Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished US Virus Mandate/Lockdown Fears, Seasonality, Oil Gain, Homebuilding/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.5 -7.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,784.0 +154.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.33 +.45%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.0 -.09%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.6 -7.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 142.0  +22.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .80 -5.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.14 +81.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.01 -1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 407.60 -1.7%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.36 -.41%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.25 -1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 198.06 -1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.08 +.20%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 +1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 15.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.0 unch.
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.59 +.56%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 79.0 -.5 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 122.8 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.1 +4.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.4 -.3 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.3 +2.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.49 +1.5 basis points
• 47.2%(-.4 percentage point) chance of no change at March 16th meeting, 32.5%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 328 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) n/a/100K people
• 62% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) n/a
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +158 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +54 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/medical/transport sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  100% Net Long