Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.33%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 98.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.0 euros/megawatt-hour +.05%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.5 +4.7 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -18.4 +1.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.7 +2.2 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(22 of 500 reporting) +20.2% -1.0 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.05 +.11: Growth Rate +14.4% unch., P/E 21.3 -.3
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 394.87 +.42: Growth Rate +25.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.7 -1.0
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 -12.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.49 unch.
- US Yield Curve 38.2 basis points (2s/10s) -1.8 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.73% +5.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.5% +.3 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 +2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 74.0% (+17.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 62.0%(+17.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -280 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -96 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +173 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
No comments:
Post a Comment