Saturday, December 31, 2022

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Wall Street Journal: 
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (WMB), (KMI), (EPD), (ET), (AMLP), (JPM), (PNC), (C), (USB), (ON), (FLEX), (TEL), (TTWO) and (FWONK).

Fox News: 

CNBC:
Zero Hedge:

MarketWatch.com:       

NewsMax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times: 
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Friday, December 30, 2022

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Passage of Stagflationary Omnibus Spending Bill, China Hard-Landing Fears, Technical Selling, Transport/Restaurant Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume:  Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.1 +3.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .82%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.5 +.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.18 -1.13%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 -.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.3 +.96% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 +3.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.18 -6.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.42 +208.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.9 -.28%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 394.5 -.54%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 281.0 -18.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.55 -2.4% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 449.09 n/a
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 214.0 basis points +5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.77 -.59%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 238.61 +.31%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.93 -.50%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 30.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 41.0 basis points +12.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.0 basis points +1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  145.0 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 118.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .86 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 +.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% -5.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.30%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 76.3 euros/megawatt-hour -10.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.70 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.9 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.6 -.4 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.75 +.02:  Growth Rate +10.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 16.6 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.37 -8.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -55.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.66% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.52% unch.: CPI YoY +6.64% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 61.7%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 41.3%(-5.3 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
US Covid-19:
  • 119 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 6.8%(-2.1 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -35/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -73.8%(+.3 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -314 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -45.7% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
  • 32.5% of Issues Advancing, 64.1% Declining
  • 20 New 52-Week Highs, 37 New Lows
  • 37.7%(-4.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 49.0 -1.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.8 +.6%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,065.6 -.49%
  • Vix 21.8 +1.8%
  • Total Put/Call 1.15 -8.7%
  • TRIN/Arms .86 +87.0% 

Thursday, December 29, 2022

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:             

Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:
Twitter: 
 OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.0 +.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 73.75 -4.5 basis points. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 115.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  56.0 -.7%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.38 -9.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.3 +.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.21%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.19%.  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI report for Dec. is estimated to rise to 40.0 versus 37.2 in Nov.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The UK home price report could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.