Friday, December 10, 2021

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Diminished US Virus Lockdown Fears, Stable Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Tech/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.4 -10.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,706.0 +125.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.33 +.12%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 -1.0%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 29.5 -1.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0  -16.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.04 +18.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.04 +8.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.55 -1.8%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 409.60 -2.0%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.39 -1.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.70 -2.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 191.34 -1.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.26 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 14.75 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.5 -3.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.5 +1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.50 -.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 79.5 -2.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 110.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.0 +3.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.0 -.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.1 -.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 -2.0 basis points
  • 91.9%(-.7 percentage point) chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 63.4%(-.8 percentage point) chance of no change at March 16th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 251 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -9/100K people
  • 47% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -2.0 percentage points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +177 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +80 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long

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