Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,327.71 +3.16%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 29,102.51 +3.01%

• NASDAQ 9,520.51 +3.96%

• Russell 2000 1,656.78 +2.65%

• S&P 500 High Beta 46.38 +3.74%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 154.03 +3.29%

• Wilshire 5000 33,966.22 +3.07%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,876.58 +3.69%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,348.33 +2.47%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 660.01 +1.87%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,165.30 +1.11%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,350.29 +5.26%

• Transports 10,857.73 +2.96%

• Utilities 931.83 -.56%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 79.19 +6.74%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 43.62 +3.01%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,278.41 +.65%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 941.09 +.14%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 401,473 +.64%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 29 +460

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls n/a

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 461,762 -11.3%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,172,019 +1.17%

• Total Put/Call .96 -10.3%

• OEX Put/Call 1.85 +33.0%

• ISE Sentiment 64.0 -6

• NYSE Arms 1.48 -36.8%

• Volatility(VIX) 15.49 -17.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.85 -11.01%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.15 -5.68%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.93 +1.47%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,186.01 -1.32%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.617 Trillion -.11%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$12.580 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 33.9 +5.9%

• AAII % Bears 35.2 -4.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 170.12 -.11%

• Crude Oil 50.39 -2.27%

• Reformulated Gasoline 152.73 +1.59%

• Natural Gas 1.85 +.60%

• Heating Oil 164.25 +1.21%

• Gold 1,573.40 -.89%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 164.36 +.04%

• Copper 254.85 +1.39%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 262.0 USD/Metric Tonne -9.3%

• China Iron Ore Spot 78.77 USD/Metric Tonne +1.51%

• Lumber 439.60 +1.06%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 889.03 +.97%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.68% -6.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +5.9% unch.
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 30.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0411 +23.1%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 263.68 +157.73%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 177.69 -.09%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.4 +37.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.5 -30.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.5 +2.7 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 89.7% chance of no change, 10.3% chance of rate cut on 3/18

• US Dollar Index 98.70 +1.37%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,650.87 +.25%

• Bitcoin/USD 9,755.91 +4.32%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.66 -.06%

• Yield Curve 20.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.58% +5.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.128 Trillion +.38%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14.85 -.24%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 161.91 -.02%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -4.0 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 35.49 -15.5%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 99.23 -2.87%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.65 -.07%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.56 -8.81%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.09 -.34%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.82 -.05%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66% +2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 18.25 -3.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 5.25 -1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 +1.0 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 45.98 -7.23%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 626.0 -.61%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 49.04 -9.28%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 189.87 -3.0%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.968 Trillion -.34%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,119.4 unch.

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 211,750 -1,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.45% -6.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 682.0 +4.96%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 66.5 -.8 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.4% +10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.45/gallon -.04/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 431.0 -11.5%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 -25.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 268,822 +6.27%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +3.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +2.1%%

Leading Sectors

• Biotech +6.7%

• Alt Energy +6.4%

• Computer Services +5.4%

• Video Gaming +5.3%

• Software +5.3%

Lagging Sectors

• Restaurants -.2% 

• Utilities -.6%

• Tobacco -1.0%

• Gold & Silver -2.3%

• Shipping -2.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (22)

• COLL, SYNA, BILL, NOV, AAWW, PINS, TWOU, CCS, UBER, PFSI, HUBG, ESPR, VRTU, NVTA, ALEC, ABBV, VCRA, FDX, TWST, LGND and TPIC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (12)

• WWE, WEX, RCL, AIMT, OLLI, COLM, NTGR, FNF, TDC, PRO, BHE, DLX,

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Coronavirus Fears, Global Growth Worries, Oil Decline, Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.1 +7.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.62 -.54%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.92 +5.3%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.0 +3.8%

• ISE Sentiment Index 70.0 -27
  

• Total Put/Call .94 +32.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.43 +29.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 45.86 +1.4%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 624.0 +.68%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 49.12 +2.12%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -.5 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 52.98 +.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 190.17 +2.42%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.82 -.16%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 5.25 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 18.0 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 -1.0 point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.36 -.31%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve .20 -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 78.50 USD/Metric Tonne -2.59%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.40 +5.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.5 -17.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.5 -1.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65 -1.0 basis point
• 30.1% chance of Fed April 29th meeting, 46.6% chance of cut at June 10th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -137 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -221 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -51 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech/industrial/medical/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -2.4% 2) Steel -2.2% 3) Gaming -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• COLM, NTGR, PRO, TDC, FNF, VRSN, ROAD, FLT, AVTR, TSE, TPIC, ARVN, HSC, SONO, TTWO, SGH, DLX, MTW, UI, MYGN and ZGNX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GLUU 2) TTWO 3) URBN 4) NVTA 5) CCL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ACB 2) ZGNX 3) I 4) GRUB 5) GOOS

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +.7% 2) Telecom +.6% 3) Software +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SYNA, COLL, PINS, BILL, NLOK, CCS, UBER, NOV, VCRA, AAWW, VRTU, HUBG, ESPR, LGF/B, MAXR, BYND, TWOU, NVTA, PFSI, EVER, SKX, LGND, ABBV, LYFT, DT, VIR, MRNA, CURO, EAF, ALNY, KAR, TWLO, SAVE, ICE and FLO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) APO 2) JNPR 3) TDC 4) EWJ 5) ATVI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SYNA 2) PINS 3) UBER 4) NFLX 5) APDN

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +24.4% Above 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 37.1% of Issues Advancing, 60.2% Declining
• 176 New 52-Week Highs, 53 New Lows
• 63.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.8%
• Vix 15.2 +1.5%
• Total Put/Call .91 +28.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.15 +1.77%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 52.5 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 34.75 +1.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.35 -.04%.
• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ABBV)/2.20
• (CCJ)/.14
• (GOOS)/1.07
• (CBOE)/1.13
• (CNHI)/.21
• (HBI)/.51 
• (HMC)/76.80
• (SOHU)/-.40

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Jan. is estimated to rise to 162K versus 145K in Dec.
• The Unemployment Rate for Jan. is estimated at 3.5% versus 3.5% in Dec.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in Dec.

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +1.5% gain in Nov.

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Dec. is estimated to rise to $15.0B versus $12.513B in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Trade Balance report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours

Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.