Saturday, August 23, 2025

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @MarioNawful 
  • MISSISSIPPI DECLARES PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY OVER INFANT DEATHS. Mississippi has officially hit the panic button. The state just declared a public health emergency after its infant mortality rate jumped to 9.7 deaths per 1,000 live births, the worst it’s been in over ten years. Since 2014, 3,527 babies have died before reaching their first birthday. The biggest causes: birth defects, babies born too early or too small, and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome.
  • CHINA TO MAKE EVERY CHINESE KID AN AI WHIZZ. China just made AI training mandatory in schools, starting in first grade. By high school, kids will know how to train models, build neural networks, and do data analysis, while American kids are working on their multiplication tables. They’re adding courses in robotics, machine learning, and even digital ethics for high schoolers. The goal? turn the tables on the West and take control of humanity's future. (video)
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (FCFS) and (QXO).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • @CNBC
  • @cjbakermd
  • @GatewayPundit 
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @RodDMartin
  • Because this is how Democrats believe you should be pro-woman: by erasing women. (pic)
  • @HealthRanger
  • @charliekirk11 
  • @gurgavin
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @CollinRugg
  • @catturd2
  • @DC_Draino 
  • @MidwesternDoc
  • @MikeBenzCyber
  • @visegrad24
  • @TaraBull808
OpenVAERS:  
SKirsch.com:

Friday, August 22, 2025

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Falling Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 +.3%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.26% -7.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.19% -5.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne +2.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.6 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.1 +.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.0 -4.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.1 -.3 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(474 of 500 reporting) +11.0% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.43 +.15:  Growth Rate +12.9% unch., P/E 22.4 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 471.76 +1.15: Growth Rate +25.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .56 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.30 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 56.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.5% -.7 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.73 +6.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 49.1% (-2.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 48.3%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +127 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/utility/industrial/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (PDD)/15.53
  • (NSSC)/.27 
After the Close: 
  • (HEI)/1.13
  • (SMTC)/.40 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July.

10:00 am EST

  • New Home Sales for July is estimated to rise to 630K versus 627K in June. 
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for Aug. is estimated to fall to -3.0 versus .9 in July. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Jefferies Semi/IT Hardware/Communication Tech Summit and the Evercore ISI Semi/IT Hardware/Networking Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, August 21, 2025

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.75 USD/Metric Tonne -.42%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.88 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.45 -.09%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.6 +.3%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.32% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.6 -.05%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.04%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Falling Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Retail/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.13%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.33% +4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.23% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.2 euros/megawatt-hour +4.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.0 +10.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 37.9 +15.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.8 -.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(470 of 500 reporting) +11.0% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.27 +.18:  Growth Rate +12.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 470.61 +.48: Growth Rate +24.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.7 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .60 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.18 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 53.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.2% +.1 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 +4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 51.4% (+5.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.8%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +35 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -1.4% 2) Electrification -1.2% 3) Retail -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PLYM, VKTX, SN, WSO, SLVM, WMT, SCSC, BBAR, DK, GOGO, CVI, BILI, NBR, CBRL and CSIQ
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) PCG 2) COTY 3) CZR 4) GDXJ 5) WMT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) COTY 2)  SEDG 3) RUN 4) CSIQ 5) FSLR
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLC 2) XLI 3) KBWB 4) XLY 5) ARKF

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +1.8% 2) Nuclear +1.4% 3) Pharma +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • XYF, PSKY, XPEV, SUPX, TYRA, NUTX, NEGG, SDM, CPS, DRD, YMM, BZ, DVAX, NMAX, PKG, UMAC, SSYS, MNSO, TEM, TIGR, AEVA, NDSN, MDGL, CELC, SW, FRO, TEVA, LNTH, TNK, ALAB, KROS, PDD, WAY, YOU, SRAD, 
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FHN 2) EWJ 3) BLND 4) DAY 5) DUST
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SLQT 2) LYTS 3) HPE 4) NMM 5) ALAB
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLK 3) SMH 4) IGV 5) KRE
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BJ)/1.09
  • (BKE)/.83 
  • (JKS)/-23.3 
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July. 

10:00 am EST

  • New Home Sales for July is estimated to fall to 626K from 627K in June. 

10:30 am EST

  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell speaking at Jackson Hole Symposium, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, weekly US Baker Hughes Rig Count and the Piper Sandler Voice AI Day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -20.9% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.6 +.3
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 37.3% of Issues Advancing, 60.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .63 -27.6% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$263.8M
  • 36 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
  • 54.5% (-.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 57.8 -2.6
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 80.7 +.8%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.5 +.3%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 162.0 +.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 54.0 (Neutral from GREED) -2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 13.7 +25.4%
  • Vix 16.7 +6.1%
  • Total Put/Call .95 +9.2%

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.5 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.92 -.31%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.4 +.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.29% +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.16%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Falling Fed Rate-Cut Odds, More Hawkish FOMC Commentary, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.21% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.9 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.1 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.2 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.7 -.7 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(469 of 500 reporting) +11.0% -.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.09 +.16:  Growth Rate +12.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 470.61 +.20: Growth Rate +24.7% unch., P/E 31.8 -.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 -5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.12 -18.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 -.4
  • US Yield Curve 55.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.1% -.3 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 46.3% (-1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.3%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -176 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -54 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer utility/financial sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -1.0%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -2.4% 2) AI/Innovation -2.1% 3) Computer Hardware -2.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • DASH, XK, OPCH, RDDT, KEYS, EL, TGT, DY, INTC, ALC, LZB, CLDX, KYIV and JHX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) LAZR 2) SILJ 3) TGT 4) EH 5) BLSH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) LZB 2) EL 3) NVAX 4) TGT 5) MU
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) ARKK 2) KRE 3) XLF 4) XLB 5) SMH

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.0% 2) Energy +1.1% 3) Medical Equipment +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • GES, NEGG, SRRK, DK, VKTX, NEON, MUX, GDS, SPRY, COCO, HNRG, SBET,  ADI, HTHT, RIGL, CVI, BMNR, PARR, NU, LEU, DRD, AS, MDT, B, WBTN, CRMD, BZ, FUTU, UPST, CMPO, SD, W, MNSO, LNTH, PPC, DAY, AMN and XYF
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BILL 2) FIP 3) BLSH 4) TJX 5) ADT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) THAR 2) NESR 3) RIME 4) TJX 5) HTZ
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLV 2) XLP 3) IGM 4) IHF 5) XHB
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CSIQ)/1.34
  • (HOV)/3.51
  • (OSIS)/3.19
  • (SCSC)/.92
  • (WMT)/.73 
After the Close: 
  • (INTU)/2.66
  • (ROST)/1.53
  • (WDAY)/2.11
  • (ZM)/1.38 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 225K versus 224K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1960K versus 1953K prior.
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook for Aug. is estimated to fall to 6.7 versus 15.9 in July. 

9:45 am EST

  • S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Aug. is estimated to fall to 49.7 versus 49.8 in July.
  • S&P Global US Services PMI for August is estimated to fall to 54.2 versus 55.7 in July.
  • S&P Global US Composite PMI for August is estimated to fall to 53.5 versus 55.1 in July. 

10:00 am EST

  • The Leading Index for July is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.3% decline in June.
  • Existing Home Sales for July is estimated to fall to 3.92M versus 3.93M in June. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bostic speaking, Jackson Hole Fed Conference, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (ELF) annual meeting and the (MOD) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -9.1% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.3 -3.0
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 43.6% of Issues Advancing, 54.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .80 -24.5% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$30.4M
  • 60 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
  • 54.0% (-.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 60.4 +.9
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 80.4 -.03%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 246.9 -.7%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 160.3 -.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 56.0 (GREED) -5.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.2 +.1%
  • Vix 16.2 +4.1%
  • Total Put/Call .91 +1.1%

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.89 -.14%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.53 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.5 +.1%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.31% +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.51%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.09%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.22%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Jitters, Sector Rotation, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.1%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.30% -4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.20% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.2 euros/megawatt-hour -.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.2 +.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.3 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.9 -.6 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(462 of 500 reporting) +11.2% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.93 +.12:  Growth Rate +12.7% unch., P/E 22.3 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 470.41 +.17: Growth Rate +24.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.4 -.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.30 -20.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.7 -.2
  • US Yield Curve 54.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% -.2 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.4% -.4 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 47.2% (+4.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.3%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -176 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -54 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Road & Rail +1.6% 2) Utilities +.8% 3) Pharma +.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PLYM, SSYS, KYIV, WW, PINC, INTC, BRBR, NWE, VEON, LOB, XPEV, TGNA, LNW, ZK, TSEM, PANW, TCOM, NSP and IBTA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BANC 2) AS 3) BILL 4) OMER 5) VKTX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PINC 2) PANW 3) PLYM 4) INTC 5) HD
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLV 3) IYW 4) IYZ 5) IDU
Charts: