Wednesday, August 31, 2022

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:     
Wall Street Journal:  
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Twitter: 
  • @PeterDClack - The US has 276 million motor vehicles, the UK 31 million. Electrifying all US vehicles alone would need 18 times current global production of cobalt, nine times the neodymium, three quarters of lithium & half the world's copper & rare earths. China dominates all these markets. 
  • @endless_frank - I don’t think most Americans realize how dire the situation is in Europe. If your utility bill went from $250/month to $2500, discretionary spending would get obliterated. The EU makes up 25% of $SPX earnings. Corporate earnings will fall off a cliff as the weather cools.
GETTR:
 OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 142.75 +5.75 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 74.75 +1.75 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.7 -.07%.  
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 40.6 +.8%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.40 +1.0 basis point
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.5 +1.8%
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.82%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.64%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -1.1%  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (FLWS)/-.25
  • (CPB)/.56
  • (CIEN)/.34
  • (GCO)/.26
  • (GIII)/.47
  • (HRL)/.41
  • (OLLI)/.33
  • (PDCO)/.38
  • (SIG)/2.59
  • (TTC)/1.13
  • (WB)/.45
After the Close:
  • (AVGO)/9.55
  • (LULU)/1.85
  • (OXM)/3.48
  • (PD)/-.08
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • Challenger Job Cuts for Aug.
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 248K versus 243K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1438K versus 1415K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for July is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -1.1% decline in June.
  • ISM Manufacturing for Aug. is estimated to fall to 51.9 versus 52.8 in July.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Aug. is estimated to fall to 55.3 versus 60.0 in June.
Afternoon:
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Aug. is estimated to fall to 13.3M versus 13.35M in July.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Manufacturing PMI report and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory data could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.0 -.8%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.16% -33.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 40.1 +1.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.59 +.33%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 -1.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.7 +.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 +17.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 -10.8%
  • NYSE Arms .88 -8.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 91.9 +1.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 426.0 +1.0%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 364.0 +8.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 130.27 +2.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 235.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.38 +2.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 330.12 +.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.75 +.94%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 36.75 basis points +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.0 basis points +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  141.0 +1.0 basis point
  • iShares CMBS ETF 47.56 +.11%
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .79 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.72 -.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.91% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -32.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 240.0 euros/megawatt-hour -9.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -27.6 -10.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.4 -9.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.8 -10.6 points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.06 +.04:  Growth Rate +16.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 16.8 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.40 +4.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.57% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.62% unch.: CPI YoY +8.24% -4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 -4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 64.8%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 61.8%(-2.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%.
US Covid-19:
  • 175 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 10.0%(-.5 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -75.5%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -262 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -103 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -33 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Semis -1.4% 2) Computer Hardware -1.2% 3) Retail -1.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • LEVI, FWONK, BBY, ATI, AOSL, SYNA, ENVX, WSM, CIEN, OLLI, DOMO, FAZE, MOS, UPLD, FCF, CLAR, XMTR, CRWD, HPQ, BIG, CHWY, PVH and AMBA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NTNX 2) TIP 3) SNAP 4) DD 5) MDB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AZRE 2) AMBA 3) GME 4) PVH 5) NBEV
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +.7% 2) Alt Energy +.6% 3) Gambling +.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CHPT, SNAP, CGEM, FSLR and LXU
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) NTNX 2) AVCT 3) AMBA 4) XOP 5) EW
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NETI 2) BNED 3) MRTX 4) ALT 5) PINS

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -6.0% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 40.0% of Issues Advancing, 54.9% Declining
  • 6 New 52-Week Highs, 114 New Lows
  • 30.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 42.1% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 40.4 +1.6%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,564.5 -.27%
  • Vix 25.7 -2.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.12 -6.7%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.03 +7.3% 

Tuesday, August 30, 2022

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      
Wall Street Journal:  
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch:       
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:  
Twitter: 
GETTR:
 OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.0 +1.0 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 73.0 +1.0 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.82 +.06%.  
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 40.5 +1.8%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.45 -1.0 basis point
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.3 -.6%
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.2%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (PLAN)/-.07
  • (BF/B)/.47
  • (DCI)/.84
  • (VRA)/.12
After the Close:
  • (AI)/-.24
  • (COO)/3.23
  • (FIVE)/.79
  • (MDB)/-.28
  • (OKTA)/-.30
  • (SMTC)/.85
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for Aug. is estimated at 300K.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI report for Aug. is estimated to rise to 52.2 versus 52.1 in July.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,033,333 barrels versus a -3,282,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline inventories are estimated to fall by -733,330 barrels versus a -27,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -450,000 barrels versus a -662,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.28% versus a +.3% gain prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, China Services PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Deutsche Bank Tech Conference and the (BBBY) investor update could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.