. “In America what we call bread can't even be considered food in parts of Europe. See, here in America, it's not so much the gluten as what we've done to the grain.

• @elonmusk

• There is a clear path to restoring hearing with a @Neuralink, even for someone who has had total loss of hearing since birth, as our device directly activates the neurons in the brain that process sound.

• @GeneralFlynn

• There are former senior government officials that still MUST be held ACCOUNTABLE for what they did to our country! @BarackObama you’re the main culprit! If they were part of the Russia, Russia, Russia setup (and there’s too many to list here), they all need to go to JAIL, JAIL, JAIL!

• @amuse 

• DOGE: This is an absolute travesty! The second Kamala Harris lost the election, Biden unleashed a firehose of corruption, funneling $1.3 billion daily, nearly $100 billion total, to Democrat-aligned NGOs and companies before Trump’s inauguration. Compare that to the measly $40 billion the same loan office disbursed over *5 years, a mere $8 million a day. This isn’t just mismanagement; it’s theft on an unprecedented, global scale. Trump must demand every cent be clawed back immediately! (video)

• @acemaxx  

• CB policy rate outlook, chart @GoldmanSachs. (pic)

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,025,775 Reports(+454 from prior report) Through May 30th, 2025.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.5 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 50.5 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.21%.
• Polymarket: US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 54.0% -5.0 percentage points 
• Polymarket:  Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 75.0% -2.0 percentage points
• Polymarket: Another US military action against Iran before 2026 27.0% -10.0 percentage points 
• Polymarket: Will Iran Close the Straight of Hormuz in 2025? 17.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.97 -.13% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.06 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.9 +.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.28% +1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 -.54%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.32%.
• S&P 500 futures +.38%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.49%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Around X:

• @Business

• An apparent truce between Donald Trump and Mark Carney is over. Now, the Canadian prime minister faces a setback, and what some see as an unforced error. 
• The US and fellow G-7 nations signed off on a tax agreement to create a “side-by-side” system that would exempt US companies from some elements of an existing global agreement.
• Hollywood has been playing defense against Silicon Valley for decades — from the internet and file sharing to streaming. Now they’re facing a potentially bigger threat: artificial intelligence. (video)
• The Pentagon is cutting access to a key hurricane forecasting tool as the Atlantic season picks up.
• Americans are offloading gold bars and coins while people in Asia show no letup in buying the precious metal, a sign investors on opposite sides of the world have different outlooks on the global economy. 
• For today’s oil traders, headlines about bombs falling have increasingly become an opportunity to sell. 
• Meet the 12 "climate champions" working to cut emissions and create a more "equitable" future.
• Goldman Sachs’ top executive at its wealth venture with China’s biggest bank has resigned as foreign firms struggle to gain a foothold in the country’s asset management market amid deepening economic strains.
• Senate Republicans unveiled a new version of their Big Beautiful Bill, moving closer to a vote as they near a July 4 deadline set by President Donald Trump. Listen to that and the latest stories on Bloomberg News Now.  
• A minefield of geopolitical and economic threats is leaving money managers wary of chasing the stock rally.
• What happened to the global economy this week — in charts. 

• @Zerohedge 

• Eco-Hypocrites Take Hundreds Of Private Jets To Bezos Wedding.
• *TRUMP TAX BILL TO INCLUDE BREAK FOR COAL USED TO MAKE STEEL.
• The Senate version of the Big Beautiful Bill is out and it is 940 pages. (pic)
• Watch Tonight: Mike Benz vs. Cenk Uygur Debate US Foreign Aid As 'Redheaded Libertarian' Moderates.
• Gold - CTAs are getting very close to the long unwind trigger level...'
• Judge Blocks Treasury's Anti-Cartel Rule Targeting $200 Cash Transactions Along Border.
• German Police Raid 170 Homes Over 'Hate Speech', Insults To Politicians.
• Pulitzer Winning Washington Post Journalist Busted For Child Porn.
• US Reluctant To Drop Its "Economic Bunker Buster" On China, India, & Russia.
• 1900 Scientists Say 'Climate Change Not Caused By CO2' – The Real Environment Movement Was Hijacked.
• Ketanji actually put the phrase "full stop" in her dissent.
• Prediction Consensus: 2025 Midyear Update.

• @MarioNawful

• TRUMP: DEMS CHEER FOR AMERICA’S FAILURES. "WHY ARE THE DEMOCRATS ALWAYS ROOTING AGAINST AMERICA???"
• SEC. BURGUM: “NOT JUST DRILL BABY DRILL - MINE BABY MINE”. Interior Secretary, Doug Burgum: "Part of Trump’s national energy emergency is we’ve got to get ourselves back in the critical mineral business. In some places, there’s critical minerals literally laying on the sea floor, all the way to our territorial waters in places like American Samoa. We’re determined to make sure we not just drill baby drill, but we mine baby mine. This is a key priority for the National Energy Dominance Council and for Trump." (video)
• EXCLUSIVE MILEI INTERVIEW: “I CAMPAIGNED WITH A CHAINSAW AND TOOK A FLAMETHROWER TO THE DEEP STATE”. Argentina was collapsing. Sky-high prices. Empty shelves. Cities overrun by crime and corruption. Then Milei walked in, fired half the government, and said, “no more.” Woke ministries? Gone. State media? Defunded. 1,000+ rules shredded overnight. Inflation falling. Poverty dropping. Streets safe again. (video) 
• ELON’S AI BET - COULD GDP GO SUPERSONIC? Elon says A.I. and robotics could trigger a “massively increased economy in 10 years,” and the numbers back him up. Global A.I. spending is projected to hit $407 billion by 2027, with some analysts predicting it could add $15.7 trillion to global GDP by 2030. Training costs for advanced models are dropping over 70% each year, while robot production costs are falling thanks to cheaper sensors and better batteries. Humanoid robots entering factories, warehouses, and even homes could supercharge productivity - imagine millions of extra “workers” who never sleep, strike, or call in sick. A mere 1% boost in U.S. productivity could mean $250 billion more GDP annually; if A.I. pushes that to 3-4%, we’re talking multi-trillion-dollar gains. This isn’t hype - it’s the math of exponential tech. 
• AI ROBOTS CAN JUMP 41% HIGHER - AND STICK THE LANDING LIKE A GYMNAST. MIT’s CSAIL researchers just proved AI isn’t only good for writing essays or making cat memes - it’s also designing robots that can jump higher than human engineers ever managed. Their latest creation leaps about 2 feet into the air, which is 41% higher than the version humans built on their own - all thanks to a generative AI model that thought outside the box (and apparently outside the laws of normal geometry).
• TRUMP: “IRAN WASN'T MOVING MATERIAL, ONLY THEMSELVES,” STRIKES LEFT NO TIME. "Did they take it out of the deep one? No. It's very hard to do. It's very dangerous to do. It's very heavy... very, very heavy. We didn’t give much notice because they didn’t know we were coming until just, then. They didn’t move anything. You know when they moved? Themselves. They were all trying to live." (video) 
• BREAKING: U.S AIRLINES UNDER CYBER SIEGE. Hackers are hijacking more than just frequent flyer miles, hitting WestJet and Hawaiian Airlines in cyberattacks confirmed this month. American Airlines just scrambled to fix a “tech issue,” and let’s be real coincidences are rare at 30,000 feet.

• @BarronsOnline

• Had bullish commentary on (KMI), (ZG), (RKT) and (FWONA).

• @IGSquawk 

• Weekend markets update: #DAX 24088 +0.07% #DOW 43909 +0.27% #NASDAQ 22533 +0.06% #FTSE 8790 +0.08% #EURUSD 11713 -0.06% #GOLD 3278 +0.10% #USOIL 6498 +0.37% #TSLA 32248 -0.08%.

• Polymarket

• Another US military action against Iran before 2026? 29% Chance.
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? 17% Chance.
• US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9. 52% Chance.
• Reconciliation bill passed by July 4th. 43% Chance.

• @WSJ

• Cable companies and mobile carriers are in a bitter battle for your home internet bill—and it’s driving prices down
  .

• @CNBC

• Gabelli Funds highlights the AI stocks to buy as craze continues.
• How China could shut down auto factories around the world.
• At 20 years old, Reddit is defending its data and fighting AI with AI.
• Bank of America says buy these five stocks that are set to rally in the second half. 
• Stock market reclaims February record peak. How the fundamentals and technicals look now vs. then. 

• @LauraLoomer

• Today, the ANSWER Coalition is busing supporters of the Iranian regime from New York City to Washington, D.C., for an anti-Trump, pro-Iran protest organized by the Palestinian Youth Movement and the Party for Socialism and Liberation
  @pslnational. These groups have been linked to Elias Rodriguez, who murdered two Israeli Embassy staffers in Washington, D.C., on May 21, 2025 in an act of pro-HAMAS terrorism.

• @FBIDirectorKash

• While Americans were locked down and desperate for PPE, Linda Sun and Chris Hu cashed in - allegedly lining their pockets while serving CCP interests. This is corruption that endangered lives. The FBI will not tolerate public officials who sell out their country.

• @FoxNews 

• “There's really no incentive for any other country to do anything other than peace in the Middle East.” Former Deputy National Security Advisor @realKTMcFarland says President @realdonaldtrump’s crippling of Iran’s nuclear program is paving the way for real change in the region, including possible expansion of the ‘Abraham Peace Accords’ between Israel and more Arab nations. (video)
• New Pew Research poll revealed Trump's diverse voter coalition with increased support from Hispanic, Black and Asian voters, plus strong backing from non-college educated voters. 
• Acting @ICEgov Director @RealToddLyons details efforts to detain Iranian nationals in the U.S. illegally amid growing national security concerns following President  @realdonaldtrump 's strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. (video)

• @GatewayPundit 

• CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS? Researcher Suggests Biden’s Autopen Signatures May Not Be His (Likely Jill’s) – Meaning All Autopen Signed Documents Are Forgeries.
• BREAKING: RINO Senator Thom Tillis to Vote NO on Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” – Jeopardizing President’s Legislative Agenda .

• @MarketWatch

• AI could wipe out entire Wall Street teams. Here’s who will have staying power.

• @WallStreetApes

• The Democrat Party is going full communism and aren’t even hiding it anymore. Former Democrat Rep Jamaal Bowman: “The word ‘socialism’ has been weaponized as Anti-American." He said “All Democrats must endorse Zohran Mamdani”. Socialism leads to Communism. (video)
• BREAKING: Nancy Pelosi’s husbands net worth has just been reported at $413 million dollars. Paul Pelosi is one of the best insider traders on the planet. In a single month he made $5 million dollars trading options. Yet amazingly, Nancy Pelosi never gets any visits from the FBI. 

• @ElectionWizard

• NEW: Warren Buffett donates record $6 billion Berkshire shares to the Gates Foundation.

• @TonySeruga

• A new American Security Project report reveals a CCP plot to brainwash Americans through America's own technology. Major AI chatbots, including those from Microsoft, ChatGPT, and Gemini, are now echoing the CCP's cognitive warfare. The investigation shows these bots censor facts and push CCP-approved lies on sensitive topics like the origin of COVID-19 and the Tiananmen Square Massacre in both English and Chinese. Link to article in the comments.

• @MikeBenzCyber

• Timeline of Bill Gates's relationship with China, from 35 years ago to present. (pic)

• @nicksortor

• JUST IN: Rwanda’s foreign minister gives HUGE praise to Trump after 47 brokered an “impossible” peace deal. “This conflict has been going on for 30 YEARS. There have been MANY attempts at mediation, but none of them succeeded. This happened thanks to your leadership!” (video)

• @iAnonPatriot

• Mamdani says 'white neighborhoods' should pay higher property taxes. How is this not racist?? (pic)
• New Yorkers are now showing up in DROVES to support Eric Adams.. (video)

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,025,775 Reports(+454 from prior report) Through May 30th, 2025. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.