Wednesday, November 03, 2021

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Dovish FOMC Commentary, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.5 -3.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,432.0 +100.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.39 +.25%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.11 -.65%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.8 -4.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 136.0  +2.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .62 -11.4%
  • NYSE Arms .82 -40.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.18 -1.7%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 360.11 +.8%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.49 -.73%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 122.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.07 -.14%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 182.47 -2.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.22 +1.1%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 9.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  62.0 -2.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.99 +.07%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  • Yield Curve 106.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.50 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.5 +15.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -49.6 +2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.2 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 +4.0 basis points
  • 95.1% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 84.1% chance of no change at March 16th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 155 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +0/100K people
  • 29% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +225 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +32 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +41 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long

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