Sunday, November 19, 2017

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
  • Japan’s Best Export Performance Since 2008 Crisis Rolls On. Improving global demand has fueled strong growth in Japan’s exports throughout the year, with new smartphones creating demand for parts and machinery in recent months. In the nine months through September, Japan exported 57 trillion yen worth of goods, the most over that period in any year since 2008. This has helped drive Japan’s economy to seven straight quarterly expansions, while investors expecting growing earnings have pushed stock prices to multi-year highs. Exports to China, Japan’s largest trading partner, rose 26 percent from a year earlier. Those to the U.S. rose 7.1 percent. Shipments to the EU climbed 15.8 percent.
  • China's Quest for Clean Air Is Shaking Up Industry and Inflation. The great Chinese environmental cleanup, now in full swing, is shifting the corporate landscape in unexpected ways and even stoking inflationary pressure that may soon be felt in supply chains worldwide. As President Xi Jinping’s government intensifies the fight against the country’s world-class pollution problem, companies are scrambling to adapt to tighter regulation while investing in cleaner energy. In industries from steel to textiles and consumer goods, the resulting shakeout has left the survivors with far more pricing power. That in turn is reinforcing the already-resurgent factory prices that contribute to global inflation.
  • Singapore Growth Could Top 3% in 2017, Prime Minister Lee Says. Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong says his country is expected to exceed expectations this year by recording economic growth above 3 percent. Addressing his People’s Action Party’s 2017 convention on Sunday, Lee said Singapore was benefiting from an improved world economy, but would have to press on with plans to restructure and upgrade the economy to sustain growth.
  • Euro Drops as German Talks Fail; Asian Stocks Slip. The euro declined after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s push to form a coalition government collapsed. Asian stocks resumed last week’s slide in early trading Monday amid signs of fatigue following a stellar year for the region’s equities. Shares fell in Japan and Sydney, while Hong Kong pointed to weaker start. The dollar advanced against most G-10 counterparts, giving it a better start this week after dropping the past two. U.S. equities dropped on Friday, when the gap between two- and 10-year Treasury yields hit the tightest level in a decade, adding to concern about the pace of future economic growth. Bitcoin climbed to a fresh high, topping $8,000. Japan’s Topix index lost 0.1 percent as of 9:26 a.m. in Tokyo. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average decreased 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index gained 0.2 percent.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.25 +.25 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 15.75 +25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.85 -.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.26%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.30%.

Earnings of Note
  • (BITA)/.29
  • (A)/.62
  • (CUB)/.27
  • (INTU)/.04
  • (PANW)/.68
  • (URBN)/.34
  • (VIPS)/.96
Economic Releases   
10:00 am EST
  • The Leading Index for October is estimated to rise +.7% versus a -.2% decline in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PPI report and the (AXGN) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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