Thursday, November 30, 2017

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Korea's Inflation Slips to 1-Year Low While GDP Strengthens. (video) South Korea’s inflation unexpectedly slowed to a one-year low as the government lowered city gas charges and vegetable prices stabilized on higher farm output. Economic growth was slightly stronger than the central bank’s initial estimate and exports expanded close to 10 percent.
  • Asia Stocks Pare Gains as U.S. Equity Futures Drop. (video) Japanese shares gave up an advance that briefly helped the Nikkei 225 Stock Average reclaim a 25-year high reached in November. Shares rose in Australia and fell in Hong Kong. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed past 24,000 after John McCain backed the Senate tax bill, and the S&P 500 Index capped its longest monthly winning streak since 2007 as technology stocks rebounded. Treasuries held a slide, with the 10-year yield breaking above 2.4 percent. The dollar came under pressure after the U.S. Senate suspended votes on the bill until Friday as it emerged a key compromise to help its passage collapsed. The Topix index was down 0.2 percent as of 10:50 a.m. in Tokyo and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.1 percent after earlier jumping as much as 1.2 percent to touch the highest since 1992. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.4 percent. The Kospi index was down 0.1 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.3 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.4 percent.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.25 +.5 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.75 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.32 +.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.33%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.40%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

  • (AMWD)/1.22
  • (BIG)/.04
  • (GCO)/1.12
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • ISM Manufacturing for November is estimated to fall to 58.3 versus 58.7 in October. 
  • ISM Prices Paid for November is estimated to fall to 67.0 versus 68.5 in October.
  • Construction Spending for October is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in September.
Afternoon:
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for November are estimated to fall to 17.5M versus 18.0M in October.
Upcoming Splits
  • (CGNX) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Senate vote on tax reform, Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Kaplan speaking, China Manufacturing PMI report and the Eurozone GDP report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by transport and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Tax Reform Hopes, Economic Optimism, Yen Weakness, Energy/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.0 +2.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.48 +.88%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.98 +.38%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation n/a
  • ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 +32.5%
  • Total Put/Call .76 +8.57%
  • NYSE Arms .97 +64.98%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.28 -1.12%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 386.0 -.86%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 46.84 +1.05%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.49 -.57%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.77 -1.33%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 181.52 -.31%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.60 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -47.25 +1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.24 -.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.26% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 62.75 +1.25 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $68.13/Metric Tonne +.31%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 59.40 +.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 71.30 -10.6 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.60 -8.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 31 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 21 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +204 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +77 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +26 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Steel -.8% 2) Gold & Silver -.5% 3) REITs -.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CPL, UVSP, SGH, GTN, AXTA, JNPR, SMTC, NUAN, AZUL, BOX, OSTK, STMP, MOMO, JNPR and BKE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AET 2) HCA 3) OCN 4) SFM 5) S
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CATO 2) BKE 3) GNC 4) PFS 5) FFIC
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.0%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Road & Rail +2.4% 2) Oil Service +2.1% 3) Healthcare Providers +1.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TV, TLYS, HOME, TITN, JACK, AET, ASMB, EEQ, SYRS, XNET, MIK, KR, SEP, SCMP, ACRS, HCA, SOXX, RVNC, BEAT, ENB, NTG, FIVE, TDOC, XOMA, ZUMZ, EEP, LB, DERM, SNPS, SHLX, LUV, CVS, COST, GEL, KYN and GS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) AET 2) FDX 3) XLB 4) AXP 5) SMH
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) FDX 2) DLPH 3) KR 4) COST 5) CVS
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • China Factory Gauge Unexpectedly Rises as Global Demand Firms Up. The manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 51.8 in November, compared with the 51.4 forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists and 51.6 the previous month. The non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.8 from 54.3 in October, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.
  • Asia Stocks to Open Mixed as Tech Rout Roils U.S. Technology shares in the U.S. tumbled, while the S&P 500 Index ended the day flat, amid signs of a rotation away from the year’s leaders into financial stocks as tax legislation proceeded through the Senate. Futures on equity gauges in Japan were flat, while Hong Kong contracts were down. Australian shares opened lower with banks declining after the government announced an inquiry into the industry. Treasuries dropped after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen called economic growth “increasingly broad based.” Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average were flat, while contracts on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 0.7 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 0.7 percent. The nation’s big four banks were the main drag on the benchmark after Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said he would hold a wide-ranging public inquiry into the banks.
  • OPEC and Russia Ready to Extend Oil-Supply Cuts Until End-2018. OPEC and Russia are ready to extend their oil production cuts until the end of next year to ensure global stockpiles keep falling and prices maintain recent gains. All OPEC members and Russia, the biggest producer outside the group to join the deal, agree the cuts should last until the end of 2018, according to delegates in Vienna to attend Thursday’s meeting. On Wednesday, a committee charged with overseeing the agreement on behalf of the whole group also recommended extending until the end of next year, two delegates said.
  • Flattening Curve Aside, Bonds Haven't Been This Calm Since 1979. For all the hullabaloo around the flattening U.S. yield curve in November, the 10-year yield is still on track for its least turbulent month in almost four decades. The note’s yield, which serves as a benchmark for everything from U.S. mortgages to borrowing costs for municipalities, fell in November to as low as 2.3 percent and topped out at 2.41 percent. That’s the narrowest range since 1979. Even with volatility largely suppressed, the rate has swung about 32 basis points on average every month over the past five years. 
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
Business Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.% to +.% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.75 - basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.75 -. basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.32 -.%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

  • (BKS)/-.26
  • (DCI)/.42
  • (KR)/.40
  • (MIK)/.43
  • (PERY)/.22
  • (SHLD)/-4.46
  • (TITN)/.08
  • (TD)/1.38
  • (AMBA)/.67
  • (ULTA)/1.66
  • (VMW)/1.28
  • (ZUMZ)/.48
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 240K versus 239K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1890K versus 1904K prior.
  • Personal Income for October is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in September.
  • Personal Spending for October is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.0% gain in September.
  • The PCE Core MoM for October is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in September.
9:45 am EST
  • The Chicago Purchasing Manager for November is estimated to fall to 63.0 versus 66.2 in October.
Upcoming Splits
  • (CGNX) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Senate vote on tax reform, Fed's Quarles speaking, Fed's Kaplan speaking, OPEC meeting, Japan Jobless Rate/CPI reports, China Manufacturing PMI report, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, French GDP report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (ZUMZ)/(LB)/(BKE) monthly sales reports, Goldman Sachs Automotive Conference, (SKX) investor meeting and the (GM) self-driving future event could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the close, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.