Saturday, February 15, 2025

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     
Zerohedge:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (FRPT).
  • Had bearish commentary on (TAP), (DEO), (bf/b), (BUD) and (STZ).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:  

NewsMax:       

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @WarClandestine
  • @nicksortor
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @Ultrafrog17
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @officer_Lew
  • BREAKING: Preliminary reports are saying the Blackhawk helicopter involved in the DC crash with the American Airlines jet, "didn't understand" tower instructions to "fly behind the jet" and also that their altitude indicator was "inaccurate".
  • @MarioNawfal 
  • @SteveGuest
  • @KashPatelX
  • @TheStormRedux
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:

Friday, February 14, 2025

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @KanekoaTheGreat
  • EXCLUSIVE: A 40-minute compilation of President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore cutting the federal workforce, eliminating agencies, slashing wasteful spending and regulations, and reducing the deficit. You know, like Trump, Musk, and DOGE. (video)
  • @Liz_churchill10
  • @JimFergusonUK
  • @CartlandDavid
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @VigilantFox
  • @MarioNawfal
  • @kylenabecker
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
  • @dom_lucre
  • @nataliegwinters
  • @realdogeusa

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,117.7 +1.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 44,571.5 +.6%
  • NASDAQ 20,007.5 +2.5%
  • Russell 2000 2,281.9 +.07%
  • NYSE FANG+ 14,022.6 +2.9%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 206.4 +1.3%
  • Wilshire 5000 60,799.0 +1.4%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,187.3 +1.9%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,915.99 +.8%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 900.6 +2.0%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 249.1 -.8%
  • NYSE Technology 5,936.4 +4.7%
  • Transports 16,578.4 +2.7%
  • Utilities 1,010.0 +1.3%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 130.2 +1.7%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 44.3 +2.2%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 219.2 +.7%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 117.0 +.4%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 541,197 +.04%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.7 +114.5%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 574 +237
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -28.6 +6.3%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 230,313 -12.8%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,765,342 -.96%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -12.5%
  • OEX Put/Call .80 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment 198.0 +19.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.36 +95.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 76.5 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.60 -18.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.0 -10.3%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .31 -76.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 12.1 -10.2%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.1 -6.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.0 -3.7%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 20,840.3 +.46%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  75.6 -9.2
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.923 Trillion +.08%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$5.997 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 28.4 -14.7%
  • AAII % Bears 47.3 +10.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 44.0 (FEAR) +2.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 313.19 +1.9%
  • Crude Oil 70.8/bbl. -.38%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 209.1 -.71%
  • Natural Gas 3.74 +13.0%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.7 euros/megawatt-hour -9.5%
  • Heating Oil 246.2 +1.2% 
  • Newcastle Coal 106.3 (1,000/metric ton) -6.1%
  • Gold 2,884.0 +.8%
  • Silver 32.4 +1.4%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 456.7 +1.7%
  • Copper 466.10 +1.4%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 359.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.83%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%
  • CME Lumber  612.50 +3.0%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,527.7 +2.3%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 295.0 USD/Short Ton +1.7%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +2.34% -60.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.7% -.3 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.49 +4.6%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 238.4 -59.1%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(384 of 500 reporting) +10.4% -2.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.99 +.78:  Growth Rate +16.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 22.2 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.81% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 404.53 +1.67: Growth Rate +30.8% +.5 percentage point, P/E 34.6 +.9
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.5 -3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.0 +10.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.6 -7.3 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 2.5%(-5.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 97.5%(+5.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 3/19
  • US Dollar Index 106.69 -1.3%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,740.1 +.15%
  • Bitcoin/USD 98,427.8 +3.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.75 +2.3%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 22.25 +1.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.47% -2.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.768 Trillion +.04%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $3.199 Billion -7.7%
  • Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $.195 Billion +.04%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.0 -2.2%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 207.3 -1.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 109.0 -1.0 basis point
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.4 -8.4%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.55 -18.9%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 166.6 -4.0%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 87.7 +3.4%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.7 -9.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.96 +.36%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 116.43 +1.80%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +4.1% +10.0 basis points
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.5% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.5% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.2% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% +14.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.81% -4.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.98% +35.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -.5 basis point +.5 basis point
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.25 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 unch.
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 46.8 -3.7%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 179.0 -1.3
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 180.0 -2.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 56.3 -5.2%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 137.2 -3.5%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 150.6 -4.6%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 132.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 602.0 -2.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .46 -1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +3.9% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,258.8B +3.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 216,000 -.46%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.1 -.17%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.93% -1.0 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 230,000 +2.3%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.3% +55.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -74.0% -77.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $87.5M -23.1%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.17/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 780.0 -4.3%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,095.1/40 ft Box -5.4%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,387.0 -2.0%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.5 +13.3%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 59.1 +14.5%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 284,056 -2.6%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,560,756 +40.0%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +1.9%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Small-Cap Growth -.3%
Leading Sectors
  • Gambling +10.0%
  • Computer Hardware +9.7%
  • Video Gaming +5.3%
  • Digital Health +4.3%
  • Telecom +4.2%
Lagging Sectors
  • Airlines -1.5%
  • Pharma -1.7%
  • Networking -1.7%
  • Defense -3.9%
  • Construction -4.7%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (69)
  • UDMY, KC, MNMD, ABNB, CAE, ROKU, BEAM, PCOR, CRSP, BILI, ELME, DNA, WYNN, PONY, SMCI, NTLA, NMRK, HIMX, TSSI, ARCT, ANAB, DAVE, LC, BFAM, TEM, NBIS, LEG, AL, DXCM, AUR, GDS, FROG, TME, TDOC, BHF, CE, VRNA, LIND, EHTH, THS, ALGM, JD, CWST, HTHT, SOFI, PPC, W, BABA, WTTR, SONY, WMG, STLA, GME, PDD, HWM, FLUT, MRTN, BZ, EQH, BAM, CVNA and DELL
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (30)
  • CGNX, RDDT, FWONK, KRG, STAA, PG, DDOG, AEM, CC, MGA, MSI, KTOS, LULU, CLBT, FRT, IR, YELP, AMAT, HCC, DRS, DVA, CLW, SA, TWLO, GDDY, VERA, INFA, SOUN and SERV
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*5-Day Change