Thursday, February 14, 2019

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
  • Asian Stocks Set for Decline; Treasuries Advance. Asian stocks looked set to end the week with declines following a dip in U.S. equities as concern about the economy resurfaced and as investors weighed the outlook for trade developments. Treasuries climbed. Futures pointed to a lower start for shares in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. The S&P 500 Index fell after the worst drop for retail sales in nine years. That sent the 10-year Treasury yield down to 2.65 percent. Signs Congress would avert another government shutdown limited losses in U.S. shares until President Donald Trump said he intends to sign a government funding bill and at the same time declare a national emergency to get more money for a border wall. The S&P 500 Index fell 0.3 percent. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 0.7 percent in Singapore. Hang Seng futures dropped 0.5 percent. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent.    
Wall St. Journal:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.0 +.5 basis point
  • China Sovereign CDS 54.0 +.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.86 -.04%.
  • FTSE 100 futures unch.
  • S&P 500 futures -.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Before the Open:
  • (AXL)/.42
  • (DE)/1.77
  • (MCO)/1.68
  • (NWL)/.65
  • (ZEUS)/.17
  • (PEP)/1.50
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to rise to 7.0 versus 3.9 in Jan.
  • The Import Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -1.0% decline in Dec.
  • The Import Price Index Ex Petro MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
  • The Export Prices Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.6% decline in Dec.
9:15 am EST
  • Industrial Production MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
  • Capacity Utilization for Jan. is estimated at 78.7% versus 78.7% in Dec.
  • Manufacturing Production for Jan. is estimated unch. versus a +1.1% gain in Dec.
10:00 am EST
  • 4Q Mortgage Delinquencies/Foreclosures.
  • Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for Feb. is estimated to rise to 93.5 versus 91.2 in Jan.
4:00 pm EST
  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Dec.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China CPI report, Eurozone Trade Balance report, Govt funding deadline for agencies and the (HAS) investor update could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to strengthen into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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