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Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less Emerging Markets/Eurozone Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Healthcare/Telecom Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 3:19 PM
Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.36 -2.55%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.86 -.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.10 -2.06%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.74 -1.01%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 129.0 +2.38%
  • Total Put/Call .75 -16.67% 
  • NYSE Arms 1.07 +26.91% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.45 -2.05%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.87 -2.34%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 34.30 -2.83%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 89.19 +.69%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 279.31 -.37%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 349.30 -2.52%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 20.25 -1.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +1 basis point
  • Yield Curve 224.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $105.40/Metric Tonne -2.68%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.50 -11.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -27.0 -.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 +2.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +16 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
0 comments

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 3:02 PM
Bloomberg:
  • Ukraine Vows to Stanch Separatism as Militants Spread. Ukraine’s acting president vowed to create a special police force to staunch the spread of separatism in the country’s east, vowing to overcome unrest he says is stoked by Russia and hold an election slated for May 25. Following an expansion of sanctions against people and companies linked to Vladimir Putin’s inner circle this week, the Russian president warned that further economic penalties over the crisis may lead the government to reconsider participation by foreign companies in his country’s energy and other key industries. European officials pressed their criticism of Russia’s commitment to an accord seeking to defuse tensions. As part of a creeping campaign by pro-Russian militants across Ukraine’s east, armed men seized government buildings in the city of Horlivka today, while news service Unian reported a member of the Donetsk electoral commission was kidnapped by “terrorists.”
  • Republicans Seek More Sanctions on Russia. President Barack Obama would be authorized to arm pro-Ukrainian forces and sanction Russian banks and oil companies under legislation introduced by the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The bill by Bob Corker of Tennessee will serve as the minority party’s counterproposal in the Democratic Party-controlled Senate to steps taken by the administration.
  • Putin's Threat to Retaliate for Sanctions Carries Risks. President Vladimir Putin’s threats to retaliate for further sanctions on Russia set the stage for escalating economic warfare that may have painful effects for U.S. and European companies. While the Russian leader is casting himself as reluctant to take countermeasures against additional penalties from the U.S. and European Union, he hasn’t ruled out doing so eventually. Such a move could dash billions of dollars in foreign investment in some of the world’s biggest untapped oil reserves.
  • Bondholders Urged U.S. to Curb Russia Sanctions, Fitch Says. The U.S. is holding off on sanctions against some Russian companies because it doesn’t want to hurt American holders of their debt, according to Fitch Ratings. “We’ve heard quite a lot of anecdotal evidence that there’s actually a lot of consultation with big investors and bondholders in terms of what sanctions might be imposed by the U.S.,” James Watson, a managing director at Fitch, told reporters today in London. “It seems there has been a significant push back on potentially sanctioning companies that have significant foreign debt.”
  • Vale Profit Falls After China Slowdown Weighs on Iron-Ore. Vale SA (VALE), the largest iron-ore producer, posted a steeper decline in first-quarter profit than analysts expected after selling the steel ingredient 25 percent cheaper than a market reference price. Shares slumped. Mounting concern that economic growth is slowing in China, Vale’s biggest buyer, is pushing down iron-ore prices and holding the miner’s shares close to a five-year low.
  • Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas at Risk of Criminal Charges Over Taxes, Business With Banned Nations. Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) and BNP Paribas SA (BNP) are at risk of being criminally charged by U.S. and state prosecutors, a person familiar with the matter said, signaling that authorities are taking a tougher approach as they seek to resolve probes of major banks.
  • European Stocks Little Changed Before Fed Policy Decision. European stocks were little changed from a three-week high, as a report showing U.S. economic growth stalled offset better-than-forecast jobs data, while investors awaited a Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA slipped 1.1 percent after reporting a drop in first-quarter profit. BNP Paribas SA fell 3.2 percent after saying it may need to pay much more than the $1.1 billion it set aside for alleged U.S. sanctions breaches. Alstom (ALO) SA jumped 9.3 percent as General Electric Co. made a 12.4 billion-euro ($17.2 billion) bid for the French company’s energy business. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 0.1 percent to 337.89 at the close of trading, paring its monthly advance to 1.1 percent.
Wall Street Journal:
  • EU Arms Sales to Russia Should Be Restricted as Part of More Severe Sanctions -UK. Restrictions on arms sales to Russia should be part of any so-called stage three European Union sanctions on Moscow if there is any further Russian incursion into southern and eastern Ukraine, Prime Minister David Cameron said on Wednesday. The comment is likely to be noted in France, which has a 1.4 billion euro ($1.95 billion) order from Russia for two Mistral-class warships. The first Mistral, a high-tech amphibious assault ship capable of deploying helicopters and tanks, is due to arrive in Russia by the end of the year.
CNBC: 
  • 'Danger signs are there of a future crisis: Apollo pro. Another credit bubble is being inflated, according to a senior private equity executive.
  • Fed tapers another $10 billion. (video)
  • Ukraine's east slipping from government's grasp. Pro-Moscow separatists seized government offices in more Ukrainian towns on Wednesday, in a further sign that authorities in Kiev are losing control of the country's eastern industrial heartland bordering Russia. Gunmen who turned up at dawn took control of official buildings in Horlivka, a town of almost 300,000 people, said a Reuters photographer. They refused to be photographed.
ZeroHedge: 
  • Putin: 'US Behind Ukraine Crisis From The Beginning...Now Leading It'.
  • "People's Republic Of Donetsk" Unveils Independence Referendum Set For May 11th.
  • Presenting Russian East Ukraine: These Are The Cities Controlled By "Separatists".
  • Deja Vu All Over Again: Fannie, Freddie Would Need Another $190 Billion Bailout When Things Go South.
  • Here's A Chart You Won't See On CNBC. (graph)
  • Bomb Blast Rocks Train Station Hours After China's "Fists & Daggers... Strike-First" Warning To Terrorists.
  • Chicago PMI Jumps To 6-Month High; 5 Sigma Beat. (graph)
  • About That CapEx Spending Renaissance... (graph)
  • GDP Shocker: US Economic Growth Crashes To Just 0.1% In Q1. (graph)
Business Insider: 
  • Your iPhone Gathers A Lot More Of Your Location Data Than You Thought — Here's How To Disable It.
Reuters:
  • U.S. government says it lost $11.2 billion on GM(GM) bailout. The U.S. government lost $11.2 billion on its bailout of General Motors Co, more than the $10.3 billion the Treasury Department estimated when it sold its remaining GM shares in December, according to a government report released on Wednesday. The $11.2 billion loss includes a write-off in March of the government's remaining $826 million investment in "old" GM, the quarterly report by a Treasury watchdog said.
0 comments

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:42 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.45%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Social Media -2.42% 2) Biotech -1.11% 3) Steel -1.10%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • POWI, VPRT, RM, CNQR, FEIC, PRTA, ICLR, WSH, ISIS, LL, AUXL, PNRA, DWA, MSCI, COH, NCR, PRXL, WTS, MEOH, DLB, BGFV, ESRX, USNA, EXC, RDA, ORB, ECOM, EBAY, KRA, SWI, BURL, CG, STAA, EZPW, ZLTQ and NDLS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ESRX 2) XCO 3) AKAM 4) EBAY 5) COH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) EXC 2) ABEV 3) VALE 4) BGG 5) AGCO
Charts:
  • ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
  • Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
0 comments

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 11:55 AM
Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value -.06%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) HMOs +2.23% 2) Agriculture +.79% 3) Computer Services +.38%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • POM, ENR, AZPN, LOGM, CHRW, LVLT, HPY, SLCA, CHU, GWPH, MGAM, PBF, TWI, WLP, GMED, KLIC and SEE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) RDN 2) KSU 3) NCR 4) SGYP 5) LVLT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LMT 2) WMT 3) AMZN 4) AAPL 5) IBM
Charts:
  • ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
  • Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
0 comments

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:52 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Putin Says Sanctions Jeopardize U.S., EU Energy Deals. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that further economic sanctions over the Ukraine crisis may lead Russia to reconsider participation by U.S. and European Union companies in energy and other key industries. While his government has prepared measures to retaliate for penalties imposed by the U.S. and its allies, Putin told reporters in Minsk, Belarus, yesterday that he doesn’t consider them necessary for now, though that may change. If sanctions continue, “then of course we will have to consider who’s working and how in the Russian Federation, in the key sectors of the Russian economy, including energy,” he said. “We really don’t want to take these reciprocal steps.”   
  • Moody’s Says Developer Default Risk to Slow Sales: China Credit. Moody’s Investors Service said the risk more Chinese property developers will default, after the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co., will make it harder for them to raise funds just as apartment sales cool. The builders have issued $500 million of offshore yuan or dollar bonds this month, compared with $1.6 billion in the same period last year and a record $9.2 billion in the first quarter, data compiled by Moody’s show. The price of property securities, which account for 32 percent of a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index of China dollar bonds, slumped 4.9 percent in the past year, paring their returns to 0.9 percent. That compares with a 1.6 percent total gain for dollar bonds globally, according to Bank of America.
  • Asian Stocks Rise Ahead of Bank of Japan, Fed Decisions. Asian stocks rose as investors weighed corporate earnings before the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve report on monetary policy. Kyocera Corp. climbed 4.2 percent in Tokyo after the electronics and solar-panel maker reported full-year profit that beat analyst estimates. SoftBank Corp., the Japanese phone company controlled by Masayoshi Son, gained 1.7 percent after unit Sprint Corp. boosted its full-year forecast and reported first-quarter sales that topped estimates. Woolworths Ltd. slipped 2.6 percent as quarterly food and liquor sales by the Australian retailer fell short of expectations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.2 percent to 137.76 as of 9:40 a.m. in Tokyo, with all 10 industry groups on the gauge rising.
  • Deutsche Bank Among 15 Europe Lenders Cut to Negative by S&P. Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Germany’s largest lender, was among 15 European banks that had their outlooks cut to negative by Standard & Poor’s on the prospect that governments are less likely to provide aid. The outlooks were lowered from stable “to reflect our view that extraordinary government support is likely to diminish as regulators implement resolution frameworks,” the ratings firm said yesterday in a statement.
  • Boiled Frog Syndrome Invades CMBS as Risks Mount: Credit Markets. The growing din surrounding loosening standards in the commercial-mortgage bond market is doing little to deter buyers. Investors are lapping up the debt and accepting less interest to do so even as Moody's Investors Service warns that risk are building in debt linked to properties ranging from shopping malls and skyscrapers to hotels. After a month-long lull in issuance, Wall Street banks were poised to sell about $3.6 billion of the securities yesterday, a week after the ratings company said investors were facing a case of "boiling frog syndrome," where they fail to react to gradually increasing threats until it's too late. "There is no doubt underwriting is getting weaker," Keerthi Raghavan, a debt analyst at Barclays Plc in New York, said in an interview. The pace of deterioration "really picked up steam starting in the middle of 2013."
  • NYSE Options Markets Cancel Almost 20,000 Trades After Error. A computer malfunction at IntercontinentalExchange Group Inc. (ICE)’s two U.S. options exchanges caused almost 20,000 erroneous trades, which the market operator later canceled.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Supreme Court Revives EPA Rule on Air Pollution Across State Lines. Court's 6-2 Ruling Is Victory for Obama Administration; 28 States Will Have to Reduce Power-Plant Emissions. The Environmental Protection Agency can reinstate limits on power-plant pollution that blows across state lines, the Supreme Court ruled Tuesday, handing a defeat to electric utilities that opposed the effort as costly regulatory overreach. The court's 6-2 ruling breathes new life into a 2011 EPA measure known as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, which requires 28 states to reduce emissions that hurt air quality in...
  • Enrollment in Student-Debt Forgiveness Programs Soars in 2014. Two federal programs that offer to wipe away huge accumulations of student debt have grown at a rapid clip this year, putting them among the government’s fastest-growing forms of financial assistance. The Journal reported last week that enrollment in the plans—which allow students to rack up big debts and then forgive the unpaid balance after a set period—surged nearly 40% in the second half of 2013.
  • Pro-Russia Forces Extend Grasp in Ukrainian City of Luhansk. Militants Break Down Doors to Government Building; President Criticizes Local Police. Pro-Russia militants in masks broke down doors and stormed government buildings Tuesday in another area of Ukraine that hugs the Russian border, as the new government in Kiev criticized local police for failing to stem the growing unrest.
  • A Foreign Policy Flirting With Chaos. The most egregious case of fecklessness has been on Syria. Doubts about American dependability were raised far and wide. American foreign policy is in troubling disarray. The result is unwelcome news for the world, which largely depends upon the United States to promote order in the absence of any other country able and willing to do so. And it is bad for the U.S., which cannot insulate itself from the world.
Fox News: 
  • Benghazi emails suggest White House aide involved in prepping Rice for ‘video’ explanation. Newly released emails on the Benghazi terror attack suggest a senior White House aide played a central role in preparing former U.N. ambassador Susan Rice for her controversial Sunday show appearances -- where she wrongly blamed protests over an Internet video.
CNBC: 
  • Trader tries to make $18M betting against S&P ETF. In one of the Tuesday's biggest options trades, a major player spent $1.6 million on a highly risky bearish bet against the market.
  • Twitter(TWTR) net loss widens substantially, shares drop after-hours. Twitter's net loss grew by more than $100 million in the first quarter, though the company's operating earnings and revenue beat Wall Street estimates. Shares fell 9 percent in after-hours trading.
  • California drove Toyota out of state: Torrance Mayor. (video) Torrance Mayor Frank Scotto blames the state of California for Toyota Motor's decision to relocate its North American headquarters from the city to Plano, Texas. "The state of California lost Toyota," Scotto said on "Power Lunch" Tuesday. He pointed to a number of issues in the Golden State that negatively affect companies' bottom line: tax structure, workers' compensation and liability insurance.
  • Bank of Japan keeps monetary policy unchanged.
Zero Hedge:
  • The West Prepares: These Are All NATO Aircraft Deployments In Response To The Ukraine Crisis.
  • Coiling, Complacency, And The "Three" Coupon Treasury Markets. (graph)
  • Japanese Manufacturing PMI Collapses At Fastest Pace On Record; Drops To 14 Month Lows. (graph)
  • The Real Unemployment Rate: In 20% Of American Families, Everyone Is Unemployed.
  • Elliott's Paul Singer On How It All Will End: "Badly, We Guess".
  • The Sum Does Not Equal The Parts: China Provincial GDP Signals Sharper Slowdown.
  • Abenomics Agony: Japanese Base Wages Tumble By Most In 2014 (22nd Consecutive Monthly Drop). (graph)
  • Quote Of The Day: Larry Summers To Elizabeth Warren - "Insiders Don't Criticize Other Insiders".
Business Insider:
  • 12 Disturbing Photos Of Pro-Russia Separatists Taking Over East Ukraine.
 CNN:
  • SEC chair: We've found 'bogus' private equity and hedge fund fees. SEC Chairwoman Mary Jo White today testified in front of the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services, to discuss the Agency's recent activities and 2015 budget request. As part of that overview, White suggested that recent examinations of hedge fund and private equity fund managers have uncovered some very unsavory activities. Namely, charging improper fees to investors and portfolio companies.
Reuters:
  • U.S. Steel(X) returns to profit but warns of weaker 2nd qtr. United States Steel Corp returned to profit in the first quarter, but the steelmaker said Tuesday it expected reduced operating income in the second quarter as cold weather slowed transportation of raw materials and finished products. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker also said it expects to report a loss in its flat-rolled segment, its biggest unit by shipments, in the second quarter. Its shares fell in after-hours trading.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.50 -2.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 88.5 -.25 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.35%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (HES)/1.01
  • (IP)/.54
  • (TWX)/.88
  • (ADP)/1.08
  • (IACI)/.55
  • (H)/.11
  • (WLP)/2.07
  • (SPW)/.21
  • (ADT)/.43
  • (JLL)/.43
  • (SEE)/.25
  • (PSX)/1.34
  • (PBI)/.40
  • (IRF)/.20
  • (WBMD)/.10
  • (WDC)/1.88
  • (YELP)/-.06
  • (TSO)/.39
  • (MET)/1.39
  • (IPI)/-.02
  • (WMB)/.24
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for April is estimated to rise to 210K versus 191K in March.
8:30 am EST
  • The 1Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in 4Q.
  • Advance 1Q GDP is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +2.6% gain in 4Q.
  • Advance 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +3.3% gain in 4Q.
  • Advance 1Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a +1.6% gain in 4Q.
  • Advance 1Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.3% gain in 4Q.
9:00 am EST
  • ISM Milwaukee for April is estimated to fall to 56.0 versus 56.03 in March.
9:45 am EST
  • Chicago Purchasing Manager for April is estimated to rise to 57.0 versus 55.9 in March.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +2,111.110 barrels versus a +3,524,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -422,220 barrels versus a -274,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to rise by +683,330 barrels versus a +597,000 barrel gain the prior week.
2:00 pm EST
  • The Fed's QE3 Pace for April is estimated to fall to $45B versus $55B prior.
  • The Fed is estimated to leave the benchmark fed funds rate at .25%.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone inflation data, German unemployment rate, BoJ decision and the weekly MBA mortgage applications report could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
0 comments

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less Emerging Markets/European Debt Angst, Central Bank Hopes, Short-Covering, Biotech/Gaming Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 3:25 PM
Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.64 -2.36%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.80 -.22%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.21 -1.20%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.76 -1.93%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 144.0 +69.41%
  • Total Put/Call .91 +1.11% 
  • NYSE Arms .93 -30.49% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.44 -.81%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.76 -1.95%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 35.30 +.31%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 88.98 +.11%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 279.28 -2.50%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 358.31 +.96%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 21.50 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 -3.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 225.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $108.30/Metric Tonne -.28%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.0 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -26.30 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -2.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +202 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
0 comments

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 2:54 PM
Bloomberg: 
  • EU Joins U.S. With New Sanctions on Russia Over Ukraine. The European Union widened sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine, following similar steps yesterday by the U.S., which called separatist violence in the country’s east “terrorism, pure and simple.” The EU added Russian Deputy Premier Dmitry Kozak to a list of people facing travel bans and asset freezes along with others including pro-Russian separatist leaders, according to a statement today in the EU’s Official Journal. The U.S. targeted seven people, including Kozak and Igor Sechin, head of oil giant OAO Rosneft (ROSN), and 17 companies yesterday linked to allies of President Vladimir Putin, such as InvestCapitalBank. 
  • China Test Shows Bad Loan Surge Would Hurt Banks’ Capital. China’s systemically important banks may see their capital adequacy ratio fall to 10.5 percent in the event bad loans surge fivefold, according to a stress test by the nation’s central bank. The average capital adequacy ratio of the 17 banks, which account for 61 percent of China’s banking assets, may fall to 10.5 percent from the end-2013 level of 11.98 percent should nonperforming loans increase 400 percent in the worst-case scenario, the People’s Bank of China said in its annual financial stability report yesterday. 
  • European Stocks Advance to Three-Week High Amid Earnings. European stocks rose to a three-week high as companies from Deutsche Bank AG to Statoil ASA reported earnings that beat estimates. Deutsche Bank climbed 2.2 percent after Europe’s largest investment bank said first-quarter profit dropped less than projected. Statoil gained 4.5 percent. Nokia Oyj gained 2.9 percent after naming a new chief executive officer and saying it will spend about 5 billion euros ($6.9 billion) on dividends, share buybacks and debt reduction. ABB Ltd. fell the most in four years after the world’s largest maker of power transformers posted quarterly profit that missed estimates. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rallied 1.2 percent, the most in a week, to 338.12 at the close of trading in London.
  • Apollo’s Rowan Sees ‘Danger Signs’ of Crisis in Debt Markets. Apollo Global Management LLC (APO) co-founder Marc Rowan said he sees many signs of a bubble in the credit markets that could lead to a financial crisis. “All the danger signs are there of a future crisis,” Rowan said today at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California. “We’re back to doing exactly the same things that were done in the credit markets during the crisis. Our job is to step wisely and try to avoid that.” Rowan joins a growing chorus of regulators and investors, including Marathon Asset Management LP and DoubleLine Capital LP’s Jeffrey Gundlach, expressing concern about aggressive underwriting standards as the Federal Reserve’s zero-interest policy extends into a sixth year.
  • Senate Democrats Weigh Vote Backing Keystone XL. U.S. Senate Democratic leaders are considering scheduling a vote on a non-binding resolution urging approval of TransCanada Corp. (TRP)’s Keystone XL pipeline, according to two Senate Democratic aides. 
  • Growing Concern on Job Openings Dents U.S. Confidence: Economy. Americans grew concerned in April that jobs have become more difficult to land, prompting an unexpected drop in confidence from a six-year high. The Conference Board’s sentiment index decreased to 82.3 from 83.9 a month earlier.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • NBA Bans Clippers' Donald Sterling for Life for Alleged Racist Comments. Commissioner Adam Silver Says He Will Urge League's Board of Governors to Force Team's Sale.
  • U.S. Banks to Help Authorities With Tax Evasion Probe. Swiss Units of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley To Hand Over Details.
CNBC:
  • US doesn't have a rational tax policy: Jack Welch. (video)
ZeroHedge: 
  • Isolated Russia Makes Friends: To Hold Military Drill With China; Strikes Multi-Billion Deals Qatar And Iran.
  • David Stockman Ruins The Perennial Myth Of Crumbling Infrastructure.
  • Time For More Costs? Pro-Russian Forces Storm Luhansk Police Buildings - Live Feed. (video)
  • China Slams US Over Russian Sanctions; Warns "Will Escalate Tensions".
  • Rents Soar To Record High As Homeownership Rate Plunges To 19 Year Low. (graph)
  • Case-Shiller Has Longest Home Price Decline Stretch Since 2012; 13 Of 20 Cities See Price Drops. (graph)
Business Insider:
  • This Is What The Decline Of Facebook(FB) Looks Like. (graph)
  • Harvard Poll Shows Millennials Have 'Historically Low' Levels Of Trust In Government.
  • Here Are Some Former High-Flying Momentum Stocks That Have Been Absolutely Smashed In Less Than Two Months.
  • Pro-Russia Separatists Have Now Seized Government Buildings In At Least 10 East Ukraine Cities.
  • China's Resource-Dependent And Manufacturing-Heavy Provinces Are Seeing A Major Slowdown.
  • Obama's Approval Rating Is At Its Lowest Point Ever, And It Could Mean Major Disaster For Democrats.
  • The US Stock Market Has A Valuation Problem. (graph)
Financial Times:
  • Police become focus of control as Kiev loses grip in the east. Ukrainian authorities appear to have lost control of law and order in Donetsk, the capital city of the province at the heart of separatist unrest, as violent pro-Russia militants roam the streets unchallenged.
Telegraph:
  • Nul points for EU’s stress-test comedy, but French property slump rings true. Be careful if you are planning to buy a house in France. The EU stress test for banks released this morning expects French property to fall 1.6pc this year and another 1pc in 2015 even if things go well. The “adverse scenario” is a cumulative drop of 31pc by the end of 2016. This reflects the worries of French regulators who fed the data to the European Banking Authority.
Valor:
  • Brazil Carmakers See 2014 Truck Sales Falling 5-12%.
0 comments

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:41 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.14%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Hospitals -1.12% 2) Construction -.70% 3) Utilities -.62%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • DDD, NRF, ROK, WNC, RYN, CLGX, KN, PRTA, GTLS, COH, GOGO, CLGX, ABB, SLAB, JEC, CP, TCS, WAT, SHPG, CHKP, CIT, DBD, GT, NANO, BSX, FTK, IPGP, ENT and ADEP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) COH 2) RAX 3) EXC 4) CRUS 5) CZR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) GT 2) HCA 3) WAT 4) UIS 5) JEC
Charts:
  • ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
  • Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
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Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 12:21 PM
Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.59%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +4.11% 2) Coal +3.39% 3) Social Media +2.49%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • FUR, ORB, CRUS, BWLD, KLIC, WLK, FDP, SGY, IRWD, WWW, WDAY, CBST, LMNX, HW, AMG, ATK, CRUS, MGM, SCOR, CMP, ADVS, DFRG, CLC, P, CNX, N and PBPB
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CNX 2) THC 3) FE 4) WLL 5) SFLY
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MGM 2) CMI 3) HRB 4) T 5) IBM
Charts:
  • ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
  • Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
1 comments

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 1:10 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • U.S. Drip-Feed of Sanctions Seen Risking Putin Backlash. The latest U.S. penalties against Vladimir Putin’s inner circle may provoke the Russian president into escalating the Ukraine crisis without crippling key sectors of his nation’s economy. The sanctions imposed by the Obama administration yesterday on seven officials and 17 companies won’t go unanswered, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Interfax. While markets showed relief as Russia’s largest banks avoided U.S. measures, Putin may take this round personally, according to Konstantin Simonov, president of Russia’s National Energy Security Foundation.
  • Russia Recession Risk Seen at Record High as Sanctions Escalate. Russia faces a fifty-fifty chance of recession, the highest since Bloomberg started to track the measure, as the crisis in Ukraine raises the risk of further sanctions, according to a survey of economists. The probability of a recession over the next 12 months rose to 50 percent, the highest since the first such Bloomberg survey in June 2012, according to the median estimate of eight economists surveyed before the U.S. and the European Union announced their latest salvo of sanctions yesterday. The gauge was at 45 percent last month. 
  • China’s Provinces Miss Growth Goals Even After Ambitions Lowered. Almost all Chinese provinces failed to meet their growth targets in the first quarter even after scaling back their ambitions as the government instructs officials to focus on reining in debt and curbing pollution. Thirty of 31 provinces and municipalities reported missing their goals, with the biggest shortfall in northeastern Heilongjiang, where an expansion of 4.1 percent compared with an 8.5 percent target for the year. Most localities’ targets are lower than in 2013. The latest data were released by government websites and newspapers. Premier Li Keqiang risks the nation sliding into a deeper slowdown as the government cracks down on overcapacity in the steel industry, wrestles with shadow banking risks and rolls out economic restructuring measures.
  • Asian Stocks Swing From Gain to Loss on Earnings Outlook. Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as investors weighed corporate earnings and after U.S. equities advanced. Posco climbed 3.1 percent after the Korean Economic Daily said South Korea’s largest steelmaker is considering the sale of Daewoo International Corp. Samsung Electronics Co. fell 0.1 percent in Seoul after rising as much as 0.5 percent as the world’s No.1 maker of smartphones posted first-quarter profit that beat analyst estimates. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s biggest gold producer, slipped 1.4 percent as the price of the bullion headed for a second day of decline. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index was little changed at 475.84 as of 9:49 a.m. in Seoul.
  • Aluminum Declines to Lowest in Two Weeks as Inventories Expand. Aluminum fell to the lowest in more than two weeks in London as inventories expanded. Copper declined for the first time in seven sessions. Inventories of unwrought aluminum climbed to 1.215 million metric tons in March, from a revised 1.171 million tons a month earlier, the International Aluminium Institute said in a report today. In the warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange, stockpiles rose for a third day to 5.3 million tons, the longest stretch of gains this year.
  • Draghi Tells German Lawmakers ECB Bond-Purchases Unlikely. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told German lawmakers that a quantitative-easing program isn’t imminent and is relatively unlikely for now, according to a euro-area official present at the meeting. 
  • Yellen’s Dots Dash Effort for Greater Fed Clarity on Rate Rises.
  • Zell Says Homeownership Rate to Fall as Marriages Delayed. The U.S. homeownership rate may fall to as low as 55 percent because more Americans are choosing to rent as they postpone getting married and having children, said Sam Zell, chairman of landlord Equity Residential. Demographic and lifestyle changes, more than economic factors, are driving down the ownership rate over the long term, Zell said today at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California. As of 2010, about 54 percent of adults were married, down from 57 percent a decade earlier, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. 
  • LinkedIn(LNKD) Slumps as Social-Media Stock Plunge Accelerates. The selloff in social-media stocks is gathering steam. Facebook Inc. (FB), Twitter Inc. (TWTR), LinkedIn Corp. (LNKD) and Yelp Inc. (YELP) fell today, marking at least four straight days of declines. All have lost at least 19 percent of their market value this year except Facebook, which is up 2.7 percent. That stands in contrast to last year, when each stock was up by a record. Investors are questioning whether the Web companies can keep up revenue expansion, as some show signs of slowing gains in the number of users. Social-media companies, which generate revenue via advertisements or subscriptions, have been valued on their promises of fast growth, not the fundamentals of their business, according to Jeff Sica, chief investment officer at Sica Wealth Management LLC in Morristown, New Jersey.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Kerry Sees Ukraine Crisis as Uniquely Putin's. Secretary of State Says More Sanctions May Be Needed Unless Russia Leader Stops Intimidations.
  • Ukraine Crisis. Streaming Coverage:
  • Arkansas, Oklahoma Survey Tornado Damage. Violent Storm System That Ripped Through Central, Southern U.S. Killed at Least 17.
  • Why Pfizer(PFE) Hungers for Deal With AstraZeneca. Offer Comes Amid Global Frenzy of Deal-Making in Health Care.
  • A Doctor's Declaration of Independence. It's time to defy health-care mandates issued by bureaucrats not in the healing profession. 
Fox News:
  • Emails reportedly show close coordination between CNN team, Emanuel on 'Chicagoland'. Producers behind a CNN documentary series on Rahm Emanuel -- a series billed as unscripted -- coordinated closely with the Chicago mayor's staff on everything from camera shots to storylines, according to a new report based on hundreds of internal emails.
  • Hill Republicans call on Kerry to apologize, resign for reported Israel 'apartheid' remarks. A firestorm broke out among congressional Republicans Monday over Secretary of State John Kerry reportedly saying Israel could become an "apartheid state," with the No. 2 House leader saying he should apologize and a senator calling on him to resign.
CNBC: 
  • Herbalife(HLF) beats quarterly expectations, suspends dividend; shares climb.
  • 'Almost every asset is overvalued': Apollo pro. "The quantitative easing and the excess money and the low interest rates have driven pricing up of almost all financial assets to beyond what their intrinsic value might be," Joshua Harris, co-founder and chief investment officer of $161 billion private equity firm Apollo Global Management, said Monday at the Milken Institute's Global Conference in Los Angeles.
Zero Hedge:
  • The Elephant In The Room: Deutsche Bank's $75 Trillion In Derivatives Is 20 Times Greater Than German GDP. (graph)
  • These Are The Top Financial Concerns Of Ordinary Americans.  (graph)
  • Average Retirement Age In America Hits Record High. (graph)
  • Re: Bank Of America. Remember The Lessons From Cyprus.
  • Saxo Warns "Markets Are Drifting Into Dangerous Territory". (graph)
  • Iron Ore Prices Tumble As China Crackdown Begins. (graph)
  • Suspicious Deaths Of Bankers Are Now Classified As "Trade Secrets" By Federal Regulator.
ValueWalk:
  • Apples To Apples Hedge Fund Comparisons: AIMA.
Business Insider:
  • US Air Force Jets Intercept Russian Spy Plane Over The Baltic.
  • Here's The Statistic That Will Be Written On The Tombstones Of Peak Energy Believers.
  • Rick Perry Takes A Victory Lap After Texas Takes Toyota From California.
Reuters:
  • US CFTC launches inquiry into evasion of swaps rules. The U.S. swaps regulator plans to research whetherU.S. banks' overseas trading activity is complying with its rules, a senior official said on Monday, as Wall Street adapts to new rules for the $690 trillion global market. Scott O'Malia, a Republican member of the Commodity Futures Trading Commision, said he had asked the agency's staff for a legal opinion on whether U.S. banks were possibly evading its rules when doing business in Europe.
Telegraph:
  • Without reform, it would be best for Britain to leave EU. In the last instalment of his new book, Roger Bootle weighs the benefits of membership and says the UK could thrive outside the Single Market.
China Securities Journal:
  • China May Use Fiscal Policy to Curb Overcapacity. China will continue its proactive fiscal policy with fine-tuning at appropriate times with more specific industry targets to curb overcapacity, according to a front-page commentary, written by reporter Gu Xin. Heavily polluting industries may have their export quotas reduced if cos. fail to meet pollutant emission standards, the commentary wrote.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.0 +.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 88.75 -1.0 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.24%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.17%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.21%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (ADM)/.74
  • (VLO)/1.41
  • (ETN)/1.00
  • (BSX)/.18
  • (HCA)/.85
  • (MRK)/.79
  • (GT)/.60
  • (DBD)/.24
  • (WWW)/.30
  • (CPLA)/.73
  • (MGM)/.09
  • (DDD)/.15
  • (COH)/.61
  • (S)/-.07
  • (BMY)/.43
  • (CMI)/1.67
  • (EBAY)/.67
  • (X)/.30
  • (TWTR)/-.03
  • (AFL)/1.58
  • (TRLA)/-.13
  • (PNRA)/1.52
  • (ESRX)/1.00
  • (HTZ)/.09
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
  • S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA for February is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.85% gain in January.
10:00 am EST
  • Consumer Confidence for April is estimated to rise to 83.2 versus 82.3 in March. 
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Senate vote on Fed Board nominations, Eurozone confidence/German CPI reports, UK gdp report, weekly retail sales reports and the Barclays Retail/Consumer Discretionary Conference could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
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