Monday, November 21, 2016

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:42 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -.8% 2) Papers -.7% 3) I-Banks -.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • DRYS, TSN, SXL, TSNU, SUN, ETP, MTSI, CSIQ, OCUL, HSIC, IGT, CUB, YY, CIVI, SAFM, MLNX, HRL, AVXS, SINA, PANW, JKS, HRTX and BURL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KBE 2) VER 3) GPRO 4) HPE 5) DLTR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CEMP 2) SRDX 3) FINL 4) GEF 5) MGI
Charts:
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Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:17 PM
Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +2.9% 2) Coal +2.8% 3) Energy +2.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • LOCK, HW, HIIQ, PDCO, HRG, ETE, ANET, MNST, MPC, HK, POST, SYMC, BKE, MGM, RIGP, RTRX and FB
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) STAR 2) PANW 3) ULTA 4) WMB 5) SHPG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) KBR 2) WLK 3) FOSL 4) DYN 5) FCX
Charts:
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Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 11:34 AM
NYSE Composite Index:
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Sunday, November 20, 2016

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 8:44 PM
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Merkel Tells Her CDU Party She’ll Run Again as Chancellor. Angela Merkel told senior members of her Christian Democratic Union that she’ll run again as party leader and seek a fourth term as German chancellor, ending months of speculation over her political future. The chancellor revealed her decision to a meeting of the CDU’s executive board in Berlin on Sunday, according to three people who were present. She said that by seeking re-election she wants to provide stability and direction in difficult times, one of the people said. All asked not to be named because an announcement has yet to be made public. Merkel is due to brief reporters at 7 p.m. local time.
  • Negative Rates Are Failing to Halt Savings Obsession in Europe. After years of turbo-driven central bank stimulus, most Europeans still want to leave their spare cash in savings accounts, even if those accounts pay zero interest. That’s the finding of a survey by Europe’s biggest debt collector, Stockholm-based Intrum Justitia AB. “After the financial crisis, people have felt a need -- even if they have small means -- to create some kind of security,” Chief Executive Officer Mikael Ericson said in an interview in Stockholm on Nov. 16. “It can’t be that people save in a bank account because of the fantastic returns, so it must be about a sense of security, having money in the bank.”
  • Currency Vigilantes Ready to Strike Again as Italian Vote Looms. Italy’s constitutional referendum is giving the newly empowered currency vigilantes their latest chance to pounce. Investors see the euro, not Italian bonds, as the best way to express concern that Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s reforms will become the latest victim of a rising populist mood. While both assets have fallen in the run-up to the Dec. 4 vote, traders are speculating that the European Central Bank could backstop bonds in the event of a “no” result -- supporting debt markets but further undermining the single currency.
  • Japan Imports Continue Decline, Exports Fall More Than Forecast. Japan posted a trade surplus for a second straight month in October, according to data released by the Ministry of Finance on Monday. The surplus was driven by a continued decline in the value of imports, which have fallen faster than exports.
  • Asian Stocks Outside Tokyo Slip Amid Dollar’s Rally; Crude Jumps. Stocks outside of Japan retreated in Asia as the dollar cemented its ascendancy, with traders all but convinced the Federal Reserve will pull the trigger on a rate hike in December. Oil jumped. Consumer and mining stocks drove declines from Australia to South Korea, while the yen’s drop to an almost six-month low bolstered Japanese exporters, helping the Topix index to an eighth straight day of gains. Australia’s currency extended its retreat with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index at its strongest point since January. U.S. crude rose more than 0.9 percent with Brent after Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed optimism over a deal to freeze output. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index fell 0.1 percent as of 9:27 a.m., declining for a second day as Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.4 percent. The Kospi index was down 0.3 percent in Seoul, while New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index dropped 0.2 percent.
  • Oil Bets Are the Biggest in 9 Years Amid OPEC, Trump Volatility. Money managers, producers and consumers made the biggest bets on West Texas Intermediate crude prices in nine years, amid signals more volatility is coming. Global markets were roiled after Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president and as OPEC continued negotiations on a deal to cap output. The U.S. dollar climbed to the highest since January. A measure of oil volatility surged last week to a seven-month high, a sign that traders were anticipating bigger price swings.
  • Schumer Says He Can Block Trump’s Efforts to Repeal Dodd-Frank. Incoming Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, drawing a line in the sand for the next administration, said he has the votes to stop President-elect Donald Trump from repealing the Dodd-Frank Act and “the rules we put in place to limit Wall Street.” Schumer predicted that the Senate’s Democratic minority would get help from Republicans in any such fight. “We have 60 votes to block him,” Schumer said in an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
  • Here Are Goldman Sachs'(GS) Top Trade Ideas for 2017. (video) Finding the winners from populism and reflation.
  • Symantec(SYMC) Said to Reach Deal to Buy LifeLock for $2.4 Billion.
  • Boral Buys Headwaters(HW) For $1.8 Billion in Infrastructure Bet.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.0 +3.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 45.0 +1.25 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.21 -.01%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (CSIQ)/.26
  • (IGT)/.44
  • (TSN)/1.16
  • (BRCD)/.22
  • (CPRT)/.55
  • (JACK)/.88
  • (PANW)/.53
  • (SINA)/.36
  • (VIPS)/1.01
  • (WB)/.20
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October is estimated to rise to -.05 versus -.14 in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • (USNA) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Fischer speaking, ECB's Draghi speaking and the $39B 2Y T-Note auction could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

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Weekly Outlook

Posted by Gary .....at 7:06 PM
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as an oil bounce, yen weakness and US economic optimism offsets technical selling, profit-taking and rising long-term rates. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.
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Saturday, November 19, 2016

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 8:32 PM
Bloomberg:
  • Mexico Seeks Trump Talks to Modernize Nafta, Pena Nieto Says. Mexico is willing to hold talks with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to modernize the North American Free Trade Agreement, President Enrique Pena Nieto said. Mexico will seek dialogue with the U.S. on its trade relationship following comments made by Trump during his campaign, Pena Nieto said. Speaking at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima on Saturday, he defended the deal, saying that for every dollar that Mexico exports, North American materials account for 40 cents. Globalization generates more benefits than harm, he said. “We’re at the stage of prioritizing dialogue as the path through which we may able to establish a new agenda for bilateral relations,” Pena Nieto said. “More than talking about renegotiating Nafta, it’s modernizing Nafta. Let’s modernize Nafta so it becomes a more powerful, modern vehicle.”
  • U.S. Stocks Rise in Week as Trump Rally Slows Amid Dollar Surge. U.S. stocks added to the rally sparked by Donald Trump’s surprise election, rising for a second week on speculation the president-elect will introduce policies that will spark brisker economic growth. The biggest beneficiary has been small caps, with the Russell 2000 Index rallying 11 straight days to cap its longest winning streak since 2003 as the dollar strengthened. The gauge ended the five days higher by 2.6 percent. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.8 percent, with financials again contributing the most to the advance. Technology shares joined the rally after concerns over trade policies faded. The Dow Jones Industrial average edged up for the week after touching a fresh high on Nov. 15. The benchmark for American equity has added 2 percent since president-elect Donald Trump won the U.S. election, led by a surge in financial stocks and shares of industrial companies. While the former added to its rally in the week with a 2.2 percent advance, shares in companies that build bridges and make equipment were little changed. Health-care stocks that rallied 5.8 percent last week pared those gains with a 1.2 percent decline. 
  • Dollar Logs Biggest Rally Versus Yen Since 1988 on Trump Plans. The dollar posted its biggest two-week rally against the yen since 1988 amid bets that Donald Trump’s administration will pursue fiscal stimulus, boosting the U.S. economy and triggering monetary tightening. The greenback touched the strongest level against the yen since May and appreciated the past 10 trading sessions versus the euro, an unprecedented streak. Traders see an interest-rate increase next month by the Federal Reserve as a virtual lock, enhancing the appeal of dollar holdings.
  • Europe’s Bond Traders Await the Calm Before Next Looming Storm. After two weeks of being whipsawed by politics and the outlook for monetary policy, European bonds may be about to get a breather. There’s barely any major economic data from the euro zone next week, and traders are instead focused on Italy’s Dec. 4 referendum on constitutional reform and the European Central Bank’s policy meeting four days later. The Italian vote has the potential to oust Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, while speculation is growing that the ECB will unveil more bond buying to stoke the regional economy.
  • Global Bonds Post Biggest Two-Week Loss in Quarter Century. (video) Bonds around the world had their steepest two-week loss in at least 26 years as President-elect Donald Trump sends inflation expectations surging. The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index has fallen 4 percent since Nov. 4. It’s the biggest two-week rout in data going back to 1990. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen contributed to the decline by saying Thursday an interest-rate hike could come “relatively soon.”
  • Iran Optimistic on OPEC Production Cuts After Barkindo Visit. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said he’s optimistic that OPEC members will agree to proposed production cuts at a meeting in Vienna later this month. Zanganeh met the group’s secretary-general, Mohammed Barkindo, in Tehran on Saturday to discuss an accord that seeks to reduce output by as much as 1.3 million barrels a day. He described as “promising” information that was relayed to him by Barkindo about finalizing the agreement. “It is highly probable that OPEC members will reach a consensus in the November meeting,” Zanganeh said in comments published by the Iranian Oil Ministry’s Shana news service. “I think OPEC members honor the agreement and would try to put it into action.”
  • Obama Hits the Gas in Race to Regulate Before Trump Takes Reins. At federal agencies across Washington, regulators are rushing to finalize rules before President Barack Obama leaves the White House. Where the administration has issued an average of 2.2 rules per day this year, 10 were pushed out the door on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to a count by the American Action Forum. "We’re running -- not walking -- through the finish line of President Obama’s presidency," U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy said to agency staff in a post-election e-mail.
Wall Street Journal: 
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (KMX), (SAVE) and (ATRO).
Zero Hedge:
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