Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Seasonality, Technical Buying, Energy/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.1 -4.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.23%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.5 +2.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.0 +.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 +.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.3 -2.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 +23.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .97 -22.4%

• NYSE Arms .95 +20.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.1 -1.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 382.6 -1.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 362.0 -22.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.3 -1.3% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 449.09 unch.
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 210.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.4 +.09%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 240.26 unch.
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.33 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.5 basis points -.75 basis points
  

• TED Spread 45.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  139.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 119.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .91 -5.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 +.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.28% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 110.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 84.97 euros/megawatt-hour -7.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.80 +.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 69.0 +.5 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.8 -.5 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.73 +.00:  Growth Rate +11.3% -.0 percentage point, P/E 16.7 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.42 +7.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -57.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.66% +93.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.52% -20.0 basis points: CPI YoY +6.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 55.7%(+0.0 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 47.7%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 154 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.9%(+.9 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +14/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -75.0%(+.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -4 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +59 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my commodity/industrial/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long