Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.75 +1.0 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS  70.5 +3.0 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.25 -.02%.  
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,994.0 - points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.2 +.%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.44%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.38%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (CONN)/.17
  • (DCI)/.72
  • (WB)/.46
After the Close:
  • (AI)/-.29
  • (CHWY)/-.13
  • (GME)/-1.22
  • (HPE)/.45
  • (MDB)/-.10
  • (NTAP)/1.28
  • (PVH)/1.60
  • (SMTC)/.76
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for April is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.1% gain in March.
  • ISM Manufacturing for May is estimated to fall to 54.5 versus 55.4 in April.
  • ISM Prices Paid for May is estimated to fall to 80.5 versus 84.6 in April.
  • JOLTS Job Openings for April is estimated to fall to 11300K versus 11549K in March.
2:00 pm EST
  • US Fed Beige Book release.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Eurozone PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly US retail sales reports, Cowen Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, Wells Fargo Energy Conference, Loop Capital Investor Conference,  RBC Consumer/Retail Conference, (LEVI) investor day and the (PCAR) analyst day could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on More Hawkish Fed Commentary, Higher Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, Biotech/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.3 -1.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,430.0 +240.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.13 +.42%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 -1.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.9 -1.3% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +9.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .91 +62.5%
  • NYSE Arms .75 -14.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.52 +.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 379.40 -2.7%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 97.2 +3.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 200.0 basis points +6.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.75 +2.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 270.07 +1.7%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.7 -.42%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9,643.46 -20.6%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 34.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 54.75 basis points +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.5 basis points unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  117.0 +2.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 48.62 -.4%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.25 -.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.04% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 29.0 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 131.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -37.8 +5.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.6 +8.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.2 +7.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.70 +4.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 219 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 13.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.7%(n/a) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +6 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -73 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Biotech -2.1% 2) Retail -1.9% 3) Shipping -1.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SD, DKS, SIX, MDB, ALB, NTNX, LUNG, PGNY, MLM, TRIP, ARLP, PINS, BCC, LESL, FLYW, EVH, REGN, X, CDNA, HALO, RADI, IVT, BMRN, GPS, SCVL, METC, TDW, ILMN, QDEL, BIG, PCH, ZEN, RELY, DKNG, SNAP, AMR, LTHM, MOV, ARCH, AEO, RNA, ANF, GME, NTCT, PODD, UDMY, MYGN, SIGA and PMVP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AMRS 2) MULN 3) MAT 4) JEF 5) CRM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) KIRK 2) PODD 3) FRO 4) GME 5) SNAP
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Energy +1.4% 2) Restaurants -.6% 3) Agriculture +.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SAVA, MSTR, COIN, CLAR, DXCM, HDSN, FPI and SWTX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GSAT 2) FLR 3) HUSA 4) NOG 5) AMRS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MULN 2) DXCM 3) MRO 4) DISH 5) GRAB

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +4.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 31.6% of Issues Advancing, 65.0% Declining
  • 84 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
  • 33.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 49.8% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,465.0 +270.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,961.0 +.5%
  • Vix 26.1 -1.5%
  • Total Put/Call .95 +69.6%
  • TRIN/Arms .60 -31.8%

Monday, May 30, 2022

Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:            
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News: 
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
MarketWatch.com:          
TheGatewayPundit.com:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 67.5 -5.0 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.28 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,308.0 +116.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.8 -.18%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.51%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +1.06%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • (AMBA)/.37
  • (HPQ)/1.05
  • (CRM)/.94
  • (VSCO)/.84
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for March is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +2.1% gain in Feb.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.9% versus a +2.39% gain in Feb.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for May is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 56.4 in April.
10:00 am EST
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May is estimated to fall to 103.7 versus 107.3 in April.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for May is estimated to rise to 1.5 versus 1.1 in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Non-Manufacturing PMI report, Jefferies Software Conference and the KeyBanc Industrials/Basic Materials Conference could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Sunday, May 29, 2022

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (GOOG), (LRCX), (FB), (MU), (NFLX), (BMY) and (WELL).

Fox News:

CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
MarketWatch.com:
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):