Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• Biden’s Latest Taiwan Gaffe Hikes Suspicion, Tensions in Beijing.  
• Asia Manufacturers Say the Pandemic-Driven Trade Boom Is Fading.
• What Is the ‘Quad’ and Should China Fear It?
• US Futures Sink as Snap Warning Hits Social Firms: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Little Changed as EU Stalemate on Russian Embargo Deepens.
  
• Activision Union Gets Legal Recognition in Gaming First.
  
• Fed Rate-Hike Pause in September May ‘Make Sense,’ Bostic Says.  
• A Hot, Deadly Summer Is Coming With Frequent Blackouts.  
• California Governor Threatens Water Use Cuts Due to Drought.  
• Traffic at NYC-Area Bridges and Tunnels Hits Pre-Pandemic Levels.  
• Hedging in High Demand as Wall Street Questions S&P 500’s Bounce.  
• Farmers Still Seen Making Money Despite Soaring Fuel, Fertilizer.

Wall Street Journal:

• Ukraine’s Forces Sink Russian River Crossings, Inflicting Heavy Damage.
• Latest Updates: Russian Diplomat Resigns Over War.
• Broadcom Weighs Paying $60 Billion for VMware.
• Egypt’s Bread Crisis Awakens Old Fears of Political Unrest.
• The Pronoun Police Come for Middle Schoolers. A Wisconsin school district opened a Title IX sexual-harassment investigation against 8th graders for calling a student ‘her’ instead of ‘them.’ 
• The Top 50 Richest People Have Lost More Than Half a Trillion Dollars This Year.

Fox News:

• Details surrounding the mysterious deaths of 3 Americans at Bahamas resort reportedly determined.
• Socialist candidate calls for one million people to break into empty homes.

CNBC.com:

• Bitcoin could fall to $8,000, a more than 70% plunge, Guggenheim’s Minerd says.
• SpaceX president backs Elon Musk over sex misconduct claims: ‘I believe the allegations to be false’.
• Airbnb is closing its domestic business in China, sources say.  
  

MarketWatch:       

• Opinion: ‘I feel like I am reliving the summer of 2008.’ Strategist David Rosenberg sees bear market sinking the S&P 500 to 3,300.
  
• Zoom stock walks back initial surge following earnings beat, improved profit forecast.  
• U.S. earnings revisions could knock stocks down another 5% to 10%, warns Morgan Stanley.  
• The Great Resistance is here. Companies and employees are in a battle of wills over returning to the office.

Zero Hedge: 

• Posobiec Gives Details Of Davos Detention.
• What It Means That 'Hillary Clinton Did It'.
• NYC Parents Want In-Person Meeting With Mayor Over Toddler Mask Mandate: "Our Calls Have Gone Unanswered".
• US Army Mulls Letting Soldiers Switch Bases If Local Laws Discriminate Against Gender Identity.
• White House Press Secretary Says There’s No Timeline for When Baby Formula Shortage Ends.
• It's Not Just The USA: The Economic Instability Is Global.
• Bird Flu Outbreak Plunges US Egg Production To 7-Year-Low.
• CDC Now Recommends COVID Testing For All Domestic Air Travel, Including The Vaccinated.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - US stocks rebounded after the recent streak of weekly losses.
• Google And Facebook Targeted By Bipartisan Lawmakers Over Advertising Dominance.
• Monkeypox Outbreak Primarily Spreading Via Sexual Contact: WHO Officials.
• Snap Shares Crater After Company Unexpectedly Slashes Guidance.
• UN Food Head Warns Conditions "Worse" Than Arab Spring As Inflation Riots Spread.
• Zelensky Says If Ukraine Falls, American Lives Will Be At Risk.
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks rally in wake of China commentary, Fed speak, M&A activity; hawkish Lagarde supports Euro.
• 'Dimon'-Hands Lift Stocks; Bonds, Bitcoin, & Dollar Dumped.

Newsmax:   

•  Report: Putin Arms Belarus With Nuke-Capable Missiles

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• WOW! Joe Biden Admits It’s ALL On Purpose: “When It Comes to Gas Prices, We’re Going Through INCREDIBLE TRANSITION – God Willing, We’ll Be Less Reliant on Fossil Fuels” (VIDEO).
• Psychotherapist Who Conducts Transgender “Therapy” Encourages Teens to Distrust Their “Bigoted, Misinformed Parents” – Especially if They’re “Religious” (VIDEO).
• Mayor Eric Adams Declares NYC State of Emergency Over Infant Formula Shortage to Prevent Price Gouging.
• Male High School Teacher Writes About How Good it Feels to Wear Women’s Panties to School and Coming out as ‘Non-Binary’ to His Students.
• LIBERAL MEDIA FREAKOUT After President Trump Shares Response to El Salvador President’s Tweet on “Enemy from Within” Destroying America and Pushing Country to Civil War.
• Like a Creepy Neighbor: State Farm Donating Transgender Books for Kindergarteners to Schools in Florida.
• Georgia Governor Kemp and Secretary of State Raffensperger – Examples of Dereliction of Duty in Addressing Election Fraud to the Point of Being Complicit.
• Journalist and Twitter Star Jack Posobiec and Film Crew Detained by Armed Police in Davos.
• Gas Prices Reach 12th Straight All-Time Record High at $4.596/ Gallon on Monday — First Time in History of 12 Straight Days of Record Gas Prices.

The Epoch Times:

• Biden Says US Considering Removing Tariffs on China.
• Gen. Milley Warns West Point Graduates of Likelihood of War With Russia, China.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 817,537 Reports(+4,517 from prior week) Through May 13th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.75 -4.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  79.25 -5.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.52 -.06%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,002.0 -6.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.7 +2.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.8%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.4%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ANF)/.09
• (AZO)/26.06
• (BBY)/1.56
• (FRO)/-.01
• (NTES)/7.03
• (WOOF)/.15
• (RL)/.41
  

After the Close:

• (A)/1.12
• (INTU)/7.58
• (JWN)/-.04
• (TOL)/1.63
• (URBN)/.42
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for May is estimated to fall to 57.7 versus 59.2 in April.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for May is estimated to fall to 55.2 versus 55.6 in April.

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May is estimated to fall to 10 versus 14 in April.
• New Home Sales for April is estimated to fall to 750K versus 763K in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, 2Y T-Note auction, Eurozone PMI report, weekly US retail sales reports, RBC Datacenter/Cloud/Broadband Infrastructure Conference, Wolfe Transport/Industrials Conference, (AVID) investor day and the (NVS) investor event could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.