Tuesday, December 20, 2022

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Technical Buying, Seasonality, Commodity/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume:  Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.7 -3.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.04%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.8 +6.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.3 -4.0%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 +1.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.6 -2.7% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +10.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .99 -5.7%
  • NYSE Arms .66 -32.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.5 +.89%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 394.3 -.02%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 408.0 -11.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 108.2 +1.5% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 455.6 +.97%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 217.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.4 +1.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 248.2 +.23%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.4 +.56%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 30.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 47.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  141.0 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 119.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.0 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.66 +.10%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.25% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 105.55 euros/megawatt-hour -2.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.3 -16.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.4 +.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.2 -.5 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.51 -.29:  Growth Rate +11.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 16.7 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.55 -3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -58.25 basis points (2s/10s) +8.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.73% -5.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.72% -15.0 basis points: CPI YoY +6.69% -80.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +8.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 54.3%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 48.0%(+1.3 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
US Covid-19:
  • 140 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(+0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.0%(-0.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -208 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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