Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Technical Buying, Seasonality, Commodity/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.7 -3.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.04%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.8 +6.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.3 -4.0%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 +1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.6 -2.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .99 -5.7%

• NYSE Arms .66 -32.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.5 +.89%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 394.3 -.02%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 408.0 -11.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 108.2 +1.5% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 455.6 +.97%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 217.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.4 +1.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 248.2 +.23%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.4 +.56%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 47.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  141.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 119.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.66 +.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.25% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 105.55 euros/megawatt-hour -2.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.3 -16.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.4 +.7 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.2 -.5 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.51 -.29:  Growth Rate +11.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 16.7 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.55 -3.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -58.25 basis points (2s/10s) +8.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.73% -5.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.72% -15.0 basis points: CPI YoY +6.69% -80.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +8.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 54.3%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 48.0%(+1.3 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 140 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(+0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.0%(-0.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -208 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long