Saturday, October 31, 2020

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:        
 Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Had bullish commentary on (NEM), (ABT), (SBAC), (ROP), (CSL), (ANTM), (PH), (LFUS), (TEL) and (ZNGA).
MarketWatch.com:  
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:  
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:          
NY Post: 
Zero Hedge:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 +1.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 39.25 +1.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.83 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index -646.0 +15.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 34.70 -3.61%
  • FTSE 100 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.79%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.69%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ALXN)/2.59
  • (ADS)/2.27
  • (AMT)/2.01
  • (BUD)/.77
  • (APTV)/.82
  • (BAX)/.72
  • (BWA)/.79
  • (BC)/1.32
  • (CCL)/-1.90
  • (CMCSA)/.51
  • (COP)/-.31
  • (DNKN)/.80
  • (DD)/.75
  • (FSS)/.38
  • (FCN)/1.36
  • (GPI)/6.55
  • (ICE)/.98
  • (IP)/.49
  • (K)/.86
  • (KHC)/.62
  • (MDC)/1.22
  • (MRNA)/-.37
  • (TAP)/1.03
  • (NEM)/.83
  • (OSK)/-.31
  • (OSTK)/-.31
  • (PENN)/.44
  • (PWR)/1.09
  • (RL)/.87
  • (RCL)/-4.95
  • (SHOP)/.50
  • (TROW)/2.44
  • (TPR)/.22
  • (YUM)/.79
After the Close:
  • (ATVI)/.65
  • (GOOG)/11.17
  • (AMZN)/7.36
  • (AAPL)/.70
  • (CAR)/.25
  • (CVNA)/-.29
  • (CAKE)/-.38
  • (DECK)/2.68
  • (LOCO)/.22
  • (ETH)/.35
  • (FB)/1.91
  • (FTNT)/.78
  • (ILMN)/.80
  • (MGM)/-1.02
  • (MHK)/2.14
  • (PSMT)/.60
  • (QDEL)/4.70
  • (SHAK)/-.21
  • (SKYW)/-.19
  • (SBUX)/.31
  • (TRUP)/.01
  • (TWTR)/.05
  • (X)/-1.40
  • (OLED)/.49
  • (VRTX)/2.32
  • (AUY)/.08
  • (ZEN)/.11
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 770K versus 787K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 7775K versus 8373K prior.
  • 3Q GDP is estimated to rise +32.0% versus a -31.4% decline in 2Q.
  • 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +38.9% versus a -33.2% decline in 2Q.
  • 3Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +2.9% versus a -1.8% decline in 2Q. 
  • 3Q Core PCE QoQ is estimated to rise +4.0% versus a -.8% decline in 2Q.
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a +8.8% gain in Aug.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The ECB decision/press conference, German Unemployment report, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (VEEV) investor day and the (SCHW) fall business update could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finished mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Biden Presidency/Tax Hike Fears, Virus Shutdown Worries, Oil Decline, Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 39.5 +18.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index -604.0 -426.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.94 -.48%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.64 +2.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 75.05 +19.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 +5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.15 +47.4%
  • NYSE Arms .59 -58.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.71 +6.69%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 831.23 +2.12%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.75 +9.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.0 +7.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.61 +1.93%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 220.31 +5.73%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 179.67 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.25 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 +1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  81.5 -1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.0 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.87 -.72%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 62.5 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 113.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.33%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 114.5 -2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 3.80 -6.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.30 +.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 -2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -258 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -64 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -37 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/consumer staple/tech/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -3.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -6.1% 2) Gold & Silver -6.0% 3) Oil Service -5.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • RQI, ACC, PXD, JELD, XOM, BCOV, LNTH, ZBH, OC, USFC, SLG, IBM, SMPL, LYFT, EFC, MWA, FLT, WAB, CSQ, PRLB, LYV, DCI, CEQP, CAT, WEX, SF, EFX, FVAC, BSX, NEM, V, MC, ATSG, LAMR, AVB, EOG, MAIN, BEN, GKOS, FVAC, SKX, CME, HOG, HGV, FIX, ROP, RTX, MA, IEX, JNPR, UPS, SIX, EQR, ENVA, GRA, CUK, ZYXI, CCL, STRL, UNM, AKAM, DT, DXCM, NCR, CHRW, HA, BBBY, EVBG, SUM, UVE, CHEF and ELY
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BKLN 2) JWN 3) DXCM 4) HPQ 5) AKAM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) EVBG 2) EQR 3) MA 4) UPS 5) CME
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value -2.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding +.8% 2) Insurance -1.5% 3) Biotech -1.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TUP, SRRK, CLGX, HZO, FSLR, EQH, UTHR, TCBI, CLAR, BG and VIVO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TUP 2) CHRW 3) ELY 4) FIS 5) EQR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AIZ 2) FNWB 3) CROX 4) LLY 5) EXAS
Charts:

 

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running +23.7% Above 100-Day Average
  • 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
  • 7.9% of Issues Advancing, 90.5% Declining
  • 11 New 52-Week Highs, 85 New Lows
  • 49.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 42.7% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index -647.0 -469.0 points
  • Vix 39.4 +18.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.13 +44.9%
  • TRIN/Arms .64 -55.2%

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
Zero Hedge:
@CurtisHouck:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.25 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 37.75 -.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.27 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index -177.0 +1.0 point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.80 +1.52%
  • FTSE 100 futures -.6%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.52%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.43%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ANTM)/4.18
  • (ADP)/.98
  • (BA)/-2.23
  • (BSX)/.25
  • (EAT)/-.16
  • (BG)/.20
  • (CME)/1.44
  • (DBD)/.27
  • (GNRC)/1.71
  • (GD)/2.88
  • (GE)/-.03
  • (LM)/.85
  • (MA)/1.66
  • (NSC)/2.37
  • (OC)/1.29
  • (R)/-.32
  • (SEE)/.66
  • (TUP)/.41
  • (UPS)/1.89
After the Close:
  • (AEM)/.69
  • (AMGN)/3.74
  • (AVB)/2.17
  • (CERN)/.72
  • (CGNX)/.33
  • (CTSH)/.90
  • (CXO)/1.22
  • (EBAY)/.83
  • (FSLY)/-.01
  • (F)/.18
  • (GILD)/1.84
  • (KLAC)/2.79
  • (LVGO)/.06
  • (OII)/-.15
  • (ORLY)/6.44
  • (RCII)/1.02
  • (NOW)/1.03
  • (SAVE)/-2.67
  • (SFM)/.35
  • (RGR)/.98
  • (SPWR)/-.08
  • (TDOC)/-.30
  • (URI)/4.34
  • (V)/1.10
  • (WERN)/.67
  • (WDC)/.55
  • (WH)/.31
  • (YUMC)/.49
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Sept. is estimated to widen to -$84.5B versus -$82.9B in Aug.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in Aug.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,152,910 barrels versus a -1,002,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -19,270 barrels versus a +1,895,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,989,090 barrels versus a -3,832,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.65% versus a -2.2% decline prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Bank of Canada decision, Bank of Japan decision, 5Y T-Note auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.