Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, China Re-Opening Optimism, Dollar Weakness, Commodity/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.4 -6.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.41%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.1 +2.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.9 -.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 -1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.4 -2.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -10.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.50 +200.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.94 -1.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 369.17 -.11%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 432.0 +1.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.8 -4.9% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 440.49 -2.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 188.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.19 -2.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 223.80 -4.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.5 +.95%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 50.25 basis points +3.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -34.25 basis points -4.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  142.0 -8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 125.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.16 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.89 +.49%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.27% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.20 USD/Metric Tonne -.62%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 137.5 euros/megawatt-hour +.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.2 -2.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.8 +1.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.0 +1.4 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.24 +.04:  Growth Rate +11.2% unch., P/E 17.4 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.68 +2.0.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -72.75 basis points (2s/10s) +7.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.19% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.87% unch.: CPI YoY +7.49% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 54.1%(+19.0 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 47.6%(+8.3 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 140 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(+0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -78.2%(-.8 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +65 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +6 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -32 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/commodity/medical/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long