Thursday, February 28, 2019

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:    
  • Stocks in Asia Rise as Yen Weakness Buoys Japan. Stocks in Asia notched up gains early Friday, with Japanese shares helped by overnight weakness in the yen. U.S. shares earlier edged lower amid a mixed set of economic signals. Treasury yields held on to gains. Japanese equities posted the bulk of gains ahead of the open in Hong Kong and China, where focus will be on MSCI Inc.’s announcement that it will boost the weight of domestic so-called A shares in its global benchmarks. The S&P 500 Index slipped as lingering concerns over trade and geopolitical risks dented sentiment, despite a report showing the U.S. economy cooled less than expected last quarter.“Stocks are pretty close to fair value,” Scott Wren, a senior global strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “Now the story is the global growth concern and I would argue that is what the market is most worried about.” Japan’s Topix index rose 0.5 percent as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were flat after the underlying gauge fell 0.3 percent Thursday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.5 percent.
Wall St. Journal:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.0 +.25 basis point
  • China Sovereign CDS 49.5 -.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.20 -.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.09%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (EBIX)/.96
  • (FL)/1.40
  • (SNH)/.34
  • (STRA)/1.50
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3%.
  • Personal Spending for Dec. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.3% gain in Nov.
  • PCE Core MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.
10:00 am EST
  • ISM Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to fall to 55.7 versus 56.6 in Jan.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Feb. is estimated to rise to 51.8 versus 49.6 in Jan.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Caxin China PMI report, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI report and the (ETN) investor conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Concerns, Earnings Outlooks, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Commodity Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.86 +1.09%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.73 +.45%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.28 -1.19%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.34 +.17%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +6.06%
  • Total Put/Call .91 unch.
  • NYSE Arms 1.23 +53.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.16 +.37%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 505.0 -.75%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.89 +.29%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 257.0 -6.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.07 -.67%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 163.56 +.67%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 158.57 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.75 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.75 -2.26 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.22 -.27%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.43% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 20.25 +1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 81.83 USD/Metric Tonne +.53%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.80 +3.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -58.80 +.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.1 -3.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.94 unch.
  • 1.7% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 1.6% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +100 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/industrial/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Education +.9% 2) Telecom +.8% 3) Drugs +.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • HZNP, WIFI, WTW, WBC, GTN, ALDR, JD, COLL, CVNA, TWNK, SVMK, ICPT, CRC, AMCX, HAIN, MNST, GKOS, FOE, BID, TNDM, TPC, DY, NSTG, LUV, SQ and KHC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) YINN 2) LUV 3) CELG 4) VMC 5) HPQ
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MNST 2) JCP 3) JD 4) NOMD 5) TRS
Charts:

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.75 -.5 basis point
  • China Sovereign CDS 49.75 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.38 -.06%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.74%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (ABB)/.33
  • (BUD)/.96
  • (CARS)/.57
  • (FSS)/.31
  • (FRO)/.18
  • (ICPT)/-2.49
  • (JCP)/.18
  • (PRTY)/1.09
  • (PDCO)/.38
  • (BID)/1.48
  • (JD)/-.27
After the Close:
  • (DDD)/.07
  • (ALRM)/.24
  • (ADSK)/.42
  • (DELL)/1.85
  • (GPS)/.69
  • (MAR)/1.40
  • (JWN)/1.42
  • (NTNX)/-.25
  • (SPLK)/.76
  • (SRCL)/.95
  • (VMW)/1.88
  • (WDAY)/.32
  • (ZS)/-.01
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 220K versus 216K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1737K versus 1725K prior 
  • Advance 4Q GDP QoQ is estimated to rise +2.2% versus a +3.4% gain in 3Q.
  • Advance 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a +3.5% gain in 3Q.
  • Advance 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.7% versus a +1.8% gain in 3Q.
  • Advance 4Q Core PCE QoQ is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a +1.6% gain in 3Q.
9:45 am EST
  • Chicago Purchasing Manager for February is estimated to rise to 57.5 versus 56.7 in January.
11:00 am EST
  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 6.0 versus 5.0 in January.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone CPI report, China Manufacturing PMI report, Japan Unemployment Rate/CPI reports, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Keefe Bruyette Woods Cards/Payments/Financial Tech symposium,  (CR) investor day, (WAT) investor day and the (PGR) 4Q Investor Event could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.