Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will use all of its regulatory power to ensure fair operations of futures markets for oil, agriculture, currencies and interest rates, the agency’s chairman said. “It’s important that the CFTC use all of its current authorities to vigorously fulfill its mission that markets are free of fraud and manipulation,” Gary Gensler, who was sworn in as chairman on May 26, said in an interview yesterday. In his first week, he “asked the staff here to report up options and recommendations with regard to these markets, particularly as it relates to the markets for physical commodities.” Gensler, 51, is reviewing his agency’s powers as U.S. lawmakers urge a crackdown of market speculators that they say caused last year’s record-high prices for oil, wheat, corn and other goods. Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, introduced legislation that would make the CFTC invoke emergency authority to stop oil speculation. Representative Bart Stupak, a Michigan Democrat, has sought limits on credit derivatives. Gensler said this year that speculators contributed to an asset bubble in commodities in 2008. He broke ranks with the former acting chairman of the CFTC, Walter Lukken, who testified to Congress on Sept. 11 that there wasn’t “strong evidence” index traders were driving up prices. Gensler wouldn’t say in the interview if he thought the same thing was happening this year. Oil prices “appear to have been divorced from the underlying fundamentals of weak demand, ample supply and high inventories,” Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist in Washington for Deutsche Bank AG, said in a June 5 note. Sieminski cited three “major macro-economic indicators” to explain the rise in prices -- optimism in the global economy, a weakening in the U.S. dollar and more money being invested in commodity index funds. Total assets under management for one company’s group of commodity exchange-traded funds “is now greater than it was at the peak of 2008,” Sieminski wrote. “Fundamentals do not support the price spike,” Nobuo Tanaka, the executive director of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, told reporters yesterday in Washington. Gensler was asked about Stupak’s proposal to ban “naked” credit-default swaps, a derivatives agreement where the investor doesn’t own the underlying debt on the contracts being purchased. “I do believe that it’s appropriate, given their unique nature, to consider additional rules for credit-default swaps, and by additional, I mean additional to what we do for all swaps,” Gensler said.

- President Barack Obama’s $12.8 trillion commitment to stimulate credit markets will ensure economic recovery in the US outpaces Europe’s “anemic” revival, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS). A profit can be made from buying credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 investment-grade companies and selling default protection on the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, said Alberto Gallo, a credit strategist at Goldman. “US credit will outperform as Europe faces a deeper recession and more anemic recovery,” NY-based Gallo said.

- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said the prospect that policy makers will leave the benchmark U.S. interest rate near zero for the next several years is “not outside the realm of possibility.” “We have a very serious recession, we have a 9.4 percent unemployment rate,” and inflation possibly falling over time below the Fed’s preferred level, she told reporters yesterday after a speech to the Commonwealth Club of California in San Francisco. Given the recession’s severity, “we should want to do more. If we were not at zero, we would be lowering the funds rate.”

- U.S. mortgage applications fell last week by the most since February, defying efforts by President Barack Obama’s administration to revive the housing market. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase a home or refinance a loan dropped 19 percent to 444.8 in the week ended June 26 from 548.2 the prior week. The group’s refinancing gauge declined 30 percent to the lowest in seven months, while the index of purchases fell 4.5 percent.

- Companies in the U.S. cut more jobs than forecast in June, according to a private report today, showing the labor market will be slow to improve even as other parts of the economy indicate the recession is abating.

- Ford Motor Co.(F) and Nissan Motor Co. reported June U.S. sales that were better than estimates, as analysts predicted a stabilizing U.S. economy may have led the auto industry to its strongest month this year. Deliveries at Ford slid 11 percent from a year earlier, according to a statement today from the Dearborn, Michigan-based company. Nissan posted a 23 percent decline. Toyota Motor Corp. said its sales fell 32 percent. Chrysler Group LLC reported a 42 percent drop after it ended most sales to fleet customers.

- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will begin refinancing mortgages with loan-to-value ratios of as much as 125 percent as the Obama administration seeks to boost participation in its anti-foreclosure programs.

- Mir Hossein Mousavi, the main challenger in the June 12 presidential election, said Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government lacks “political legitimacy” for the majority of Iranians. Former President Mohammad Khatami said the country faces a “velvet coup against the people.”

Wall Street Journal:

- Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank ranked as the best prime brokerages of 2008 in a closely followed survey due out this week, a copy of which was reviewed by Dow Jones Newswires. The annual survey of hedge funds, conducted by Global Custodian magazine, had about 25% fewer respondents than last year -- not surprising considering the global economic meltdown and shrinking of the hedge-fund industry.

- Consumers looking for a flat-screen TV deal these days should head straight to one place: the plasma-TV aisle.

- China is expected to ban imports of U.S. chicken in coming days, a move likely to deliver a blow to the struggling American chicken industry and escalate trade tensions between the two nations.

NY Times:

- Car sales in the United States are in a funk. Even with a strong June, the current annualized rate of about 10 million vehicles sold will not be enough to compensate for scrapped cars and population growth. Yet the best investment play on an American recovery may not be a car company or parts maker. Instead, it may be Sirius XM, the company that operates the subscription satellite radio service.

- Bank Woes Deepening in Europe.

MarketWatch:
- Macy's may not tell Gimbels, goes the old adage, but Citigroup analysts aren't shy about recommending a rival's shares: They told clients Wednesday that Bank of America's stock is the best bank buy going.

NY Post:

- Ruth Madoff is in the clear -- for now. Ruth will not be prosecuted for the massive Ponzi scheme that won her husband Bernard Madoff a 150-year prison sentence, sources told The Post yesterday.

AppleInsider:

- An aggressive back-to-school promotion and a more affordably-priced overhaul to Apple's MacBook Pro notebook line are boosting Apple's personal computer shipments to levels not seen since last October, shortly before the economic climate caught up with the Mac maker in earnest. Huberty also provided a graph based on weekly data from market research firm NPD that points to a "steady acceleration of Mac shipments over the last few weeks" since the MacBook Pro line saw its refresh. But even prior to that launch, "Apple began to outperform the broader commercial PC segment -- with commercial Mac shipments up 25% month-over-month in May versus market growth of just 1%," she wrote.

Washington Times:

- When House Democratic leaders were rounding up votes Friday for the massive climate-change bill, they paid special attention to their colleagues from Ohio who remained stubbornly undecided. They finally secured the vote of one Ohioan, veteran Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Toledo, the old-fashioned way. They gave her what she wanted - a new federal power authority, similar to Washington state's Bonneville Power Administration, stocked with up to $3.5 billion in taxpayer money available for lending to renewable energy and economic development projects in Ohio and other Midwestern states. House Energy and Commerce Chairman Henry A. Waxman, California Democrat, included the Kaptur project in a 310-page amendment to the legislation unveiled at 3 a.m. Friday, just hours before the bill was to be debated on the House floor. The amendment was packed with other vote-getting provisions, both large and small, that had been sought by dozens of wavering Democrats. The wheeling and dealing proved successful. Mr. Waxman and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, California Democrat, backed by the personal lobbying of President Obama, won over enough lawmakers to pass the bill narrowly Friday evening, 219-212.

- Rep. John Conyers Jr. reversed his opposition to a controversial hazardous waste project in his district, writing a letter of support to the federal government with the help of his wife, former Detroit City Council member Monica Conyers, whose aide later linked her to receiving money from the contractor in the project. The letter, sent in July 2007, was written in support of permit transfers for a hazardous waste injection well project in the city of Romulus, Mich., which was operated by a company with ties to Mrs. Conyers, who has pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit bribery in a federal investigation unrelated to the hazardous waste project. In his letter to the Environmental Protection Agency, the Michigan Democrat, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, said many things had changed in favor of the project since he stood in opposition along with fellow Michigan congressman, Rep. John D. Dingell, in 2003.

- Republican lawmakers, coming off a loss Friday in their attempt to block passage of a massive climate bill, have seized on a global warming memo they say was suppressed by the Obama administration. The memo, drafted by two environmental economists, is highly critical of the science behind an Environmental Protection Agency memo that found carbon dioxide to be a greenhouse gas. Sen. James M. Inhofe of Oklahoma, the ranking Republican on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, and Sen. John Barrasso, Wyoming Republican, said the memo shows that the EPA did not have accurate information when it completed its finding.

Reuters:
- China has asked to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at next week's Group of Eight summit in Italy and the issue could be referred to briefly in the summit statement, G8 sources said on Wednesday. One G8 source who was involved in the negotiations said China made the request during preparatory talks about a joint statement to be issued on the second day of the summit in L'Aquila by the G8 plus the G5 (Brazil, India, China, Mexico and South Africa) and also Egypt. This forum, the so-called "G14", meets on July 9 to discuss the financial crisis, trade and climate change and for the first time a G8 summit will also produce a joint G14 statement.

- The Baltic Exchange said on Wednesday it had changed the way its chief sea freight index .BADI was calculated in a move aimed at boosting freight derivatives trading. The daily index, which gauges the cost of shipping resources including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertilizer, is compiled from data provided by members of the exchange from international ship broking companies.

- Oil fell on Wednesday after government data showed a build in U.S. gasoline inventories ahead of the Independence Day holiday, traditionally the peak of the summer driving season. Gasoline stockpiles in the world's top consumer rose by 2.3 million barrels last week, above analysts forecasts, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed. "The fact that gasoline stocks are up 2.3 million barrels ahead of the Fourth of July weekend is huge," said Stephen Schork, editor of The Schork Report, adding, "Demand is low." Total U.S. product demand fell 5.8 percent over the four weeks to June 26 compared to year-ago levels, according to the EIA report. Further pressure on crude came after a Reuters survey showed OPEC output rose in June, with members' compliance with agreed cuts at 72 percent last month, a fall from 75 percent in May.

- General Motors Corp n Wednesday reported a 34 percent drop in monthly U.S. sales or June, its first sales results since it filed for bankruptcy n a restructuring funded by the Obama administration.

DigiTimes:

- The supply of Intel's(INTC) entry-level G31 IGP chipset, which currently accounts for 50% in Intel's total shipments to the channel, has fallen far short of demand, according to sources at motherboard makers.

Lusa:

- Macau’s casino revenue fell 17% in June from a year earlier, citing data from casino operators. For the first six months of this year, revenue declined 12% from the year-earlier period.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Mid-cap Growth (+.42%)

Sector Underperformers:
Education (-2.08%), Biotech (-.47%) and Banks (-.25%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
ADY, FSLR, MAR, HOT, MYGN, ACOR, LEAP, CBST, BOOM and ALXN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) USU 2) KFT 3) SLM 4) OSK 5) NDAQ

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Small-cap Value (+2.53%)

Sector Outperformers:
Airlines (+3.05%), Networking (+2.64%) and Restaurants (+2.44%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
AIG, BLKB, KTC, FCX, BBL, E, PTR, IBKC, AMAG, FELE, FUQI, PRAA, SCHN, VECO, PWRD, RDEA, STEC, WERN, PLCE, CRMT, BIIB, CYOU, ADTN, HURN, ZRAN, CENT, UFCS, TPL, SNX, OSK, EVY, LNN, UNF, SNY, SWM, DTG, WHI, STZ, AXE, FCN and GIS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) KLAC 2) NVLS 3) SLE 4) OSK 5) UTX

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Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Steel prices in the U.S. fell 3.1 percent in June, the 11th straight monthly decline, as a global recession prevents steelmakers from charging more for their products. The average price of hot-rolled steel sheet, the benchmark product used in cars and appliances, dropped to $380 a ton from $392 in May, Purchasing Magazine said today in a monthly update. Cold-rolled sheet slipped 2.1 percent to $467 a ton. Hot-rolled steel prices have plunged 64 percent from a record $1,068 a ton in July as the slowing global economy reduced demand for automobiles, appliances and homes. “The steel market continues to be sluggish, despite protestations by some analysts that recovery has begun,” the magazine said. Prices for hot-rolled steel were the lowest in June since the spot-market price averaged $350 in January 2004, according to data published last month by the trade magazine. “U.S. end-user purchasing is expected to remain weak for remainder of 2009,” the magazine said. “The steel makers admit very little marketplace impact from the government’s fiscal stimulus package is expected this year.”

- Sentiment among Japan’s largest manufacturers rose less than economists estimated in June, signaling the economy may be slow to recover from its deepest postwar recession. An index of confidence among large makers of electronics, cars and other products climbed to minus 48 from a record minus 58 in March, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey showed today in Tokyo. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted minus 43.

- The U.S. Treasury Department is set to name eight to 10 asset managers for the Public-Private Investment Program as soon as this week, a person familiar with the matter said today. Once the asset managers have signed deals with Treasury, they each will be expected to raise at least $500 million of private capital within 12 weeks, according to Treasury program documents. Pacific Investment Management Co. and BlackRock Inc. have been among the leading candidates for the slots. Other companies that have said they applied include Bank of New York Mellon Corp.’s Boston-based Standish bond unit; Atlanta-based Invesco Ltd. and its affiliate, WL Ross & Co.; Baltimore’s Legg Mason Inc.; and TCW Group Inc. in Los Angeles.

Wall Street Journal:

- Some of the states worst hit by the recession are getting far less federal economic-stimulus money per person than states faring better. Nevada, where unemployment stood at about 10% when the plan was passed, is getting $541 for each resident from the stimulus money allocated so far, a Wall Street Journal analysis found. Wyoming, where the 3.9% jobless rate was the lowest in the country in February, is getting $1,074 per person. Florida, North Carolina and Oregon are among the other states with relatively low per-capita payouts, despite battling double-digit unemployment. North Dakota and South Dakota, meanwhile, are also receiving large quantities of stimulus money relative to their small populations -- even while unemployment remains about half the national average.

- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on Thursday is expected to propose tough new guidelines for private-equity investors seeking to buy failed banks, people familiar with the matter said. The issue is a tricky one for the FDIC. It wants to open the door for more types of investors to buy failed banks, reducing the potential cost to the agency of bank collapses. At the same time, it wants to prevent largely unregulated private-equity firms from acting too aggressively. The proposal is expected to deter private equity investors from buying and flipping failed banks and could include a mandatory investment period. The proposal is also expected to require private-equity investors to hold higher capital reserves than traditional banks would be required to hold. The proposal could require private equity investors that own several banks to offer some sort of cross-guarantee, so that one bank owned by the investors might have to serve as a source of strength to the other banks. And there could be another requirement that the private-equity investors remain a behind-the-scenes source of capital, beyond their initial investment. It's unclear how private equity investors will react to the proposal, in part because the full details haven't been released. Some investors said overly stringent regulations could kill private-equity interest.

- Gannett Co.(GCI), the largest U.S. newspaper publisher by daily circulation, will cut more than 1,000 jobs in response to continuing revenue declines, according to a person familiar with the company's thinking. The cuts will come from the U.S. Community Publishing division, which consists of Gannett's more than 80 local dailies, the person said.

- On top of the lumps taken from the credit crisis, stock-market declines and the recession, hedge-fund and private-equity firms now have a real-estate problem. After loading up on lavish office space near the top of the market, some firms are trying to sublease what they don't need for as much as 30% less than their rental rate. New York hedge-fund firm Trafelet & Co. and Duff Capital Advisors, a Greenwich, Conn., hedge-fund firm started last year, have paid their landlords to take back office space. It is a classic buy-high, sell-low squeeze with no end in sight. In midtown Manhattan, a record 8.9 million square feet of high-quality, class "A" office space -- equivalent to more than three Empire State Buildings -- is available for sublet, according to brokerage Jones Lang LaSalle.

- Obama administration officials will announce rules Wednesday for handing out $7.2 billion in broadband stimulus funds, but some companies already are raising concerns about how long it could take to award the money. Officials are expected to detail how they plan to distribute $4.7 billion in broadband money from the Commerce Department in grants and $2.5 billion from the Agriculture Department in grants or loans. Commerce Department officials will still be doling out the first of three rounds of broadband grants in December. Such a delay, business groups and some states say, could push back construction of some projects in northern states to next summer or 2011.

- The odors, respiratory complaints and corrosion blamed on drywall from China used in American homes may have been caused by the failure to remove sulfur and other contaminants from synthetic gypsum, some Chinese experts in building materials say. The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission in recent months has received more than 550 reports from people in 19 states and the District of Columbia involving odors, health symptoms and corrosion problems they blame on imported Chinese drywall.

- The U.S. International Trade Commission recommended imposing punitive duties of as much as 55% on low-cost Chinese tire imports because they are disrupting the U.S. market, in a move that could sharply increase costs for consumers.

NY Times:

- The trend of cable news viewers moving away from CNN continued in the second quarter of 2009 with MSNBC beating CNN in weeknights for the first time ever for a full quarter of a year. Neither was anywhere near the Fox News Channel of course, which, as it has all year, posted enormous audience gains in the second quarter. On weeknights in prime time, Fox averaged 2.5 million viewers for the quarter, while MSNBC averaged 954,000 and CNN had 941,000. The real growth among the news networks continues to be posted by Fox, which completed the best 6-month period in its history. For the second quarter Fox News Channel was up 50 per cent from the previous year. Mr. O’Reilly was up 31 per cent. Glenn Beck, though not in prime time, improved his time period by 110 per cent.

- YouTube confirmed on Tuesday that Steve Chen, a co-founder and most recently YouTube’s chief technology officer, was no longer working at the company. Mr. Chen left some time ago to work on unspecified engineering projects at its parent, Google.

IBD:

- Taleo Corp. (TLEO) markets software that helps customers recruit and retain employees. But right now it's winning business because it's not slashing its own payroll, CEO Michael Gregoire says.

Politico:

- Republican Norm Coleman has conceded to Democrat Al Franken in the Minnesota Senate race, ending one of the longest Senate races in American history and clearing the way for Democrats to hold a 60-seat supermajority in the Senate.

Rasmussen:

- Americans have mixed feelings about the historic climate change bill that passed the House on Friday, but 42% say it will hurt the U.S. economy. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that just 19% believe the climate change bill passed by the House on Friday will help the economy. Fifteen percent (15%) say it will have no impact, and 24% are not sure. A majority of both Republicans (56%) and adults not affiliated with either major political party (52%) think the bill will hurt the economy. Among Democrats, however, 30% say it will help the economy, 23% that it will hurt and 21% say it will have no impact.

Washington Post:

- U.S. securities regulators are considering changing how companies are required to disclose stock options awarded to executives, people familiar with the Securities and Exchange Commission's thinking told Reuters on Tuesday. At an SEC meeting on Wednesday, the commissioners also will propose giving investors a greater voice in setting executive pay at companies that were given taxpayer funds under the U.S. government's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Among the possible changes is a revision to how companies value equity awards in the "summary compensation table" for top executives that they file with the commission each year. The SEC is considering requiring companies to include the estimated value for stock options granted during the year, the people said.

CommonDreams.Org:

- General Electric(GE), the world's largest industrial company, has quietly become the biggest beneficiary of one of the government's key rescue programs for banks. At the same time, GE has avoided many of the restrictions facing other financial giants getting help from the government. The company did not initially qualify for the program, under which the government sought to unfreeze credit markets by guaranteeing debt sold by banking firms. But regulators soon loosened the eligibility requirements, in part because of behind-the-scenes appeals from GE. As a result, GE has joined major banks collectively saving billions of dollars by raising money for their operations at lower interest rates.

TheDeal.com:

- Registering venture capital firms -- along with hedge funds and private equity firms -- with the Securities and Exchange Commission, as President Obama's administration plans to do, would be "very burdensome" for small VC firms, said Michael Stark, co-founder and general partner at Crosslink Capital. "I think registering with the SEC would kill a three-partner VC firm," said Stark. The National Venture Capital Association is actively lobbying the Obama administration to not tarnish the VC industry with the same brush as leverage-backed asset classes, such as hedge funds, as it embarks on a sweeping overhaul of financial regulations. "There are enough smart people in the Obama administration to figure out the differences between asset classes," Stark concluded confidently.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (GLW), target $20.50.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index unch..
S&P 500 futures -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

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Earnings of Note
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Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

- The ADP Employment Change for June is estimated to shrink to -395K versus -532K in May.

10:00 am EST

- ISM Manufacturing for June is estimated to rise to 44.6 versus 42.8 in May.

- ISM Prices Paid for June is estimated to rise to 47.0 versus 43.5 in May.

- Construction Spending for May is estimated to fall .6% versus a .8% gain April.

- Pending Home Sales for May are estimated unch. versus a 6.7% gain in April.

10:30 am EST

- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,000,000 barrels versus a -3,868,000 barrel decrease the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +2,000,000 barrels versus a +3,871,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are expected to rise by +1,500,000 barrels versus a +2,077,000 barrel increase the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.05% versus a +1.16% gain the prior week.

Afternoon:

- Total Vehicle Sales for June are estimated at 9.8M versus 9.9M in May.

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Evans speaking, weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the Challenger Job Cuts report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by insurance and commodity shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower, Weighed Down by Hospital, Commodity, Airline and Financial Shares

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