Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminished US Virus Mandate/Lockdown Fears, Year-End Window Dressing, Dollar Weakness, Transport/Construction Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  About Even
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.3 -.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,159.0 -40.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.98 +.47%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.3 +1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 28.6 +5.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 125.0  +35.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 -8.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.26 +35.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.55 -.46%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 387.48 -.19%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.75 -.55%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.75 -.07%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 188.0 -.12%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.94 +.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 18.0 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 3.0 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  68.0 -4.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.01 -.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 80.5 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.55 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.5 -.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.8 +.9 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.3 +1.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.59 -1.0 basis point
• 43.5%(unch.) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 29.0%(+.8 percentage point) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 696 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +76/100K people
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -38.3% from peak 7-day avg. of 1/3/21-1/9/21
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +214 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +55 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -28 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/transport/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  75% Net Long