Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        
Fox News:  
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch              
Zero Hedge:
NY Post: 
Newsmax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com:  
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.25 -4.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 55.25 -3.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.65 -.04%. 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,007.0 +23.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.7 -3.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.07%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.49%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.48%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (DCI)/.55
  • (GIII)/1.79
  • (PDCO)/.50
  • (WEBR)/-.18
After the Close:
  • (AI)/-.29
  • (CRWD)/.10
  • (FIVE)/.29
  • (OKTA)/-.23
  • (PVH)2.06
  • (SMTC)/.72
  • (SNOW)/-.06
  • (SPLK)/-.53
  • (SNPS)/1.79
Economic Releases 
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for Nov. is estimated to fall to 525K versus 571K in Oct.
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.5% decline in Sept.
  • ISM Manufacturing for Nov. is estimated to rise to 61.2 versus 60.8 in Oct.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Nov. is estimated to fall to 85.5 versus 85.7 in Oct.
2:00 pm EST
  • US Fed's Beige Book release.
Afternoon:
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Nov. is estimated to rise to 13.4M versus 12.99M in Oct.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Treasury's Yellen speaking, Fed's Powell speaking, Eurozone PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Credit Suisse Industrials Conference and the (GM) fireside chat could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Virus Lockdown Worries, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Heavy 
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.4 +15.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,045.0 -460.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.98 -.14%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 +.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.1 n/a
  • ISE Sentiment Index 108.0  -15.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .93 +4.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.72 +42.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.8 +4.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 436.52 +2.9%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.49 +3.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.4 +1.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 213.91 +1.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.96 +.27%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 13.0 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -33.25 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  69.75 +2.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.75 -.42%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 100.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.95 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.5 -3.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.0 +15.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.3 +4.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 -5.0 basis points
  • 97.5%(unch.) chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 75.1%(-7.3 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 171 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +14/100K people
  • 32% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +2.0 percentage points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -136 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/transport/tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -2.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -3.6% 2) Airlines -3.4% 3) Oil Service -3.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • USAC, CARS, PMT, AHCO, AGNC, LSXMK, HTZ, DOMO, SEAS, PLAN, CVNA, SBGI, CEQP, TWTR, GXO, FTAI, LZ, UBER, CUK, RWT, INTU, AB, T, NCLH, LWLG, KRYS, DDS, ARRY and TGTX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KMPH 2) KRYS 3) EQT 4) EFA 5) IMGN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TGTX 2) BFRI 3) BNED 4) BZUN 5) JKS
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -1.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Shipping +.1% 2) Pharma -.4% 3) Biotech -.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MCRB, VIR, ANNX, BYSI, ENOB, MIRM, RVNC, GRTS, SABS, CHGG, ACRS, ZEN, NVAX, BBIO, AOSL, SMRT, PFE and EBS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TXRH 2) PVH 3) EFA 4) IMGN 5) BLMN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CPIX 2) VIR 3) MEIP 4) CTRN 5) ESMT

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +26.4% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
  • 16.4% of Issues Advancing, 79.7% Declining
  • 21 New 52-Week Highs, 187 New Lows
  • 49.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 41.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,000.0 -505.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,772 +.19%
  • Vix 26.8 +16.9%
  • Total Put/Call .72 -19.1%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.42 +17.4%

Monday, November 29, 2021

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:  
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch           
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com:  
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.0 -1.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 51.75 -2.0 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.07 +.17%. 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,584.0 +80.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.0 -.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.32%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (JKS)/.02
After the Close:
  • (AMBA)/.49
  • (BOX)/.21
  • (HPE)/.49
  • (NTAP)/1.21
  • (CRM)/.92
  • (ZS)/.12
Economic Releases 
9:00 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.0% gain in Aug. 
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +1.15% versus a +1.17% gain in Aug.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for Nov. is estimated to fall to 67.0 versus 68.4 in Oct.
10:00 am EST
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 110.8 versus 113.8 in Oct.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly US retail sales reports, Scotiabank Mining Conference, BofA Materials/Infrastructure Conference, Wells Fargo TMT Summit and the Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retail Conference could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.