Monday, October 31, 2022

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                                  
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:  
TheGatewayPundit.com:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 233.25 +10.0 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 126.75 +7.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.5 -.01%.  
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 46.2 +2.0%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.06 -2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.4 unch.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.25%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.26%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.38%  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (AGCO)/3.16
  • (BP)/.32
  • (ETN)/2.01
  • (LLY)/1.93
  • (FOXA)/1.14
  • (IT)/1.87
  • (IDXX)/2.04
  • (LEA)/2.13
  • (LGIH)/3.37
  • (LPX)/1.51
  • (MPC)/7.03
  • (TAP)/1.35
  • (MYGN)/-.08
  • (NEM)/.34
  • (PFE)/1.40
  • (PSX)/5.03
  • (PBI)/.02
  • (RGEN)/.68
  • (SEE)/.90
  • (SPG)/2.92
  • (SYY)/.99
  • (UBER)/.06
  • (WAT)/2.58
After the Close:
  • (AMD)/.72
  • (ABNB)/1.55
  • (AIG)/.52
  • (ANDE)/.37
  • (CZR)/.16
  • (CAKE)/.30
  • (CHK)/4.48
  • (CRUS)/1.44
  • (CLX)/.78
  • (DVN)/2.13
  • (EA)/1.35
  • (HRB)/-1.09
  • (MTCH)/.59
  • (MCK)/6.09
  • (MSTR)/1.03
  • (MDLZ)/.69
  • (PRU)/2.02
  • (YUMC)/.30
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -.6% versus a -.7% decline in Aug.
  • ISM Manufacturing for Oct. is estimated to fall to 50.0 versus 50.9 in Sept.
  • ISM Prices Paid is estimated to rise to 53.0 versus 51.7 in Sept.
Afternoon:
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Oct. is estimated to rise to 14.5M versus 13.49M in Sept.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The RBA rate decision, weekly US retail sales reports and the (BA) investor day could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, China Hard-Landing Worries, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.2 +1.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .91%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 46.6 +2.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 151.62 -.17%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.7 -1.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 53.0 +.08% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 +6.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .87 -7.5%
  • NYSE Arms .87 -19.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 89.70 +1.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 356.72 +.94%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 457.0 +2.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 123.4 +1.3% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 333.64 +.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 216.0 basis points +9.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 231.40 +4.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 294.77 +3.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.06 +.35%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 37.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 39.5 basis points +2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -55.0 basis points -3.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  170.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 130.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.09 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.54 -.20%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.06% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -44.25 basis points (2s/10s) -4.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 75.25 USD/Metric Tonne -2.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 122.0 euros/megawatt-hour +12.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.1 -6.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.2 +9.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.2 -1.1 points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 232.30 -.57:  Growth Rate +13.1% -1.4 percentage points, P/E 16.7 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.03 +4.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.07% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.16% unch.: CPI YoY +8.11% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 49.5%(+6.1 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 47.1%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
US Covid-19:
  • 77 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.4%(+0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -86.0%(-1.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -42 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure:  50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders -1.9% 2) Semis -1.6% 3) Internet -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • DBRG, RRX, CHD, TTWO, ABMD, LSCC, SON, ALRM, HSIC, ATHM, FOLD, IMAX, GTN, SMG, GOOS, PBR, WOLF, NXST, META, ABNA, PBR/A, ON, NWL, DASH and GPN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XLRE 2) AFL 3) EWZ 4) FSLR 5) EWJ
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TSP 2) YMAB 3) QNGY 4) TIL 5) NWL
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gambling +3.1% 2) Oil Service +2.3% 3) Airlines +1.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • WYNN, RES, GTLS, ARKO, DVA, NUVL, INSP and ALGN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) WM 2) HBI 3) GSAT 4) MJ 5) XME
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) WYNN 2) ATNM 3) HOTH 4) LXU 5) GME

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +4.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
  • 70.8% of Issues Advancing, 25.1% Declining
  • 85 New 52-Week Highs, 109 New Lows
  • 35.6%(-.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 62.0 +2.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 45.6 +3.2%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,859.4 -.45%
  • Vix 26.4 +2.4%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -12.8%
  • TRIN/Arms .84 -20.8% 

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:           
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 223.25 +5.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 119.25 +2.75 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.55 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 47.0 +3.0%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.07 -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.5 +.8%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.61%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.20%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.39%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (AMG)/3.91
  • (CNA)/.59
  • (GPN)/2.48
  • (ON)/1.31
  • (XPO)/1.35
After the Close:
  • (AFL)/1.21
  • (ANET)/1.05
  • (CAR)/14.64
  • (BCC)/4.13
  • (FLS)/.24
  • (GT)/.55
  • (HLF)/.80
  • (LSCC)/.44
  • (NXPI)/3.66
  • (PSMT)/.63
  • (RMBS)/.41
  • (SBAC)/2.60
  • (SYK)/2.23
  • (TREX)/.14
  • (VNO)/.73
  • (WMB)/.43
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for Oct. is estimated to rise to 47.3 versus 45.7 in Sept.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for Oct. is estimated to fall to -18.4 versus -17.2 in Sept.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Services PMI report, (WOLF) Investor Day and the (CRTO) investor day could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by energy and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.