Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:               

• Putin Calls Russian Nukes a Deterrent, Says War Risk Is Rising.
• China Is the Wild Card for Global Inflation in 2023.   
• China’s Yuan Faces Reality Check After Reopening-Driven Rally.  
• Netherlands Plans Curbs on China Tech Exports in Deal With US.
•   Brazil Holds Key Rate at 13.75% as Lula’s Spending Plan Adds to Inflation Risk.
• Peru Swears In Boluarte as President After Castillo ‘Coup’ Fails.
• Asian Stocks Feel the Weight of US Recession Fears: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Edges Higher After Four-Day Retreat as Traders Look to China.
• Stock Reversal Shows How Fed’s Pivot May Come Too Late.   
• Ex-Theranos President Balwani Gets 13-Year Prison Term in Fraud Case.  
• Carvana Founder's Fortune Plunges 98% as Firm Burns Through Cash.   
• Elite Colleges Are Trying to Navigate a World Where the SATs Are Optional.

Wall Street Journal:

• TikTok Is Sued by Indiana, Accused of Misleading Users.
• What’s Going On With the Housing Market?
• Peru’s President Ousted After Attempting to Dissolve Congress.
• Apple Plans New Encryption System to Ward Off Hackers and Protect iCloud Data.
• The Pentagon Marches Off to Climate War. Biden’s new mandate on contractors adds green politics and costs to weapons.
• Accounting Red Flags Are Common Among Public Crypto Companies.
• FTX Hires Forensic Team to Probe Money Trail.
• Sister of Iran’s Supreme Leader Calls for Overthrow of His ‘Despotic Caliphate’.

Fox News:

• Democrats want you to voluntarily give up your Second Amendment rights.
• AOC asked if she’s still using TikTok as security concerns reach fever pitch.

CNBC.com:

• ‘There is a slowdown happening’: Wells Fargo, BofA CEOs point to cooling consumer amid Fed hikes.
• Google, Oracle, Amazon, and Microsoft awarded $9 billion Pentagon cloud deals.
• House Financial Services doesn’t plan to subpoena Sam Bankman-Fried to testify at hearing on FTX. 
• Skyrocketing demand for ADHD meds is straining the U.S. health care system.

MarketWatch:          

• Opinion: Stock market worry for 2023: Quiet quitting and working from home are bad for companies’ productivity.
  
• Snap and other tech companies have a new edict for employees: Return to the office.  
• GameStop reports worse-than-expected quarterly loss, revenue decline.   
• Carvana stock tumbles 43%, books worst day on record as bankruptcy fears rev up.  
• Is the travel boom fading? Analysts are getting more skeptical about 2023.

Zero Hedge:

• Sam Bankman-Freed: Maxine Waters Won't Subpoena Prominent Democrat Donor To Testify At Tuesday Hearing On FTX Implosion.
• Democratic Rep Took Donations From Bankman-Fried, Lobbied Against Crypto Regulation, And Now Blames SEC For FTX's Collapse.
• AOC Under Investigation By House Ethics Committee.
• A Big Theory Of Boom And Bust.
• A New Drug Called "Tranq" Is Worsening Philadelphia's Already Out-Of-Control Drug Problem.
• Ted Cruz On Twitter Files Revelations: "This Was All About Weaponizing Big Tech".
• Russia's Oil Exports Nosedive Following Price Cap.
• The inverted Santa rally.
• Credit Card Debt Hits All-Time High Just As US Savings Rate Plummets To 17-Year Low.
• Orange Juice Futures Limit Up On Global Supply Squeeze.
• China Confirms It Is "Mystery" Massive Gold Buyer With First Official Purchase In 3 Years.
• US stocks were subdued amid disinflationary data and Russian President Putin's nuclear rhetoric - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "Where Are Your Priorities?": Musk Lashes Out At SF Mayor After City Probes Twitter Setting Up Sleeping Areas For Employees.
• Zelensky Named Time's Person Of The Year, 15 Years After Putin.
• Has The Counter Revolution Arrived In The US?
• Risk subdued and havens bid on Putin threats and soft labour costs - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Bonds & Bullion Jump, Big-Tech & The Buck Slump, Black Gold Dumps.

Newsmax: 

• Rep. Van Drew to Newsmax: Biden Remark on Skipping Border Visit Was 'Horrific'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

•  Gov. DeSantis Seeks to Hold COVID Vaccine Makers ‘Accountable for Misleading the Public About the Vaccine’s Safety
• Woke Disney Is Back! New CEO Says Those in Power “Have an Extra Responsibility” to Promote Gun Control.
• BREAKING: Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer Colluded With Federal Agency, CISA, To Censor Election Critics – The Gateway Pundit Mentioned By Name.
• BREAKING: Gateway Pundit Was Right! — AZ Media PR Company Find Impossible Variant in Election Day Data – 25% of GOP Voters Flipped their Votes on Top GOP Candidates.
• CALL TO ACTION: DC Mayor Muriel Bowser Refuses To Allow J6 Political Prisoner Visitation…Even Computer Visitation After Nearly Two Years in DC Gulag.
• REMINDER: James Comey Praised His FBI Attorney James Baker, the Same Guy Fired Yesterday for Withholding Information at Twitter on Hunter Biden Laptop.
• RINO Members of MI Board of Canvassers MOCK Citizens Over Their LEGAL Request For Recount of 2022 Election: “I personally think this is a gigantic waste of time” [VIDEO].
• Shocking Video Shows 28-Year-Old Woman Drops Dead While Working Out at a Gym.
• EVIL IN OUR TIME: Soros is Funding 253 Leftist Groups to Influence Global Media and Push Their Anti-American Agenda on the Masses.
• Duke University Hospital Denies Life Saving Kidney Transplant to Dying 14-Year-Old Girl for Being Unvaccinated.
• Senator Tom Cotton to Woke Kroger CEO: “I’m Sorry That’s Happening to You. Best of Luck”.

The Epoch Times:

• 2 More Secret CCP Police Stations Discovered in LA, New York: Report.
• Indiana Sues TikTok for Endangering Children, Sending Data to China.

Twitter: 

• @ElAmerican_ - Hunter Biden Contacted the President of Chinese Company CEFC Asking for $10 Million.
• @songpinganq - JUST IN - Chinese government in Wuhan is still building new quarantine camps like crazy. (video) You still need a negative PCR test within 24 or 48 hours to enter many venues. This is Shenzhen city now: residents rushing to take daily PCR test to keep their green pass to be able to work and buy food in supermarkets...(video)
• @WallStreetSilv - Real global wages decline for the first time this century. Everything is fine. Economy is "strong". (graph)
• @C_Barraud - China's debt ratio hits record high at 3 times GDP - Nikkei.
• @ColumbiaBugle - Tucker Carlson: "Several Republican members of the Senate are trying to pass a Mass Amnesty before the new Republican Congress is seated next month. Leading that effort, and should become famous for this, is @SenThomTillis joined by Democrat @SenatorSinema." (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 903,327 Reports(+2,295 from prior week) Through November 25th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.0 +2.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 76.25 -4.0 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  45.7 +.3%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.66 unch.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.4 +.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.41%.

• S&P 500 futures -.36%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.44%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CIEN)/.07
• (KFY)/1.41
  

After the Close:

• (AVGO)/10.29
• (CHWY)/-.06
• (COO)/3.11
• (COST)/3.16
• (DUCU)/.42
• (LULU)/1.96
• (FIZZ)/.34
• (RH)/4.69
• (MTN)/-3.29
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 230K versus 225K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1618K versus 1608K prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan GDP report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (UL) investor event, (AVY) fireside chat, (XOM) corporate plan update, (DCO) investor day, (HAS) fireside chat and the (EW) investor conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.