Weekly Scoreboard*

 Indices

• S&P 500 2,213.35 +1.20%

• DJIA 19,152.14 +1.31%

• NASDAQ 5,398.92 +1.22%

• Russell 2000 1,347.20 +2.88%

• S&P 500 High Beta 36.03 +2.30%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 122.01 +3.72%

• Wilshire 5000 23,048.10 +1.40%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,054.0 +1.04%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,080.23 +1.49%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 524.48 +1.04%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3138 +1.95%
  

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,225.63 +.79%

• Transports 9,044.21 +2.88%

• Utilities 639.95 +1.62%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 85.26 +.14%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 35.27 +1.29%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,149.08 +.24%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 999.68 +.04%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 271,114 +1.35%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 640 +215

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 44.4 -8.9%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 276,326 -.44%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,027,539 +2.73%

• Total Put/Call .79 -15.96%

• OEX Put/Call 7.12 +1,773.6%

• ISE Sentiment 115.0 +64.29%

• NYSE Arms 1.03 +22.62%

• Volatility(VIX) 12.34 -7.57%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.53 +4.67%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.51 -1.78%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.22 +.63%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,232.62 +.87%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.705 Trillion +.70%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$8.412 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 49.9 +7.0%

• AAII % Bears 22.1 -16.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 185.73 +1.80%

• Crude Oil 44.44 +2.52%

• Reformulated Gasoline 137.27 +2.78%

• Natural Gas 3.07 +7.86%

• Heating Oil 147.0 +2.27%

• Gold 1,178.40 -3.09%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 176.95 +5.63%

• Copper 266.80 +7.39%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 207.0 USD/Ton +3.92%

• China Iron Ore Spot 79.61 USD/Ton +9.37%

• Lumber 334.40 +3.88%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,163.24 +1.46%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.6% unch.
• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +6.2% unch.
  

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1120 -.45%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 129.91 +.24%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.30 +1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 63.30 +22.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.6 +.2 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change 100.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 12/14

• US Dollar Index 101.49 +.15%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,496.31 +.02%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.16 +2.06%

• Yield Curve 124.0 -4.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.36% +3.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.427 Trillion +.29%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.99 -.03%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 358.0 -.08%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 23.47 +6.95%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 44.30 -1.28%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 101.22 -2.33%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 73.60 -1.41%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 749.69 -.01%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 229.88 -1.4%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.87 +.07%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.93% -2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 44.5 -4.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.75 -4.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -55.25 -4.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 73.25 -3.96%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 614.0 -.53%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 108.77 +.05%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 270.98 -3.35%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 137.50 -2.0 basis points
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.382 Trillion +2.9%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 922.0 +1.10%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 251,000 -2,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.5% +10.0 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.03% +9.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 460.30 +5.5%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.8 -.6 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +.9% +10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.13/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,181.0 -6.05%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 777.13 +.13%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 276,384 +2.75%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +3.2%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +1.0%

Leading Sectors

• Steel +11.3%

• Gaming +5.4%

• Telecom +3.2%

• Defense +3.3%

• Energy +3.0%

Lagging Sectors

• Gold & Silver -.9% 

• Biotech -1.2%

• Medical Equipment -1.9%

• Drugs -2.1%

• Hospitals -3.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (12)

• HW, LOCK, FOXF, VRTV, DLTR, FBNC, PLNT, PERY, ACRS, PFSI, HRG and JACK

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)

• AMWD, WMK, CIVI, LLY, URBN, TSN, PANW, CVGW, PDCO, DY and JUNO

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Finish Higher on Economic Optimism, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Utility/Telecom Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.34 -.72%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.16 +.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.22 +.09%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.53 +.51%

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +15.0%
  

• Total Put/Call .79 -17.71%

• NYSE Arms 1.03 +58.22% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.25 -.69%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 614.0 +.02%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 108.77 +.36%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.48 +1.54%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 44.30 +1.86%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 270.98 +.18%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.88 -.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 44.5 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -55.25 -.5 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.08 +.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .49% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 124.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $79.61/Metric Tonne +3.48%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.30 +3.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 63.5 +17.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.6 -.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.93% -2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Feb. 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 15 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +18 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +28 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -30.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 57.9% of Issues Advancing, 37.8% Declining
• 172 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
• 56.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.4%
• Vix 12.6 +1.5%
• Total Put/Call .64 -33.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.26 +93.4%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.75 +2.25 basis points. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 43.5 +.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.02 +.01%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.30%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.40%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Advance Goods Trade Balance report for October is estimated at -$59.0B versus -$56.5B in September.
• Preliminary Wholesale Inventories MoM for October are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in September.

9:45 am EST

• Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for November is estimated at 54.8 versus 54.8 in October. 

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK GDP report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.8% Above 100-Day Average
• 4 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 41.3% of Issues Advancing, 55.5% Declining
• 187 New 52-Week Highs, 30 New Lows
• 57.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.1%
• Vix 12.7 +2.2%
• Total Put/Call 1.01 +1.0%
• TRIN/Arms .75 -49.8%