Friday, January 31, 2025

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 6,036.5 -.7%


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 45,571.5 +.3%
  • NASDAQ 19,588.1 -1.7%
  • Russell 2000 2,280.5 -.8%
  • NYSE FANG+ 13,537.1 -1.8%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 199.9 -3.4%
  • Wilshire 5000 60,103.1 -1.0%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,121.2 -1.2%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,904.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 870.4 +2.0%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 257.2 -.2%
  • NYSE Technology 5,607.9 -.6%
  • Transports 16,298.2 -2.0%
  • Utilities 1,000.4 -1.3%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 124.60 +1.4%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.8 -.4%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 218.3 +.04%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 117.17 +.33%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 540,168 +.43%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.0 +64.3%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 319 -81
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -31.9 -1.7%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 298,847 -2.4%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,867,000 -1.6%
  • Total Put/Call .83 +.78%
  • OEX Put/Call .95 -1.1%
  • ISE Sentiment 141.0 -32.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.20 +12.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.4 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.79 +7.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.5 +10.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .37 -21.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 12.8 +3.5%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.3 +4.4%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.4 +3.4%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 21,110.6 +4.4%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  68.3 -17.8
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.873 Trillion -.44%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$5.534 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 41.0 -5.5%
  • AAII % Bears 34.0 +15.7%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 51.0 (NEUTRAL) unch.
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 306.4 -1.0%
  • Crude Oil 72.5/bbl. -2.4%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 203.7 -.8%
  • Natural Gas 3.05 -23.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 52.2 euros/megawatt-hour +7.0%
  • Heating Oil 248.5 -.57% 
  • Newcastle Coal 116.9 (1,000/metric ton) -3.4%
  • Gold 2,797.0 +1.1%
  • Silver 31.3 +2.3%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 449.40 -1.1%
  • Copper 426.0 -1.1%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 341.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.87%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
  • CME Lumber  595.0 +5.3%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,487.0 +.6%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 263.5 USD/Short Ton +3.3%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +2.89% -10.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.3% +2.5 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.82 +1.1%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 229.7 +43.2%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(179 of 500 reporting) +7.4% -9.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.87 +.31:  Growth Rate +16.0% +.7 percentage point, P/E 22.1 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.12% -16.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +17.2% -80.4 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 401.37 +2.38: Growth Rate +29.8% +2.2 percentage points, P/E 33.6 -1.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.4 +2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -.6 +2.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.7 -5.6 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 18.0%(-9.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 82.0%(+9.6 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 3/19
  • US Dollar Index 108.4 +.92%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,745.5 -.2%
  • Bitcoin/USD 102,147.0 -2.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.7 -1.7%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 33.25 -1.75 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.55% -7.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.786 Trillion -.21%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.833 Billion +.75%
  • Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $.213 Billion -13.8%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.9 -.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 211.0 +.9%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 +1.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.6 -.3%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.5 +1.1%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 178.9 +1.0%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 84.7 -2.3%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.5 -.08%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.93 -.39%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 112.71 +2.1%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +4.0% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.5% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.5% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.2% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.52% -31.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.85% +1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.33% +10.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 5.0 basis points +1.75 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.5 +.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.0 +.75 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 48.20 +.4%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 180.0 +1.4
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 175.0 +10.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.5 +.2%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 141.9 -1.3%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 159.64 +2.2%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 135.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 608.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .45 +3.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +3.9% +20.0 basis points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,210.5B +4.6%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,500 -.5%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 47.7 -3.9%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.0% -2.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 220,000 -2.1%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.5% +30.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +10.0% +13.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $106.2M -24.0%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.11/gallon -.02/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 715.0 -8.1%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,364.2/40 ft Box -2.3%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,505.1 -3.4%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 -20.0%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 52.5 -16.5%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 265,672 -6.4%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,217,849 +24.2%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value -.1%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Small-Cap Growth -1.2%
Leading Sectors
  • Computer Services +9.3%
  • Education +7.3%
  • Social Media +5.1%
  • Restaurants +3.8%
  • Pharma +2.8%
Lagging Sectors
  • Computer Hardware -4.0%
  • Networking -4.0%
  • Oil Service -4.3%
  • Semis -5.2%
  • Construction -7.6%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (34)
  • VIAV, TEAM, ASTS, RGTI, BKSY, RDW, CLS, BEN, HIMS, BEP, FLG, EMN, FLG, TFSL, MNDY, GTLB, VRTX, ABBV, TBBK, CI, PMT, IMNM, SKYW, ATGE, BKR, DAVE, ACMR, GLOB, VNOM, EA, FHB, JHG and FRME
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (24)
  • VST, LC, OMF, CVX, ALV, KGS, PAA, CL, GWW, IMO, BOOT, PPG, RMD, PFSI, GNTX, AESI, WBA, APPF, CALM, OLN, VSTS, DECK and BZH
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Tariff Implementation Jitters, Higher Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, Commodity/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -102 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +52 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my financial/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (IDXX)/2.40
  • (SAIA)/2.78
  • (TSN)/.90
After the Close: 
  • (ACM)/1.10
  • (BRBR)/.48
  • (CLX)/1.40
  • (EQR)/1.00
  • (FN)/2.49
  • (MTG)/.67
  • (NXPI)/3.16
  • (PLTR)/.11
  • (RMBS)/.58
Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

  • The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI final reading for Jan.

10:00 am EST

  • The ISM Manufacturing for Jan. is estimated to rise to 49.3 versus 49.2 in Dec.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Jan. 

Afternoon

  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Jan. is estimated to fall to 16.2M versus 16.8M in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bostic speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, Loan Officer Survey, OPEC meeting, (ROK) annual meeting and the (DGII) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, January 30, 2025

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @realDonaldTrump
  • @elonmusk
  • @WesternLensman
  • @nicksortor
  • @ColonelTowner
  • @ChronoScopeFilm
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • This is what Trump was referring to when he called out the FAA for their DEI hiring practices to hire people with “severe psychiatric and intellectual disabilities.” It's real. You can't make this up. (pic)
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @TheChiefNerd  
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @MidwesternDoc
  • @ColonelTowner
  • Let me tell you all why they want a SECRET vote for @TulsiGabbard. You ready? She will have oversight of the CIA. You know who blackmails everyone in the Senate? Who spied on all their computers? The CIA. Your senators are scared of the CIA and want to hide their cowardly, spineless actions from the actual citizens of the US.
  • @WarClandestine
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.25 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 55.75 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.6 +.2%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.8 +.54%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.11%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.20%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.50%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.