Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,517.1 +2.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 34,925.7 +1.9%

• NASDAQ 14,111.4 +2.2%

• Russell 2000 1,797.2 +5.3%

• NYSE FANG+ 8,200.9 +2.4% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 32.3 +7.9%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 129.6 +8.4%

• Wilshire 5000 44,778.2 +2.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,900.0 +2.1%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,518.9 +2.7%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 732.54 +.7%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,324.60 +1.3%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,979.4 +2.9%

• Transports 14,909.0 +3.4%

• Utilities 862.7 +3.1%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 86.78 +4.0%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.3 +2.5%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 186.14 -.56%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 105.8 +.39%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 454,221 +1.16%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.6-14.5%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -81 +301
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -34.4 unch.

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 235,970 -10.0%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,688,562 +1.0%

• Total Put/Call .84 -17.3%

• OEX Put/Call 1.36 -13.24%

• ISE Sentiment 139.0 +28.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.03 -2.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.4 -.6%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .28 +12.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .21 -3.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 13.8 -2.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .42% -65.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 19.4 -13.4%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.25 -4.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.74 +.13%

• Smart Money Flow Index 12,989.8 +2.6%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  72.1 +10.3
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.734 Trillion +.38%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$7.161 Million

• AAII % Bulls 43.8 +2.8%

• AAII % Bears 28.1 +3.3%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 273.63 -.75%

• Crude Oil 75.85/bbl. -2.0%

• Reformulated Gasoline 218.17 -.15%

• Natural Gas 2.96 -3.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.1 euros/megawatt-hour -3.4%
  

• Heating Oil 277.40 +1.9% 
• Newcastle Coal 125.5 (1,000/metric ton) -3.5%
  

• Gold 1,980.46 +2.2%
• Silver 23.74 +6.8%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 407.07 +1.2%

• Copper 373.60 +4.0%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 383.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.52%

• China Iron Ore Spot 128.95 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%

• CME Lumber  540.0 +.93%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,589.40 +.01%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 337.50 USD/Short Ton -.74%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q Forecast +1.97% +.09 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.3% +2.8 percentage points
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.4 +22.4%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 94.0 +71.4%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(471 of 500 reporting) +2.6% -.2 percentage point

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.92 +1.06:  Growth Rate +9.1% +.5 percentage point, P/E 18.7 +.6
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.15% +3.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +38.4% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.62 +1.61: Growth Rate +63.2% +1.0 percentage point, P/E 29.6 +.8
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.40 -13.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -39.0 +8.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.4 -1.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply .00%(-0.0 percentage point) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 100.0%(+9.1 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(-9.1 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 12/13
  

• US Dollar Index 103.94 -1.8%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,701.2 +.96%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 36,410.9 -1.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.50 +.86%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -47.0 -3.25 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.44% -19.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.779 Trillion -.59% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.241 Billion -5.5%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 56.34 -6.4%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 193.43 -3.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 177.0 -9.0 basis points
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.1 -2.6%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.11 -11.0%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 152.78 -7.5%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 127.41 +4.2%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.17 -6.3%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.26 +1.6%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 72.7 +2.1%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.9% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.2% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.3% -40.0 basis points
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.9% +20.0 basis points
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.55% -8.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.10% -18.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29% -5.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 24.5 +1.25 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.75 -1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.5 +3.0 basis points
  

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.34 -6.1%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 177.0 -.02% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 344.0 -6.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 81.3 -6.8%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 251.40 -7.7%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 193.55 -8.6%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 157.0 -13.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 943.0 +33.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .96 -2.0 basis points
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.6% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,243.0 +.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 220,250 +3.7%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% +10.0 basis points
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.5 +1.9%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.69% -18.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 170,500 +2.8%

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.0% -10.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -5.0% -2.0 percentage points
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $98.3M -18.1%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.33/gallon -.11/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,758.0 +7.0%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 872.11 +3.4%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 36.3 -8.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 263,603 +1.3%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,540,842 +25.5%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +5.7%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +2.2%

Leading Sectors

• Regional Banks +9.5%

• Airlines +9.4%
• Alt Energy +8.1%
  

• Digital Health +7.1%
  

• Medical Equipment +6.0%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Education +1.2%
  

• Insurance +.7%
  

• Pharma +.6%

• Video Gaming +.4%
  

• Oil Service +.1%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (50)

• GPS, TWST, SAVE, ICVX, CRSP, BMEA, ARCT, AMRC, THC, SGML, GLOB, QFIN, BEAM, BKE, ROST, MANU, AMCX, SATS, M, NTLA, TH, ANF, MEG, CUBI, SWTX, DAVA, WSM, ACLX, EXPE, BMA, BURL, NTES, DAR, LPG, DAKT, LI, SU, SDRL, VNOM, TRMD, ODD, ABCM, BILL, CARS, LSPD, CNHI and APA
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)

• CMP, RILY, NAPA, BJ, AMAT, AAP, DLB, HAE, AMSWA, BZH and SPB
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Stable Long-Term Rates, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Short-Covering, Retail/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.7 -4.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .42% -26.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.8 -.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.4 -.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.7 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.1 -1.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 147.0 +40.0
  

• Total Put/Call .84 -13.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.05 -37.5% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$161.1M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 -.41%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 346.28 -1.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 344 -2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.1 -1.9% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 251.8 -1.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 177.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.9 -.06%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 194.03 -2.3%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 127.4 +1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.26 +.24%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.5 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 23.75 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.5 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 158.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 943.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 96.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.8 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 129.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.46%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.06 euros/megawatt-hour -1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.4 +3.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -39.0 +1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.4 +.1 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(471 of 500 reporting) +2.6% -.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.92 +.13:  Growth Rate +9.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.7 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.15% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +38.4% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.62 +.77: Growth Rate +63.2% +.5 percentage point, P/E 29.6 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .21 -7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -46.25 basis points (2s/10s) -7.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +1.97% -23.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.55% unch.: CPI YoY +3.10% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st FOMC meeting: 100.0%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 20th meeting: 72.0%(+5.5 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -30 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +53 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/transport/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (A)/1.35
• (KEYS)/1.87
• (ZM)/1.08
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Oct. is estimated to fall -.7% versus a -.7% decline in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 20Y Bond auction, Needham Consumer Tech E-Commerce Conference and the Barclays Automotive/Mobility Tech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.3 -1.5
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 71.0% of Issues Advancing, 26.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.18 -29.8% 
• Non-Block Money Flow +$167.6M
  
• 39 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 43.8%(+6.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 +4.0

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.7 -.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,593.3 -.65%
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.7 -24.2%
  
• Vix 13.8 -3.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .88 -9.3%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.75 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.25 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 130.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.8 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.9 +1.3%
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.2 +.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.39%.

• S&P 500 futures +.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Technical Selling, Retail/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.1 -.71%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .57% +53.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.8 -3.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.9 -.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.76 +.91%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.4 -7.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 107.0 -24.0
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +9.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.54 +126.4% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$110.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.53 +.54%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 350.9 +3.98%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 346 -14
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 82.64 +1.4% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 254.41 +1.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 176.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.8 -.44%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 198.26 -.45%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 125.60 -.88%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.0 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 23.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.25 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 158.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 942.0 +9.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 97.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.8 +.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 131.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.03%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.84 euros/megawatt-hour -2.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.2 -7.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -40.5 +1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.3 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(468 of 500 reporting) +2.9% +.4 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.79 +.76:  Growth Rate +9.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 18.7 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.15% +4.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +38.4% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.85 +.23: Growth Rate +62.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.5 -.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .21 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .28 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -39.25 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.20% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.55% unch.: CPI YoY +3.10% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st FOMC meeting: 97.8%(-2.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 20th meeting: 66.5%(-9.5 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -40 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -66 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long