Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                 

• World Economy Is Headed for a Recession in 2023, Researcher Says.
• China to Scrap Inbound Quarantine in Dismantling of Covid Zero.
• South Korean Equities Eye Worst Year Since 2008 on Chip, Entertainment Stocks.  
• Modi’s Building Boom Setting Up India as Global Steel Savior.
• Toyota Hits Record November Output, But Shortages Loom.
  
• Iran Compels Jet to Land, Removes Family of Football Icon Ali Daei.
• Credit-Market Rebound Leaves Korea’s Weaker Firms Lagging Behind.  
• Stocks Rise in Asia, Currencies Mixed in Cautious Trading: Markets Wrap.   
• Oil Rises as China Loosens Travel Rules, US Battles Winter Freeze.
• Seattle-Area Substations Attacked as Threats to Power Grid Widen.
• Southwest Near Standstill as Over 80% of Flights Scrapped or Late.
  
• US Natural-Gas Supplies Constrained as Extreme Cold Freezes Pipes.  
• All The Ways That Crypto Broke This Year.
  
• Five Charts That Capture the State of Global Energy in 2022.   
• 2022 in Data and Graphics.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Christmas Electric Grid Emergency. Strain caused by climate policies left too many Americans shivering over the weekend. Worse is coming.
• Death Toll From Storm in Buffalo, N.Y., Region Rises to at Least 25.
• China Borders to Open Despite Surge in Covid Cases.
• Price Changes Show Inflation’s Uneven Reach.
• China Sends Warplanes Near Taiwan in Response to U.S. ‘Provocations’.
• TikTok Security Dilemma Revives Push for U.S. Control.
• FDA Fast-Tracks Review of Naloxone for Use Without Prescription.
• Drug Prices Reach New High—in the Millions.

CNBC:

• Airlines cancel over 12,000 flights during severe winter storms and scramble to rebook holiday travelers.
• Meat bans, soaring gold prices and ‘un-Brexit’? One bank’s ‘outrageous’ predictions for 2023.
• Here’s what lies ahead for China after zero-Covid failed.

Zero Hedge:   

• THE TWITTER FILES: How Twitter Rigged The Covid Debate.
• Netflix Customers Could Face Criminal Charges For Sharing Their Password.
• China Sends Record 71 Warplanes Near Taiwan In Show Of Force Aimed At US.
• Nio CEO Warns Of "Challenging" First Half To 2023 For The EV Maker.
• Fed Fight: Biden's BLS Lashes Out At Philly Fed Over Million-Job Revision. 
• The Left's Big Pitch: Embrace A Worse Life In The Name Of Equality.
• Footage Shows "Looting Across Buffalo" As City Plunged Into Chaos After Blizzard.
• "We Will Change Europe" - Polish PM Tells Italian Media He & Meloni Will Return Europe To A Union Of Homelands.
• Rogan Guest Goes Viral After Exposing "Subhuman" And "Appalling" Cobalt Mining Conditions In Congo.
• Will 2023 Be "Just An Average Recession In An Average Year" Or Will It Be Transformational?
• Tesla Suspends Ops At Shanghai Plant One Day Sooner Than Expected.
• With Most Markets Closed For Holidays, Asia Eeks Out Modest Gains.
• At Least 38 Dead As Winter Storm Chaos Sparks Driving Bans, Flight Cancellations Top 1,400.
• Swiss Government Rejects Third-Gender Option On Official Records.
• Why You Need To Start Paying Attention To The 'Twitter Files'.
• Putin "Ready" To Negotiate End To Ukraine War, But West Wants To "Tear Apart" Russia.
• Disinformation, Censorship, And Information Warfare In The 21st Century.
• Crematory Overrun In Beijing's Southeastern District, Burning 150 Bodies Daily: Reports.
• Google Execs Declare "Code Red" Over Revolutionary New Chat Bot.
• Dave Collum's 2022 Year In Review, Part 2: The War In Ukraine & How Does It End?
• Drowning In New Cases, China Finally Stops Releasing Daily Fabricated Covid "Data".
• The War On Christmas Is A War On America.
• Los Angeles County Follows City, Extends COVID-Era Eviction Moratorium.
• 1-In-6 Illinoisans Rely On Food-Stamps For Christmas Dinner.
• San Francisco Businesses Demand Tax Refund Over Drugs, Crime, & Homelessness Crisis.
• The Soaring Cost Of Christmas Dinner.
• Global Warming? It's Snowing In Miami At Packers-Dolphins Game. 
• Tesla Owner Stranded At Supercharger Station On Christmas Eve After Cold Weather Paralyzes Battery.
  

MarketWatch.com:        

• These are the China stories to watch in 2023.

NewsMax:

• Rasmussen Poll: 63 Percent Want FBI Probed for Censorship.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• BREAKING: Another Twitter Files Drop: How Twitter Rigged the COVID Debate. 
• Is Stanford University Involved in Bailing SBF Out of Jail?
• FBI Lawyer James Baker Wanted Trump’s Optimistic Tweet About Covid Deleted. 
• Update: 55 People Dead as Polar Vortex Batters US – Stranded Drivers Found Frozen to Death in Cars.
• Legendary LPGA Golfer Kathy Whitworth ‘Passed Suddenly’ While Celebrating Christmas Eve. 
• WATCH: Maricopa Elections Director Scott Jarrett Lied Under Oath In Kari Lake’s Historic Election Trial – Admits He Knew About Ballot Printing Issues “a Few Days After Election Day”.
• Massive Number Of People Moved Out Of Failed-State California In 2022 – More Than Any Other State. 
• In Case You Missed It… Bill Barr Screamed at Investigator Tony Shaffer Looking into Massive USPS Ballot Trafficking Report – Then Promptly KILLED the Investigation (VIDEO).
• Judge Peter Thompson Rules Elections with Broken Machines in 60% of Precincts and No Chain of Custody for Ballots Are Free, Fair and Certifiable.
• Arizona’s Law to Confirm Who Mails in Election Ballots (Signature Verification) Is Ignored to Steal Elections.
• Ordinary Americans Must Band Together to Take a Stand to Restore the Constitution and the Rule of Law. 
• Non-Profit Focused on Ending Cash Bail Shuts Down After Being Sued for Release of Offender Who Shot Man Days After Being Bailed Out.
• UPDATE: 37 Die in Weekend Freeze – More than All of the Global Warming Deaths This Year Combined.
• Thousands Lose Power After Three Substations Sabotaged in Tacoma, Washington.
• Elon Musk: “Almost Every ‘Conspiracy Theory’ That People Had About Twitter Turned Out To Be True” (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• China Had Biological Weapons Ambitions Long Before Pandemic: House Intelligence Committee Member.

Twitter:

• @Heritage - WOKE PRIORITIES IN THE OMNIBUS. Here are just a few earmarks (a.k.a. your taxpayer dollars set aside for special interests or projects) we found in the 1,455 page spending bill that are funding the left’s extreme agenda using YOUR money.
• @RepDanBishop - My team and I are reading through the omnibus bill today - all $1.7 trillion and 4,155 pages of it. Follow along for some of the most egregious provisions in the bill. The omnibus passed the House with the help of 9 Republicans - Katko (NY) Jacobs (NY) Cheney (WY) Fitzpatrick (PA) Upton (MI) Davis (IL) Herrera-Beutler (WA) Kinzinger (IL) Womack (AR). 
• @CitizenFreePres - A list of the 21 Senate Republicans who voted in favor to pass the 4,000 page, $1.7 trillion spending bill... Notable: Susan Collins, Tom Cotton, Lindsey Graham, Chuck Grassley, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, Tommy Tuberville.
• @TPostMillennial - Elon Musk warns there's "great danger in training AI to lie" after ChatGPT prohibited from promoting fossil fuels. THOUGHT POLICE: Biden regime funds AI model to weed out "microaggressions" on social media.
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 912,074 Reports(+5,295 from prior week) Through December 16th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.75 +1.0 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 78.25 +1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 111.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.41%
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 55.5 +.02%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.45 -5.0 basis points. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.4 -1.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.60%.
• S&P 500 futures +.59%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.71%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in Oct.
• Advance Goods Trade Deficit for Nov. is estimated at -$96.8B versus -$99.0B in Oct.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Nov. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.2% decline in Oct.
• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Oct. is estimated to fall -.7% versus a +.1% gain in Sept.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Oct. is estimated to fall -1.15% versus a -1.24% decline in Sept.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA for Oct. is estimated to rise +8.0% versus a +10.43% gain in Sept.
  

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Dec. is estimated to fall to -15.0 versus -14.4 in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Industrial Production report and 2Y T-Note auction could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.