Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Global Virus Worries, Rising Biden Presidency Odds, Oil Decline, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.75 +3.86%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 11.0 -101.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.91 -.40%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.62 -.09%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.49 -.61%

• ISE Sentiment Index 114.0 -11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .82 +5.1%

• NYSE Arms .68 -56.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.48 -.16%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 881.79 +.88%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.70 -1.19%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.36 +.34%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 227.61 +1.48%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.96 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 14.5 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.0 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  90.5 -1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.30 -.29%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 54.5 -1.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.26 USD/Metric Tonne -.53%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 164.2 -3.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.20 -8.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.0 -.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +175 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +27 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

 

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -2.0% 2) Video Gaming -1.8% 3) Software -1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ALXN, IONS, SDC, FATE, ATVI, CHWY, SLP, EXPI, DPHC, TSLA, CVNA, EVBG, DXCM, SSD, OSTK, XNCR and BE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WMB 2) TWLO 3) IYR 4) KRE 5) XBI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DXCM 2) WTTR 3) AMZN 4) LBTYA  5) TWTR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

 

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +3.7% 2) Steel +2.7% 3) Banks +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CFFN, TWLO, NUS, RNST, BBBY, PACB, LAD, IVZ, ACM, NOVA and AVYA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CLNY 2) TWLO 3) LEVI 4) PACB 5) EDIT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TWLO 2) BBBY 3) NUS 4) ARA 5) PACB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -20.9% Below 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 27.0% of Issues Advancing, 70.0% Declining
• 29 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 43.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index -17.0 -130.0 points
• Vix 28.3 +6.1%
• Total Put/Call .84 +7.7%
• TRIN/Arms .91 -41.3%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Japan’s Jobless Rate Edges Up to a Three-Year High.
• Second Cyber Attack in a Week Hits Global Shipping Industry.  
• Brexit Talks Are Due to Wrap But the Market Volatility May Go On.
• Japan Stocks Rise as Trading Reopens Post Outage: Markets Wrap. Japanese stocks advanced as trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange resumed after Thursday’s outage, while holiday closures in other major Asian markets may make for a subdued equity trading session. The dollar was steady ahead of the monthly U.S. payrolls data. Shares in Tokyo opened higher, while those in Australia dipped. S&P 500 contracts edged down. U.S. shares earlier rose as traders awaited the outcome of fiscal-stimulus talks between Democratic lawmakers and the White House. The House of Representatives passed a $2.2 trillion Democrat-only fiscal stimulus package after the most concerted talks between the top negotiators since early August failed to yield a bipartisan agreement. Low trading activity and reduced liquidity could exacerbate moves in Friday trading with China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India and South Korea all shut for holidays. Oil fell amid concern the market may be oversupplied. Gold and Treasury yields were steady. S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% as of 9:19 a.m. in Tokyo. The index rose 0.5% on Thursday. Japan’s Topix index added 0.6%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.6%.  
• Oil Set for Second Weekly Loss on Deteriorating Demand Backdrop.
• Still No Deal, Global Debt Alert, Hong Kong Crackdown: Eco Day.
• Pelosi-Mnuchin Calls Yield No Deal Yet on U.S. Virus Stimulus.
• New York City Under Pressure; CDC Funds Stalled: Virus Update.
• Manhattan Office Space Floods Market in Biggest Jump Since 2008.  
• Pushing for More Scrutiny of Chinese Stocks Traded in the U.S.   
• Cerberus Is Repackaging Near-Junk CMBS Into Top-Rated Securities.

Wall Street Journal:

• Long Before Nikola Trucks, Trevor Milton Sold Investors on Startups That Faded.
• Home Sales Surge in Resort Towns Even as Covid Looms Large Over Ski Season.
• Pandemic Pain Persists for Big Oil Companies.
• The U.S. Economy Was Laden With Debt Before Covid. That’s Bad News for a Recovery.  
• U.S. Auto Sales Show Signs of Recovery in Third Quarter.

Fox News:

• Reporter finds no guards, no cameras at elections warehouse.
• First state in the country lifts mask mandate as COVID cases fall.
  

CNBC.com:

• Amazon says more than 19,000 workers got Covid-19.
• House antitrust panel nears final steps in its investigation of Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google.
• September was a bad month for stocks, and October might be rocky too: CNBC After Hours.
• Twilio shares rise as it forecasts more quarterly revenue than expected.
  

MarketWatch.com:     

• Here are the biggest winners in a solid third quarter for U.S. stocks.
  
• Why billionaire investor Leon Cooperman says there are ‘three stock markets,’ as he warns about danger in FAANG stocks.
  
• IMF scrambles as potential global debt crisis comes into view.

Zero Hedge:  

• "No, Not Trump, Not Ever": Second Debate Moderator Worked For Biden, Tweeted Resistance Screed.
• Trump Adviser Hope Hicks Tests Positive For COVID-19.
• House Democrats Pass $2.2 Trillion Virus Relief Bill, Crushing Hopes For Compromise Stimulus Before The Elections.
• Macau Gaming Revenues Remain Down 90% In September As Slump Continues.
• Rising Homicides This Year May Be Yet Another Side-Effect Of COVID Lockdowns.
• Gallup Finds Majority Of Americans Believe Trump Will Win Re-election.
• Pfizer CEO Says COVID-19 Vaccine "Will Be Ready At The Speed Of Science": Live Updates.
• California Gov. Newsom Signs Bill Paving Way To Study Slavery Reparations.
• Copper, Crude, Crypto, & Credit Clobbered As Stimulus Hopes Fade.

The Epoch Times:

• 150 Human Rights Groups Rally to Oppose Chinese Communist Party’s Ruling.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.25 -3.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 47.5 -.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.43 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 57.0 -55.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 32.45 -.08%
• FTSE 100 futures -.09%.

• S&P 500 futures -.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Sept. is estimated at 875k versus 1,371K in Aug.
• The Unemployment Rate for Sept. is estimated to fall to 8.2% versus 8.4% in Aug.
• Avg. Hourly Earnings MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Aug. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +6.4% gain in July. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Brazil Industrial Production report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finished modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Tech/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.8 +1.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.0 -103.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.39 +.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.79 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.1 -6.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 +10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .74 -9.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.87 +261.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.19 -.06%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 875.39 -.43%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.62 -.8%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.20 -2.85%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 224.41 -2.88%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.96 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 13.25 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  92.0 -.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.75 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.46 +.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% -2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 56.25 +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.94 USD/Metric Tonne -.09%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 167.9 -5.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.60 +1.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.6 +1.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 -2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +148 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +163 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -31 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/consumer staple sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -3.1% 2) Oil Service -2.0% 3) Road & Rail -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SAGE, ANGO, GMHI, WLL, WMB, XOM, ALGN, HES, ATRC, DVA, FANG, HFC, VST, SBGI, SHLL, TPB, ABMD, HP, CELH, OSH, HAL, VLO, FROG, CRDF, PAR and KYMR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BBBY 2) CLR 3) AEO 4) CAR 5) VLO
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SELB 2) TXT 3) VLO 4) PT  5) DVA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.6% 2) Retail +2.4% 3) Gaming +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AMAG, AEL, BBBY, NKLA, SAIL, ODT, BRP, CNST, CDNA, LAD, DECK, FVAC, RUN and SUI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BBBY 2) AXTA 3) ON 4) FTAI 5) PEP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BBBY 2) Z 3) PENN 4) SAIL 5) DPZ

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

 

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -17.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 57.3% of Issues Advancing, 38.8% Declining
• 56 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
• 41.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 114.0 -50.0 points
• Vix 26.3 -.1%
• Total Put/Call .88 +7.3%
• TRIN/Arms 2.27 +336.5%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.25 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 48.25 -3.0 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.37 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 146.0 -18.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 32.45 -1.29%
• FTSE 100 futures +.29%.

• S&P 500 futures +.41%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.41%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BBBY)/-.29
• (CAG)/.57
• (STZ)/2.51
• (PEP)/1.49
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Sept.
  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 850K versus 870K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 12200K versus 12580K the prior week.
• Personal Income for Aug. is estimated to fall -2.5% versus a +.4% gain in July.
• Personal Spending for Aug. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.9% gain in July.
• The PCE Core MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.1% gain in July.
• ISM Manufacturing for Sept. is estimated to rise to 56.4 versus a reading of 56.0 in Aug.
• ISM Prices Paid for Sept. is estimated to fall to 58.8 versus 59.5 in Aug. 

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Sept. are estimated to rise to 15.7M versus 15.19M in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Eurozone PMI report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the (TWLO) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finished modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

 

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Stimulus Hopes, US Economic Data, End-of-Quarter Window-Dressing, Healthcare/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.6 -2.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 192.0 +87.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.16 -.33%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.90 -1.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.9 +1.88%

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 -2.5%

• NYSE Arms .45 -73.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.9 -3.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 880.89 +.28%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.25 -2.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.41 +.24%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 228.45 -3.08%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.93 -.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 unch.

• TED Spread 13.0 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.25 +2.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  92.75 -.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 589.35 +.67%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 52.25 -.75 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.10%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 172.9 +4.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.80 -.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.3 +1.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 +2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +215 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/industrial/consumer staple sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -1.4% 2) Paper -.2% 3) Education -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SHLL, TWST, AMSC, ANGO, SRNE, VIR, WKHS, BIG, CLDX, FMCI, WDC, MU, PRGS, PAR, EPAC, UNFI and IMXI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MU 2) BBBY 3) REGN 4) XLI 5) EFA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BTU 2) IRWD 3) DIS 4) AWI  5) MAS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume