Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Emerging Market Currency/Debt Worries, Rising Long-Term Rates, Alt Energy/Gambling Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.1 +5.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,066.0 +128.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.54 +.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 +7.4%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.1 unch.

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0  -21.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 +7.6%

• NYSE Arms .70 +9.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.15 +1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 397.48 +.32%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.44 +3.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.46 +1.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 199.37 +3.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.46 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 -4.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 12.0 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.0 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.33 -2.31%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 104.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.20 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.1 -3.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -16.7 +26.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.6 +.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 unch.
• 95.0% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 76.6% chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 203 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +2/100K people
• 38% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -184 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -67 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  75% Net Long