Stocks Finish Lower on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Multiple Contraction, Global Virus Lockdown Worries, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.6 +11.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,541.0 -146.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.66 -.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 -.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.7 +12.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 135.0  +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .79 -14.1%

• NYSE Arms .88 -13.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.40 -.04%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 419.55 +.30%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.67 -2.63%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.9 -2.04%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 194.40 +.36%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.15 +.21%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.5 +3.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 17.75 +2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.5 unch.
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.93 -1.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 79.25 +1.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.30 USD/Metric Tonne +5.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.8 -4.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.8 +.3 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.1 -.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 +4.0 basis points
• 58.2%(-7.0 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th meeting, 38.9%(n/a) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 258 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -3/100K people
• 48% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -191 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -76 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long