Monday, May 10, 2021

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:                        
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:        
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:  
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.0 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 36.0 unch..
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.53 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,046.0 -22.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.35 +.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.89%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.28%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (HBI)/.26
  • (IGT)/-.01
  • (PRGO)/.57
  • (TDG)/2.54
After the Close:
  • (BGS)/.57
  • (COHR)/1.14
  • (EA)/1.05
  • (LMND)/-1.25
  • (QS)/-.06
Economic Releases
6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April is estimated to rise to 101.0 versus 98.2 in March.
10:00 am EST
  • JOLTS Job Openings for March is estimated to rise to 7500K versus 7367K in Feb.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Brainard speaking, German ZEW Index, weekly US retail sales report, 3Y T-Note auction, BofA Healthcare Conference, Citi Energy/Utilities Conference, Goldman Industrials/Materials Conference, (LSCC) investor day and the (HBI) investor day could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Rising Inflation Worries, Escalating Mid-East Tensions, Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.0 +7.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,214.0 -61.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.70 +.17%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.4 +1.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.0 +.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 -8.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .78 -7.1%
  • NYSE Arms .83 +1.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.6 +.1%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 426.36 -.51%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.74 -.07%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 115.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.55 -1.18%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.384 +.17%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.40 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.75 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.5 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  61.75 -1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.55 +.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 145.0 +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 215.45 USD/Metric Tonne +5.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.7 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 161.20 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 61.20 -1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 +5.0 basis points
  • 93.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 93.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -133 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -119 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -77 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -1.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -4.5% 2) Semis 3.6% 3) Social Media -3.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BYND, USFD, PODD, AVID, DBD, SVC, DKNG, QRVO, INSP, SCPL, KOD, PCT, RVLV, INSM, TTD and REKR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EA 2) ASHR 3) MGI 4) BGFV 5) NLS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CAN 2) RIDE 3) EBON 4) DDD 5) GOOG
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Shipping +3.4% 2) Steel +2.6% 3) Telecom +1.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CUE, SOLY, TMST, LPI, BGFV, TEN, HRTX, BCC, VTRS, HEAR, W, LL, CCXI, BCEI, SCCO, CPE, HZO, QRTEA, FSLY, GATO, NUE, DUK, PTON, IHRT, X, AFRM, LZB and RUTH
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) WU 2) PRTY 3) LYV 4) DUK 5) XLI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PRTY 2) TGLS 3) DTRS 4) DFFN 5) MTZ

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -5.8% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
  • 50.3% of Issues Advancing, 46.2% Declining
  • 636 New 52-Week Highs, 35 New Lows
  • 88.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 56.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,244.0 -34.0 points
  • Vix 17.4 +4.3%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -7.1%
  • TRIN/Arms .98 +19.5%

Sunday, May 09, 2021

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (FCX), (COPX), (STX), (NKE), (TJX), (RVLV), (AEO), (VIRT) and (SCCO).
Fox News:
CNBC:  
Zero Hedge: 
MarketWatch.com:  
NewsMax:    
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.0 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 36.0 -.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.51 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,297.0 +21.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 +.04%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.52%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.26%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (APD)/2.12
  • (CHH)/.58
  • (DBD)/.20
  • (DUK)/1.23
  • (EBIX)/.77
  • (ENR)/.59
  • (MAR)/.04
  • (PLUG)/-.08
  • (SGMS)/-.40
  • (TTD)/.81
  • (TSN)/1.03
  • (WB)/.49
  • (WKHS)/-.14
After the Close:
  • (DDD)/.02
  • (BRKS)/.51
  • (EVBG)/-.11
  • (MBI)/-.45
  • (OXY)/-.48
  • (RBLX)/.13
  • (SPG)/2.26
  • (SUM)//-.46
  • (TREX)/.39
  • (WYNN)/-1.98
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Inflation Data report and the (FDX) May economic update could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Friday, May 07, 2021

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,230.0 +1.2%*


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices
  • DJIA 34,771.80 +2.7%
  • NASDAQ 13,727.50 -1.6%
  • Russell 2000 2,265.22 -.02%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 75.75 +3.9%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 296.40 -5.4%
  • Wilshire 5000 43,992.60 +.8%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,582.65 -1.1%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,593.13 +2.7%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 725.10 +1.6%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,396.85 -1.83%
  • NYSE Technology 3,846.40 -2.7%
  • Transports 15,591.5 +3.9%
  • Utilities 913.99 -.55%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 72.44 +1.5%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 54.48 +.99%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,401.26 -.5%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 945.61 +.02%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 470,150 +.09%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 953 -391
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -39.4 +1.4%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 489,711 -2.1%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,353,470 +.28%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -14.7%
  • OEX Put/Call 2.41 +13.2%
  • ISE Sentiment 121.0 +26.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .76 -30.7
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,256.0 +127.0 points
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.2 -6.3%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.4 -3.2%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.5 +2.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.3 -1.7%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 15,155.65 +4.3%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.470 Trillion n/a
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -17.833 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 44.3 +4.0%
  • AAII % Bears 23.1 -10.1%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 206.96 +3.1%
  • Crude Oil 64.9 +2.1%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 213.2 +2.6%
  • Natural Gas 2.97 -.18%
  • Heating Oil 1200.6 +4.2%
  • Gold 1,831.62 +3.7%
  • Silver 27.4 +5.8%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 263.9 +1.7
  • Copper 474.90 +6.3%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 500.0 USD/Metric Tonne +16.6%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 203.50 USD/Metric Tonne +10.8%
  • Lumber 1,670.50 +11.2%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,318.72 +6.1%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 325.0 USD/Short Ton +1.3%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +13.6% +3.2 percentage points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +24.8% +.9 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 12.0% -.3%
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +12.2 +1.9%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 118.2 +11.8%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 193.24 +1.22%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.2 -22.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 162.4 -2.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 62.7 +12.3 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 93.0% chance of no change, 7.0% chance of rate hike on 6/16
  • US Dollar Index 90.36 -1.1%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,727.48 +.14%
  • Bitcoin/USD 57,959 +.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.38 +.37%
  • Yield Curve 141.0 -7.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.57% -6.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.771 Trillion +.39%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10.22 +.15%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 139.28 -3.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 +7.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.96 -1.41%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 175.60 -7.5%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.3 -1.4%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.7 -1.2%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 92.12 -5.8%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.40 +.28%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.5% +9.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 15.25 -1.75 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.5 +.04%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 337.0 -3.3%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.84 +2.0%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 157.58 -5.1%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 63.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 71.75 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $1.868 Trillion unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,206.4 -.7%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 560,000 -9.8%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.6% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.96% -2.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 700,400 -.88%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 54.4 -.6 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +13.7% +20.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.95/gallon +.05/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 3,212 +6.8%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,991.16 +4.6%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 189.42 +7.0%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 299,809 +.57%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +2.3%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -2.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Steel +13.4%
  • Oil Service +13.1%
  • Gold & Silver +9.5%
  • Shipping +8.8%
  • Energy +6.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Biotech -2.9%
  • Internet -3.1%
  • Digital Health -4.4%
  • Gaming -5.1%
  • Alt Energy -7.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (26)
  • IHRT, RVLV, TEN, MTW, QDEL, WW, EOG, COMM, AVID, ARQT, PLBY, CNC, AXGN, TUP, AMN, SBH, CF, RGNX, CEIX, CVGI, GNK, CALX, SCU, LAUR and NKE
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (15)
  • BYND, CVNA, DKNG, STMP, PODD, MNST, RETA, APPN, MRTX, TVTX, SHAK and TDC
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change