Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.89 -.14%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.53 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.5 +.1%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.31% +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.51%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.09%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.22%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Jitters, Sector Rotation, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.1%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.30% -4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.20% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.2 euros/megawatt-hour -.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.2 +.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.3 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.9 -.6 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(462 of 500 reporting) +11.2% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.93 +.12:  Growth Rate +12.7% unch., P/E 22.3 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 470.41 +.17: Growth Rate +24.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.4 -.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.30 -20.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.7 -.2
  • US Yield Curve 54.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% -.2 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.4% -.4 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 47.2% (+4.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.3%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -176 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -54 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Road & Rail +1.6% 2) Utilities +.8% 3) Pharma +.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PLYM, SSYS, KYIV, WW, PINC, INTC, BRBR, NWE, VEON, LOB, XPEV, TGNA, LNW, ZK, TSEM, PANW, TCOM, NSP and IBTA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BANC 2) AS 3) BILL 4) OMER 5) VKTX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PINC 2) PANW 3) PLYM 4) INTC 5) HD
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLV 3) IYW 4) IYZ 5) IDU
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ALC)/.72
  • (ADI)/1.95
  • (BIDU)/13.24
  • (DY)/2.92
  • (EL)/.09
  • (KC)/-.96
  • (LOW)/4.24
  • (TGT)/2.04
  • (TJX)/1.01 
  • (GES)/.15
  • (WSM)/1.78 
After the Close: 
  • (COTY)/.01
  • (NDSN)/2.64 
Economic Releases 

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -823,500 barrels versus a +3,036,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -83,250 barrels versus a -792,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,613,750 barrels versus a +714,000 barrel gain the prior week. 

2:00 pm EST

  • FOMC Meeting Minutes from July 30th. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Jackson Hole Symposium, 20Y T-Bond auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -14.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.3 -2.0
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 54.7% of Issues Advancing, 43.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.39 +40.4% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$30.4M
  • 59 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
  • 55.7% (+3.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.5 -.1
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 81.0 -.2%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.3 -1.0%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 161.2 -2.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 61.0 (GREED) -5.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.2 +16.3%
  • Vix 15.7 +4.9%
  • Total Put/Call .90 +12.5%

Monday, August 18, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:
  • @Business
  • @ZeroHedge 
  • @CNBC
  • @TheTranscript 
  • Palo Alto Networks double beat. CEO: "We exited FY 25 with an acceleration in RPO, and surpassed the $10B revenue run-rate milestone, positioning ourselves well for sustained growth ahead." $PANW: +6.3% AH.
  • @MarioNawful
  • YOUR ONLINE FLIRT MIGHT BE A TRAFFICKED SLAVE IN A CHINESE SCAM CAMP. Thought the person who sent you a funny message on WhatsApp is an evil crook munching popcorn while lying about their gender? Try a trafficking victim locked in a prison-style compound in Cambodia, Laos, or Myanmar, forced by Chinese crime syndicates to run romance scams or get beaten, starved, or electrocuted. (video)
  • @rawsalerts
  • @TruthFairy131
  • @BillAckman
  • @HistoryNutOTD
  • @DrTrozzi
  • @MAGAVoice
  • @HustleBitch_
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.89 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 81.2 +.1%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.33% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.9 -.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.33%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Energy/Utility Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.14%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.34% +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.22% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.1 -2.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.5 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.3 -1.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(459 of 500 reporting) +11.3% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.81 +.23:  Growth Rate +12.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 470.24 +.72: Growth Rate +24.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.7 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.50 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.9 -.4
  • US Yield Curve 56.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.8% -.1 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.64 -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 49.1% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 47.7%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +120 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +50 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +75 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Nuclear -.7% 2) Utilities -.5% 3) Gold & Silver -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • METC, ARLP, OS, ARCT, AR, QFIN, USAR, NNE and TNXP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MDT 2) IBB 3) IQ 4) WULF 5) FSLR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NNE 2) EMPD 3) LZGI 4) RSKD 5) REPL
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) ARKK 2) XLF 3) XLC 4) XLI 5) LABU

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Education +4.6% 2) Electrification +3.5% 3) Oil Service +1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DAY, ZEPP, AAOI, KYIV, APLD, DUOL, NMAX, IBTA, CCOI, NXT, FSLR, RIOT, BTDR, RUN, CYD, SERV, DNA, OSCR, TTD, NEGG, CHA, SBET, HSAI, IREN, AMN, SYNA, SONO, CELH, ENPH, SEDG, RCL, WIX, ZK, LQDA, JBS, NVO, LULU, VEON, VKTX, NOVT, TBPH, TEM, SUPV, RIGL, UNH, MUX, UNH, PENG and PGY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FIVE 2) SWK 3) JBS 4) OS 5) PRMW
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DAY 2) PPCB 3) VTAK 4) FSLR 5) RUN
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SILJ 2) XBI 3) VGT 4) XOP 5) SOXX
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AS)/.02
  • (HD)/4.72
  • (MDT)/1.23 
  • (VIK)/.99 
After the Close: 
  • (JKHY)/1.58
  • (KEYS)/1.67
  • (LZB)/.53
  • (SQM)/.51
  • (TOL)/3.60
  • (ZTO)/2.86 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Housing Starts for July is estimated to fall to 1296K versus 1321K in June.
  • Building Permits for July is estimated to fall to 1385K versus 1393K in June. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly crude oil stock report, America Taiwan Tech Forum, (MCHP) annual meeting and the Needham Virtual Semi/Semi-Cap Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -21.5% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 18.3 +2.0
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 55.2% of Issues Advancing, 42.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .86 +6.2% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$40.8M
  • 45 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
  • 54.0% (+1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.6 +1.1
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 80.4% -.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 250.9 +.24%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.2 +.4%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.2 -39.3%
  • Vix 15.2 +.5%
  • Total Put/Call .81 +9.5

Sunday, August 17, 2025

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @Zerohedge  
  • @CNBC
  • @TheTranscript
  • Bloom Energy CEO had a humorous but revealing take on why some customers still choose legacy solutions like gas turbines instead of Bloom’s fuel cells: "I completely agree with you, but nobody gets fired for buying IBM." $BE.
  • @GatewayPundit
  • @FoxNews  
  • @MarioNawful
  • IVY LEAGUE = ONE-PARTY STATE. Harvard isn’t a campus anymore. It’s a monoculture in tweed. 99% Democrat. Princeton? 98. Yale, Berkeley? 97. Even “balanced” UCLA is 89. That’s not a lean. That’s ideological foreclosure. Republicans aren’t underrepresented - they’re an endangered species. The actual diversity crisis isn’t race or gender. It’s thought. These schools are incubators of America’s ruling class: presidents, justices, CEOs, the people writing tomorrow’s laws and algorithms. If every seminar room is an echo chamber, what happens when the echo becomes law? Academic freedom thrives on friction. Without it, the Ivy League stops being a university system and starts being a ministry of truth. The real question: who dares break the spell?
  • ISRAELI CYBER OFFICIAL BUSTED IN U.S. PEDOPHILIA STING. Las Vegas police arrested 8 men in a major operation targeting online child predators, including Israeli cyber directorate employee Tom Artiom Alexandrovich. He worked on Israel’s national cyber defense and even helped design the “Cyber Dome,” but now he’s on forced leave after returning home. Cops say the suspects tried luring minors online for sex. FBI and Vegas PD warn parents to keep a close eye on kids’ online activity. 
  • 4,000+ U.S. TROOPS DEPLOYED TO LATIN AMERICA IN MASSIVE ANTI-CARTEL MISSION. The U.S. military is flooding the waters around Latin America and the Caribbean with over 4,000 Marines and sailors as part of Trump’s counter-cartel push. a deployment so large it includes warships, a nuclear-powered sub, spy planes, and an entire Marine Expeditionary Unit. (video)
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @CharlieKirk11
  • @paulsperry_
  • @Nichulscher
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @IAnonPatriot
  • @RodDMartin 
  • @FBIDirectorKash
  • @Nicksortor
  • @dom_lucre
  • @RepLuna
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @FightWithMemes
  • @EYakoby
  • @gc22gc
  • @RogerJStoneJr
  • @C_3C_3
  • @ImMeme0
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.25 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.75 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.91 -.13% 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.62 -.06%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.9 -.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.31% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.4 -.6%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.17%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.